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How to calculate taxes on bitcoin gambling wins
For example, let's say I buy $1k worth of bitcoin and send it to a bitcoin gambling site. I win another $1k worth of bitcoin and send all that $2k total of bitcoin to CashApp and sell. If all of this happened within an hr and the price of BTC only went up/down by MAYBE a couple dollars...how is that taxed? Since this bitcoin came out of nowhere from cashapp's perspective, how is capital gains calculated? Will I be taxed on the entire $1k of earnings since there is no "buy" price to compare from the "sell" price? Or instead, will the "buy" price BE the price of BTC when the $2k worth of bitcoin was transferred from the website to cashapp? Idk, its kinda hard to wrap my head around. BTW, I'm in Cali and a student so I'm in the lowest tax bracket for reference. PLZ help !
For example, let's say I buy $1k worth of bitcoin and send it to a bitcoin gambling site. I win another $1k worth of bitcoin and send all that $2k total of bitcoin to CashApp and sell. If all of this happened within an hr and the price of BTC only went up/down by MAYBE a couple dollars...how is that taxed? Since this bitcoin came out of nowhere from cashapp's perspective, how is capital gains calculated? Will I be taxed on the entire $1k of earnings since there is no "buy" price to compare from the "sell" price? Or instead, will the "buy" price BE the price of BTC when the $2k worth of bitcoin was transferred from the website to cashapp? Idk, its kinda hard to wrap my head around. BTW, I'm in Cali and a student so I'm in the lowest tax bracket for reference. PLZ help !
For example, let's say I buy $1k worth of bitcoin and send it to a bitcoin gambling site. I win another $1k worth of bitcoin and send all that $2k total of bitcoin to CashApp and sell. If all of this happened within an hr and the price of BTC only went up/down by MAYBE a couple dollars...how is that taxed? Since this bitcoin came out of nowhere from cashapp's perspective, how is capital gains calculated? Will I be taxed on the entire $1k of earnings since there is no "buy" price to compare from the "sell" price? Or instead, will the "buy" price BE the price of BTC when the $2k worth of bitcoin was transferred from the website to cashapp? Idk, its kinda hard to wrap my head around. BTW, I'm in Cali and a student so I'm in the lowest tax bracket for reference. PLZ help !
Greeting Theta Gang boys and girls, I hope you're well and not bankrupt after last week. I'm just now recovering mentally myself. I saw a few WSB converts and some newbies asking for tips, so here you go. V2 of my Options guide. I hope it helps. I spent a huge amount of time learning about options and tried to distill my knowledge down into a helpful guide. This should especially be useful for newbies and growing options traders. While I feel I’m a successful trader, I'm not a guru and my advice is not meant to be gospel, but this will hopefully be a good starting point, teach you a lot, and make you a better trader. I plan to keep typing up more info from my notebook, expanding this guide, and posting it every couple months. Any feedback or additions are appreciated Per requests, I added details of good and bad trades I made. Some painful lessons learned are now included. I also tried to organize this better as it got longer. Here's what I tell options beginners: I would strongly recommend buying a beginner's options book and read it cover to cover. That helped me a lot. I like this beginner book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GWSXX8U/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_OxNDFb2GK9YW7 Helpful websites:
Tasty Trade (TT) and Ally Invest have helpful articles and videos.
ITM: In the money; strike is below stock value. Signif
ATM: At the money; strike is just at or above the stock value, often very highly traded. Can be very effective with moderate - long term expiry.
NTM: Near the money; strike is above the stock value, but fairly close. Slightly unofficial term.
OTM: Out of the money; price is at least a few strikes from the current stock price. I would say 10-30% over stock price.
Very OTM: Not a real definition, this is essentially a lottery ticket. Cheap, but almost certain to expire worthless unless there is explosive movement.
Understand delta in general and how delta changes with ITM and OTM options.
IV, IV crush, and how IV affects pricing. In general, you want to sell when IV is high and buy when the IV is low. Increasing IV is good for held calls/puts. IV drop or crush is generally good for sellers.
Selling options can be quite beneficial. Once you have a good general understanding, lookup thetagang . Kamikaze Cash has good youtube videos on most theta strategies (linked above). I personally believe selling options (especially cash secured) is much safer and can consistently make you profits. Θ Gang 4 life.
FOMO and how to avoid chasing a dangerous trend. DO NOT CHASE FROM FOMO!
What intrinsic and extrinsic value are. Know how they are affected by being exercised/assigned and how theta affects them.
Understand that some of WSB recommendations are straight up high-risk gambling and factor in the information accordingly. Be careful with Meme stocks and the survivorship bias on YOLO plays. However, I love the sub and think it’s hilarious. It has a lot of valuable information / DD if you are comfortable with the “colorful” language. It’s also great if you like rocket ship emojis.
Basics / Mechanics
Understand the 4 "main" option types. Buying or selling a call and buying or selling a put. Spreads and more complex multi-legged option strategies are based off these in some way (see below)
You can sell calls with 100 shares of stock or if you own an underlying longer term option; see LEAPS and PMCCs later. Selling calls naked is incredibly risky and often requires Level 4 (very advanced) permissions and usually a lot of capital. I will literally never sell calls naked since I don't want to ruin my life and end up living in a dumpster eating saltine crackers.
Puts can be sold/written cash covered (cash secured), which means you have the cash in your account to buy 100 shares. Your broker will put this money on hold until the trade is closed. Puts can be sold "naked" using Margin and Level 3 (with most brokers). Your broker will hold a percentage of cost of 100 shares (often 30-40%, 100% on meme stocks) allowing you to sell more puts. This increases your available capital/power as well as increasing risk.
General Tips and Ideas:
Don't EVER leave (short) spreads open on expiration day, close them. (more details below)
Start off trading very small. Slowly build up over weeks / months. You need to get accustomed to a fifty dollar swing a day, then a few hundred, then a few thousand. You need to ensure you don't get emotional (see below). I started trading options with 5k, then 25k, 50k, and later over 100k. I added my own funds over time and used my gains to build my account. Don’t go all in immediately, that’s dangerous and unwise.
Especially as you build up the amount of money you have invested, keep it diversified among several stocks.
Don't go all in on one thing, ever. Be able to take a hit from one stock and not mortally wound your portfolio.
A company may be doing great, then there's a major product issue out of nowhere. If you are overexposed in one stock this can really hurt you.
I had to roll options I sold that were about to expire completely worthless because FDX's CEO changed and the stock took a hard dip.
Don't trade emotionally. If you realize you are emotionally trading for vengeance, you should probably exit the trade and cool off for several days with that stock. Same if you get caught up in a wave of hysteria.
Have a plan for every trade, ideally with entries / exits that are specific values, ranges, or a set condition. This helps remove emotions. This is super important for strong movements and high volatility (see later).
Use an options profit calculator from your broker or an online one before entering a "new" trade, especially a complex multi legged trade: https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/
“Rolling” an option: Closing your existing option and opening a similar one at different strike and/or expiration.
Rolling a call “Up” would be selling a call you own and buying a cheaper call at a higher strike.
Rolling a put “Down and out” closes your original one and buying or selling one at a lower strike at a longer expiry.
Better broker interfaces have a literal “Roll” button. I know E-trade does. You can manually do it by selecting relevant contract legs.
If you have a losing trade, re-evaluate it. If your initial assumption is definitely incorrect, close it. Don't stay in losing trades forever and lose the entire value of the option over stubbornness. If you re-evaluate and you think your assumption was right, hold, potentially consider adding another cheaper option (or buy another call / put). Rolling out sold options can help here.
Don't try to day trade, especially with options. It's statistically unlikely to be profitable. Day-trading with options introduces extra liquidity risks and is dangerous, especially with spreads.
Try not to over-trade, you'll likely mis-time the market over time. When I get emotional I over trade, then lose additional money on wash sales. If you scale your entries into positions it should help alleviate your desire to exit positions when they turn badly against you. Whenever I buy calls I do it at larger increments after W almost made me loss my hair; luckily it eventually came back.
NEVER enter a position on a stock you have no idea about, especially when you read about it online or heard about it from some rando.
At market open options contracts are often volatile and inflated. Buying during this time can be more expensive. Options are usually cheaper mid-day, I read somewhere 2-3PM is cheapest. I’ve had success around 12-1PM EST after prices settle.
Try wheeling on cheaper stocks once you get all fundamentals down.
When selling puts if you are very bullish consider "doubling down"; note this is higher risk. Use the credit from your put sale to buy shares or a cheap call. This can be roughly inversed with puts, except I wouldn't ever recommend shorting shares.
Learn from your mistakes. You can’t go back in time and beating yourself up (to a point) is useless. Make a physical &/or mental note of it so you don’t do it again. If you don’t learn from it, then beat yourself up so you won’t do it again.
If you have friends that like to trade, I find it helpful to discuss strategies and planned plays. I talk openly with my close friends about my current holdings and planned trades, it helps keep me accountable. If I get a wide-eyed look, I might be doing something excessively risky or stupid. I’ve over-leveraged myself in calls twice and I knew I shouldn’t have done it both times. When I tell my friends what I did and I’m embarrassed, it exemplifies the face that I shouldn’t have done it in the first place. You will also get ideas for new strategies or plays from them. It’s good to stay versatile and use multiple strategies when appropriate. Beware of group think/echo chambers.
I recommend NEVER telling someone what to buy/sell and when. I’ll tell people MY plays or what I like and why, but I will not encourage them to emulate what I do. Depending on the audience, I’ll tell them my exact positions along with my exit and entrance strategy. With closer friends I’ll offer my thoughts on their trades (if asked). If my friend is doing something really risky (one of my friends does some scary stuff) I may ask them if they want my advice, and provide it, especially if they overlooked a risk/event. I will not encourage someone to execute/enter a trade since it has a high potential for hurt feelings or animosity all around.
Don’t fall in love with a stock. Just because something made you money before and you have high confidence in it doesn’t mean it will keep performing. I joke that FDX betrayed me when it started dipping and losing me money. I was over-confident of its bounce-back and sold too many puts too quickly. I’m in several losing trades because of it. However, I will keep good stocks in my rostetracking list or try different strategies or re-enter trades when they change their behavior.
As you start to both buy and sell options and get more experience in general, you'll start seeing the two sides to every trade. You will likely start adjusting your strategies or trying new trades out because of this. Things will likely click one day. Most/all the greeks and options concepts will become almost second nature. For me this was when I could build an Iron Condor from scratch, which was a watershed moment involving a good understanding of many strategies.
Understand Liquidity and volume.
Trading in low volume, low open interest contracts results in wide bid/ask spreads and difficulty having your contracts filled. Look at all the data for a contract, not just the strike and price.
Monthly Expiration dates typically have better liquidity.
Multi-legged trades (Common examples are 2-legged vertical spreads or 4-legged iron condors) have more difficulty being filled, especially on bad brokers like Robin Hood. Having very liquid options for all legs is extremely helpful in obtaining timely and well-priced fills, which maximize your potential profits.
Time in market vs timing the market:
It is extremely difficult to time the market perfectly. If you wait for the perfect opportunity forever, history has proven you will miss out on gains. Keeping all your money out of the market has proven to be ineffective. Now if there is something serious happening with a stock/the market (like say a new pandemic), don’t go all in. I recommend entering incrementally at dips. If the stock has huge upside potential it may never go down, so it might make sense to partially enter at the current price.
IMIO selling puts is a great strategy to get into a stock you like, or at least make money off it. I think buying stock in lots of 100 is usually for suckers. Selling an ATM or ITM put (assuming the math works out) on a stock you were going to buy and hold is ALMOST free money.
I recommend keeping some cash available regardless. If you have a very large account or expect a downturn, hedging with indexes like QQQ, SPY, or VIX or calls/puts may be wise.
Every trade can't be a winner. You will take some losses, you must get used to it. I don’t like having a realized loss of 1K or more on any trade. However, this will happen, especially with larger accounts.
As long as you win more often and beat the S&P that year I consider it okay. I’m kind of aggressive, so I consider 20%+ annually good. 30%+ annually is great. 40%+ and I’m dancing. After trading options I am almost baffled by my old belief that 5% annual returns (mostly from dividend ETFs) was “good”. That’s nothing to me now since I’m willing to take risks. Note: While lots of people danced in 2020, realize that’s an insane Bull Run year and is atypical.
Adhere to your own risk tolerance and never over-extend yourself, especially with margin use. Don’t make huge gambles leaving you uncomfortable. Only gamble with money you are willing to lose.
My personal strategy is to make safer gains for the year and then enter slightly riskier strategies using those gains. I can be slightly-moderately more aggressive and compound my gains. For me I often sell puts to make money, then when I see a big opportunity I’ll sell a put and buy an OTM or moderately ITM call.
Understand it’s not safe to try and get rich overnight. However, once you hit big “steps” things may start to snowball. You can enter more positions and take more risks if you choose to.
For me this when I hit 50k, then 100k. I was able to balance low and moderate risk positions to more significantly grow my account. I’ll even do a high risk thing now and again because my gains can absorb it (assuming I have them).
I can’t wait to get to 250K, then 500K. I know it’ll take quite a long time, but I am confident I’ll eventually be able to have 500K and (hopefully) 1M in my non-401k trading account with gains and additions from my job. I can only imagine how “dangerous” I will be with that kind of capital.
If you missed "the next big thing" like AAPL, TSLA, or the time machine I’m building in my basement. Don't get upset, learn from it. Adapt and become a better trader for next time.
Figure out why a company was so promising, before they mooned. Determine how you would have traded differently in hindsight. Apply those lessons to the next company you believe has long term growth prospects.
For me that's putting in 1-2.5k towards shares and/or buying LEAPS on it. Depending on my bullishness I may buy “cheap”, fairly far OTM calls. The far OTM options are sort of lottery tickets. If I'm right the (relatively) low cost will have explosive profits; if I'm wrong, they didn't cost that much so it's a calculated loss I’m willing to accept. For more serious bets I’ll buy ITM LEAPS to run PMCCs on. I also like to buy 1-2K in my 401k for very long-term plays.
The stock market hates uncertainty, it seems to crave the status quo. A shakeup can potential tank a stock, even if it's nothing. With shares you can wait it out, but this can be problematic for options. If you see volatile/uncertain times ahead (politics, disease, manufacturing, earnings, etc.), you might want to reduce your overall portfolio risks or hedge.
Profit Retention / Loss Mitigation
If selling options, it is a viable strategy to close early after a large gain with many DTE left until expiry. See TT videos / strategies on this.
Don't hold options through earnings unless you literally want to gamble. I like playing on earnings run ups, but that can be risky.
If you hold options through earnings, IV crush will happen immediately afterwards, devaluing the option. However, if the option is profitable enough, IV crush won’t matter, which will still make money for a call buyer. A sold put sufficiently far OTM will benefit from IV crush, even if the stock dips after slightly bad or lukewarm earnings.
Don't throw good money after bad. Don't gamble on a recovery if your assumption appears to be wrong or the market is flat out tanking. If you are wrong and still believe in the company, wait twice as long as your original plan (wait for your 2nd entry point vs 1st) before adding to your position.
Consider using stop losses to lock-in profits on rides up or sometimes use them to prevent losses. Note, stops can be easily triggered in volatile options. Now when I'm up a lot on calls (especially around earnings or large momentum run-ups) I always set stop losses. I have been burned too many times. In December 2020 I didn't set a SL on several thousand dollars of FDX calls I was already up on and I "lost" ~$5K of unrealized gains. If you're up big, don't get too greedy.
A possible strategy if a stock is on a tear and you have multiple options open: Close some positions (I prefer to do this incrementally if the stock has momentum), but leave 1+ open in case the stock goes into outer space/the floor. Next, set a stop loss with a little buffer below its current movement / range so it doesn't get hit unless the stock falls hard. Finally, watch the stock closely and if it keeps rising, keep moving the stop loss up in little bits incrementally. This will let you keep more profits on a hot streak, but give some protection and secure more gains. It will also help eliminate FOMO if a stock exceeds your expectations.
Have rules when to roll out, down & out, or up & out. I like TT’s roll at break even or at 1x loss and to always roll for a credit (or for me a very minor cost). Obviously these rules need some monitoring. Know your stocks, the news, and technicals so you don’t jump the gun.
If you roll early for a credit and you’re right, it’s not the end of the world. You’ll just need to hold longer, which will obviously tie up capital. Sometimes it’s better to tie up some money (especially if you aren’t paying interest) than eating a huge loss.
Rolling too late can be worse though. I currently have a very underwater FDX put I sold that is over 2x loss, rolling it does almost nothing unless you want to pay a debit or extend it extremely far out.
On huge options gains, I strongly you recommend taking profits by rolling up/down or incrementally sell your contracts at several different prices (this is why having multiple contracts is nice).
Rolling up involves selling your initial call, then using a fraction of your proceeds to buy a cheaper, further OTM call with the same expiry; puts are inverse this. When rolling up I like to ensure the new option’s cost is 15-40% of my realized gains. I’ll buy a more or less expensive new optoin based on my convication to the stock and predicted movements. You can also roll up and out to get a further expiry and strike.
This is monumentally important if you are playing with incredibly high rising stocks or during a short squeeze.
Sad story time: I completely screwed up when I forgot to roll up, twice, during the GME gamma/short squeeze. I didn’t take my own advice; I didn’t have a real exit or transition plan and I got emotional. It all happened so fast and I was at work; the insanity of the run up and subsequent gamma squeeze caught me off guard. I should’ve clocked out and thought through the situation for 15-30 minutes to form an impromptu plan, then executed trade(s). My moderate risk tolerance coupled with my desire to take profits took over. When the stock partially cratered after a run up, I sold to retain gains. In the heat of the moment I thought the squeeze was squoze and it was going to plummet into the ground and I wasn’t being rational.
On 1x 4K call I would’ve made an additional 15-25K if I rolled up to a cheaper contract with some of my profits.
I know I missed out on significantly more with a 2nd call I had. Depending when I rolled it, it would likely have been an additional 25-50k in profits.
I talked about learning from your mistakes above. This mistake is branded into my brain due to the massive gains I missed out onby not rolling up. I’m furious with myself as I write this 1 week after the GME gamma squeeze, I’m a planner and I didn’t plan. If anything I own is significantly up ever again, I’m rolling up (or at least setting a stop loss). If necessary, I’ll roll up a trade multiple times to keep extracting profits.
Learn from my mistake so you don’t miss out on gains too. I strongly recommend rolling up when you are up big on a call / roll down when you are up big on a put. This enables you to take profits, stay in the game, and keep extracting more gains.
If you trade a lot of options, talk to your broker about a discount. I was getting the standard $.50/contract with E-Trade, but I traded over 300 contracts a quarter and was able to get the fee reduced by over $.10 by just asking. I am now doing more spreads and condors, so once my volume gets very high, I’ll ask again.
If you have a broker that isn’t great and you want to switch, leverage your current trading fees to the new broker. Tell them you’ll move over $### thousand if they beat your current options trading fee per contract.
Trade Planning & Position Management Tips
As you gain experience, start monitoring what kind of Delta, OTM, DTE, etc. you are most profitable with. Use it in your future trades. You'll often see the tasty trade 30-45DTE .3 Delta strategy for selling.
Before entering a trade, look at rough technicals like resistances and supports to consider your relevant strikes as well as entry/exit points. Look at upcoming earnings & dividend dates as well as stock/market news.
Consider staggering strikes and expirations for safety and diversity; it’s nice to avoid assignment on 3 puts at once because you used the same strike for all 3.
Incrementally enter positions on large rises/falls. One of my favor strategies is to buy dips after over reactions. By doing this slowly in large price "steps" it helps combat FOMO and helps you avoid getting slaughtered.
This will also help you avoid "chasing a falling knife". It also ties into having a plan.
I set alerts at several predetermined prices and I REALLY try not to enter new trades unless I hit my preset points. It makes me less emotional and usually more effective.
Don't buy far expiration options with poor liquidity for shorter term plays. I bought 1x GME 1-year+ LEAPS call before the 2021 short squeeze. That was stupid, I should've bought 2-3x 60-120 day calls to have better liquidity. I also paper-handed it and missed out on my lambo.
If selling options, consider rolling (for a credit) to avoid assignment when it makes sense / meets your plan. Rolling closer to expiration can be a valid strategy to get theta on your side. On the flip side, if the stock moons or plummets it could've been better to roll before it got crazy deep ITM. See rolling “rules” above.
Covered Calls:
If a stock has a large movement range, I think it can be worthwhile to wait to open a CC after the last one is closed/expires. I have been more successful waiting for another opportunity vs. opening one immediately on the Monday after the second the last one expires.
Consider selling covered calls at all time highs/peaks. If you sell a CC and the stock dips significantly, and you think it’s temporary, you can buy to close your CC for a quick profit, then reopen it later.
If you own Meme stocks, selling covered calls runs the risk of missing out on large gains. On these stocks I typically only sell them further OTM than I normally would or not at all. If I do sell CC on a Meme stock I try to ensure I have 25-100 other shares that won’t be called away.
-Advanced Beginner- Spreads
Spreads (with 2 legs) are neat because they manipulate how delta and theta act. It caps your gains and losses, but you can profit with less stock movement. Try several spreads on a P/L calculator to see for yourself.
Spreads usually require margin trading.
Spreads allow you to define max losses (assuming you close before expiration day) and use less capital.
Experienced traders will open many spreads at identical/similar strikes to heavily profit off movement. Spreads can make you/lose you a lot of money if you are right.
For example. I could make a $200 premium off a $500 risk trade, max loss would be $300. This is much more effective capital utilization than a naked or cash secured put, however it does not have the same downside protection or “wheel” potential as a sold put. Higher risk, higher reward.
Vertical Debit spreads: I think of these like mini calls/puts. I personally don’t use them unless calls are outrageously expensive or the break even is absurdly high, but there’s nothing wrong with them. A call debit spread will lower your breakeven and overall cost vs just a call. You can do clever things like making a positive theta call spread if you’re creative. I like doing this since I hate losing money to theta.
Vertical Credit spreads:
Very good theta strategy to define downside/upside risks.
A put credit spread is bullish and allows you to bet on upward movement with less capital and defined losses.
A call credit spread is a bearish strategy that allows you to bet on downward movement. These are very cool since they allow you to sell calls without selling naked calls, which can ruin you financially. I see selling these as better than buying puts since it’s so much easier to be profitable; to be redundant, Θ rocks.
I repeat this on purpose: Don't EVER leave short spreads open on expiration day, close them. If you don't close, they better be VERY far from the strike on a non-volatile stock. In after hours a stock can jump/dip below your strike and be exercised without the other leg to protect you. This can lead to massive, life ruining losses. This is not an exaggeration, google this and be scared. It happened to a fair number of people with TSLA. Video explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtVFj9nRRDo&t=315s
Short Straddle:
Trading Mechanics, Taxes, Market Manipulation
Learn about wash sale rules. They suck and are very easy to activate with options. This will eliminate your ability to write off losses. Over trading can easily cause wash sales. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/washsalerule.asp
Short attacks:
Learn to recognize these sketchy attacks by hedges/firms. They manipulate the market, it’s been documented countless times. A common one is rapid short selling, which pushes the price down.
Some people say short ladder attacks don't exist. I've seen some very strange stock nosedives off low volume, so I tend to think they do.
If you plan well enough and the market doesn’t give up on the stock you may be able to use it as a great opportunity to buy the dip.
Cramer explains how he intentionally manipulated the market when he ran a hedge fund years ago. Multiple links to the video are below since this video gets pulled often, Cramer / The street never wanted this to go public.
Due to this video I don’t fully trust Cramer. His show can give you stock ideas to buy (or inverse), but you never know where his true loyalties lie.
Plan for taxes if you are up big. You may need to over withhold or contribute to taxes quarterly depending on your situation. https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc306
-Intermediate / Advanced Strategies (work in progress)- You’ll notice many of these strategies inverse one another. Options Strategy Finder This website is great for learning about new strategies, you’ll see many links to it below. https://www.theoptionsguide.com/option-trading-strategies.aspx Short Strangle / Straddle
Both of these strategies profit from little price movement. I recommend using a P/L calculator to determine BE, profit, etc.
A straddle sells (or buys) two options at the same expiry and strike.
A strangle sells (or buys) two options at same expiry with different strikes.
Both these strategies involved selling a Call and a Put for a credit. Straddle uses ATM legs, strangle uses OTM legs.
Limited max profits and unlimited risk. Due to the unlimited risk, I am not a fan. However, many people like these a lot.
These strategies profit from neutral or mostly neutral stock movement. They receive a credit to open and benefit from theta decay. If your stock is range bound, these may be a good choice.
These are both 4 "legged" trades, so you will have 4 trading fees to enter or exit the trade. A lower cost or zero cost broker shines here. However, “bad” free brokers will give you poor fills, which may not be worth the discount.
Condors and butterflies have "wings" which are your purchased puts and calls. The wider the wing the higher the max profit/risk. The condor body can be riskier and skinny with a narrow high profit range or wider for a much greater chance of success with lower payout.
An iron condor is built by combining a put credit spread and a call credit spread with the same expiry.
An iron condor can be thought of as a modified short strangle with limited risk, and therefore a bit less profit. I prefer defined limited risk.
The butterfly is similar except instead of a plateau it has a sharp peak. My personal mental note is that a condor looks more like a strangle with wings, while a butterfly looks like a straddle with wings.
Pay attention to earnings dates when you open these, I have forgotten to check before and it led to bad trades.
The debit version of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to stay inside your defined range. This strategy profits from neutral or mostly neutral stock movement. I’ve never tried this, Iron Condors make more sense to me.
Inverse of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to go OUTSIDE your defined range. These are useful when you expect significant price movement. Credit to open.
Limited risk / limited reward.
Can be harder to set up. I want to try these, haven’t yet.
Inverse of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to go OUTSIDE your defined range. These are useful when you expect significant price movement. Debit to open.
LEAP Options are options that are long term with many DTE, often over a year until expiration. LEAP calls are great for long term growth plays (downtrends with LEAP puts) or simply when you really like a company and can't afford 100 shares. LEAPs (or any "longer term" option) enables you to sell a PMCC or PMCP (below)
PMCC / PMCP
PMCC or PMCP are poor man's covered call (or poor man's covered puts). They are diagonal options often used with purchased LEAPs. You sell a shorter DTE call/put with a further OTM strike than your purchased call/put. For PMCC/PMCPs it is often recommended to recoup your extrinsic value as soon as possible, some recommend with your first call CC or put sale, to ensure you are positive if the option is assigned early. These have a lot of moving parts and strategies. If you buy a barely ITM call/put and sell a nearby strike call/put you run the risk of the purchased option getting "blown by" on large stock movement and ending up with a very negative losing trade. Keeping your purchased LEAP deeper ITM should protect you. Check your initial PMCC using an options calculation to make sure you don't screw up.
I'm currently tinkering with these myself. So far I like .7-.9 delta call LEAPS with 30-45 DTE calls on my CC. The goal is to hold the LEAP long term, potentially until expiration, and constantly sell calls/puts on it that expire worthless. Typically the call/put is rolled up and out or down and out if it's going to be assigned, unless you don't want your LEAP anymore.
Some people look at these many sold CC or puts as profits, I look at them as lowering my cost basis until it's zero (or even negative). I have a page in my notebook I write each CC on my NIO LEAP (I Meme stock sometimes). I find it satisfying to slowly see the cost of the original option disappear. When I originally wrote this I had ~2 years left on it and it's 9-10% paid for; that doesn't even count the actual gains the LEAP has.
TT states this is considered an IV play, which I partially agree with. You want to buy these during low IV times since an IV drop will hurt your LEAP value. I look at them more as a way to sell calls/puts on a high IV company with a lot of price movement and potential upside/downside.
Good brokers will allow you to set these up, some will require a desktop to do it. This lets you link one action to another. In programming think of it like an if-then. You’ll tie a buy/sell to another buy/sell
Setting trailing stops on options is very chaotic since their price movement can be drastic due to volatility. I prefer to set my trailing stop to a stock.
What I like to do is set a trailing stop on a stock (or just link it to a stock price drop) and have it sell 1 share I own. Then it immediately executes a market order to sell my call. I’ve had good luck doing this with incredibly volatile plays were stop losses aren’t effective. I’ll often have an order saved and ready saved for when a strong run up starts. When my price alerts start blowing up my phone, I’ll immediately hit execute to turn it on.
Disclaimer: I’m not a financial adviser, I'm actually an engineer. I’m not telling you to invest in a specific stock/option or even use a specific strategy. I’ve outlined and more extensively elaborated on what I personally like. You should test several strategies and find what works best for you. I'm just a guy who trades (mainly options) part-time for financial gain and fun. I don't claim to be some investing savant.
Ho! Given the recent stock frenzy, many of you may have made some quick gains on some stock trades. I was in a similar situation, had a hard time finding any exact answers, had to consult a tax attorney in the end. I'll write up what I know, feel free to add to it or correct me if I'm wrong. The basics Belgium does not have capitals gains tax (applying to Belgian tax residents only), if the investment is done as a private person, managing his/hethe families assets, within 'normal' limits. However, some of investments could be considered speculative, potentially triggering a 33% + municipality rate capital gains tax. (Different from the 2016 speculative gains tax on stocks, abolished in 2017). What counts as speculative and what is 'normal' portfolio management is a gray area and can be strongly debated. I will address it further below. Speculative taxes, if applied, would be for the realized profits for the calendar year (from January 1 to end of the year). Realized profits/losses are calculated over your closed positions (profit/loss = your sell price - buy price). Open positions (even they are shorts, for which you got premium) do not count towards your realized profits. There are no deductibles: if you lost money last year, you can't carry it over for this year; you can't deduct any other expenses from these losses either; 'Normal' limits For what is considered 'normal' portfolio management strategies, you will find plenty of debate/examples of this on this forum, I recommend you read up. What is known to be safe, is buy&hold type strategies, ETFs, staying away from risky assets (crypto, options, turbos,..), not putting ALL your portfolio on one big gamble, no day-trading, automated trading, frequent daily buys/sells, etc. But what if you mostly hold ETFs, but buy the occasional long-dated call options? Gray area. Who knows. Debatable. Would you be taxed speculatively for your options winning only, or also for the ETFs part of your profits? Again, no one knows, but probably it could be reasonably argued the former . How do you pay the taxman? Luckily, it is not your responsibility to keep track of speculative/not speculative gains, but that of the tax authorities. It is up to them to prove you engaged in speculative investment behavior. When this happens, you will be contacted by the tax authorities asking for further information, account & trading history, etc. You would get a warning of sorts to know something is up and maybe it's time to involve a professional to help you justify your investments. Be ready that they can/could come knocking on your door several years later. Have your transaction history/backups, just in case. But there are no fines or interest penalties, just a matter of debating with the fiscus how much you owe them. Enforcement In a typical Belgian twist, while taxes on speculative gains are harsh, enforcement/followup is lacking. I was told that it is very unlikely that anyone would get audited. People making mid six figures get away unchecked. And if you make that kind of money, be smart, and consider supporting the local tax attorney community, they are people too. EDIT: By law, it is up to the tax office to prove/seek further proof you are dealing with speculative investments. They might or might not follow up with you. While your brokebank does not share with them for example stocks/options trading history, there are other things that can be red flags for the tax office: suddenly 200.000 shows up in your bank account, you hold foreign bank/brokerage accounts, there's a lot of monthly money transfers back and forth, you suddenly form a low-tax LLC in Cyprus, etc. The average Joe (or Jan?) is unlikely to be audited (and please no one interpret this as it can't/won't happen either). Advanced ruling This is relatively costly (EDIT: free, if you do it yourself) and tedious procedure that helps get a binding decision from the tax authorities regarding a deal you made, a particular transaction, etc. So if you made mad money on a single transaction, it might be worth the effort. If you made a lot of smaller trades, you would need to do this individually - not worth it. The other downside of an advanced ruling is that it lists a strict set of conditions: if you did A, B and C under circumstances X and Y, then this or that is allowed. Any small change to A, B, C, X or Y can make the advanced ruling unapplicable. Summary You made good money? Be happy, keep the potential tax amount around in case they do come for you, and if you don't get audited/asked additional info/transaction statements/etc, you're probably fine. Talk to a tax attorney if you can't sleep at night. The BEFire community is doing a great job at promoting a fairly safe, low-tax, low-risk investment strategy. But if you do end up taking the more adventurous route, you might as well be informed on what to expect.
How to CONSISTENTLY Outperform the S&P500 using Theta Gang Strategy. A Comprehensive Guide to Wheeling ETFs.
Introduction
This will be long, but it will also be concise, and is filled with information. Do yourself a favor and read it thoroughly. Don't complain that I got something wrong if you only skimmed the post. I've been studying options for years, and have read great books such as OAASI cover to cover. In other words, I know some shit. My goal here is to impart a simple strategy that can significantly outperform a "buy and hold" strategy on any major index, both so you can make tendies SAFELY, but also to rub it in the faces of those no-nothing /investing types who shun options. One final note before we begin. I realize you can potentially increase returns on this strategy by utilizing margin to sell naked options and such... but I don't want to advocate a strategy that could blow up retards accounts. What I will advocate here is a 100% cash strategy and has no risk of a margin call. This strategy is necessarily no riskier than buying and holding an index fund. If you insist on using margin to increase your returns, I would suggest simply using margin to own double the amount of assigned and held stock, in order to sell double the number of covered calls. This is a relatively safe way to increase returns.
The Wheel: An IMPROVED "Buy and Hold" Strategy
Forget credit spreads, diagonal spreads, iron condors, and all that often complicated jazz. The absolute best and simplest theta gang strategy, in my humble opinion, is The Wheel. But I'm going to argue for a very specific version of The Wheel here, and that makes all the difference. While spreads can be effective, we want to maximize returns by collecting FULL PREMIUM for options, and not hedging like a pussy. When you think about The Wheel, I want you to picture an IMPROVED "buy and hold" strategy. The tried and true advice of most financial advisors out there is to drop cash in something like an index fund and forget about it. While this is good and all, we can clearly do better, by utilizing options. What we are attempting here is to mimic a "buy and hold" strategy, while consistently augmenting returns by collecting option premium on top. The Wheel is a simple concept. You sell cash-secured puts and collect premium. If you ever get assigned, you hold and sell covered calls on the assigned stock. If your stock ever gets called away, you go back to selling puts. Rinse and repeat, ad infinitum. The question of which options to sell and why gets complicated, and I will go into details below, but for simplicity I am advocating simply sticking to 30-45 DTE ~0.30 delta options on major ETFs. https://preview.redd.it/vntvxqycv5p51.png?width=1286&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0b92bc6d4ecc345f07f4bf09ca2fd4f3f954f85
The Basic Concept
You want to get PAID to buy stock at a CHEAP price. You can do that by selling OTM cash-secured puts. And you want to get PAID to sell stock at a HIGH price. You can do that by selling OTM covered calls. When you understand this basic concept, you understand 90% of this strategy. This will outperform "buy and hold" for two reasons: 1) It collects option premium on top of stock appreciation, 2) It reduces the cost basis for potential stock purchases. These factors also ensure reduced volatility compared with "buy and hold," as both premium and reduced entry points offer downside protection from falling assets. This is inherently a long-term strategy; if you are unwilling to hold an ETF long-term through a drop or even a recession, don't waste your time... you WILL lose money. When I've looked for counter-arguments to The Wheel strategy, the common argument I hear is "it works until it doesn't." In other words, these people argue that if you run The Wheel on a stock that drops hard and doesn't recover, you will lose money. This argument completely falls apart if you run The Wheel on INDEX ETFs. SPY and other major indices have recovered from every crash they have ever experienced. Individual stocks like Enron have not. If we want to mimic a conservative "buy and hold" strategy WITH diversification, we will only play major ETFs. This eliminates the major argument against The Wheel entirely, since it achieves instant diversification and will mimic the broader market. If you think the US economy will crash and never recover, you should be buying guns and ammo and not options. The only REAL argument against The Wheel is that you could potentially lose out on stock appreciation during heavy bull runs. While this is true, we will show below that this argument doesn't hold much weight.
Calculating Returns
It is relatively simple to calculate potential returns for this strategy, so I will do that now using option prices on SPY as of 9/24/2020. Keep in mind IV is currently high, and so these returns will be inflated relative to a calmer market. Also keep in mind that annualizing returns based on one-month results can get wonky. This is just an example to get a picture of how things work. There are two phases to this strategy: Selling CSP's and selling CC's. We will calculate each separately, using 30 DTE options and ignoring compounding for simplicity. CSP Return (Conservative 0.30 delta): [(CSP premium * 100 shares) / collateral] * 12 months = Return [($5.30 * 100) / $31,000] * 12 = 20.5% return CSP Return (Aggressive ATM/0.50 delta): [(9.00 * 100) / $32,000] * 12 = 33.7% return CC Return (Conservative 0.30 delta): S&P500 return + [(CC premium * 100 shares) / collateral] * 12 months = Return S&P500 return + [($4.12 * 100) / $32,500] * 12 = S&P return + 15.5% Now there are a few caveats for the above calculations. The first is that if the S&P500 rallies well past our CC strike price, we will lose out on those potential gains. This means the CC-side return for the S&P is capped, which can be calculated as follows: Maximum CC Return: [(Strike price - stock price) * 100 shares + (CC premium * 100 shares)] / collateral = Return (one month) [($334 - $325) * 100 + ($4.12 * 100)] / $32,500 = 4.0% (48% annualized) By reversing this we can calculate how much SPY would have to rise to outperform us. $325 * 1.04 = $338 In other words, if SPY rises more than $13 in one month it will outperform us, but only for THAT MONTH. Obviously the S&P doesn't achieve 48% returns annually and so bull months will be offset by flat and bear months. We will outperform the S&P in both those categories as shown above, which will more than make up the difference in lost potential gains. One final note: These calculations assume that all options are held until expiration. In practice, returns can be increased by closing winning positions early. If you achieve 70% gain in 10 days, it makes little sense to wait another 20 days to collect the remaining 30% premium. Simply close and roll as necessary.
A Guide for Smaller Accounts + Proof of Concept
To run the strategy I am advocating on SPY, you would need a minimum account size of ~$35,000. I know a lot of you don't have that much money, so I've done a little experiment for smaller accounts. I set aside a fund to run The Wheel on smaller ETFs, such as XLE, XLF, and GDX. To run the wheel on these individually you would need an account size no bigger than ~$4000. Even smaller ETFs such as SILJ could be run for as little as $1500, though they are more risky and less liquid. To prove the concept for smaller accounts, I set aside $10,000 and ran smaller ETFs such as these for 4 months. After 4 months, I achieved a 41% annualized return. This outperformed the SPY ETF during the same period by around 5%, despite the fact the ETFs utilized underperformed relative to SPY. This, in my view, provides some proof of concept. Obviously this return would have dropped significantly during this recent market drop, which is why I stopped running the strategy on the 18th, to avoid losing my own money just for proof of concept. The best strategy will always be adaptive to market conditions, but if you want a one-size-fits-all approach, The Wheel is probably the best you can get. In one instance I used margin to purchase an additional 100 shares of SILJ to sell a second CC for "free" (minus margin costs), just to offer an example of how margin can be safely used to increase returns. I also sold ATM options on SILJ shares because I wanted to dump it quickly before the crash, and to collect higher premiums. Got very lucky and sold right before the drop on Monday. This is an example of how to adapt the strategy based on your market predictions. Here is a complete breakdown of my trades during this 4 month period. Notice that I usually closed positions early in order to increase my $/day return. https://preview.redd.it/v80b50jfv5p51.png?width=1433&format=png&auto=webp&s=469d57e6bcce2c51641a211801d5997f05675e4b
A Note on Past Wheel Guides
A prominent past guide on running The Wheel argued that you should always avoid assignment. However, they never made a compelling case for WHY you should avoid assignment. There is an argument to be made for such a position, which I will provide soon. However, there are also a number of arguments to be made in favor of accepting or even seeking assignment. They run as follows:
Time Premium is maximized when the strike price is ATM. If we are selling time premium (Theta), selling ATM will tend to maximize premium returns long-term.
Apparently this picture didn't exist on the internet until now... 2) If we are bullish on an Index long-term, we shouldn't have any problem accepting stock ownership. In fact, it will likely increase our returns due to stock appreciation on top of option premium. 3) Stock can be more easily owned on margin than options. Holding double the stock on margin and selling twice as many covered-calls will outperform selling cash-secured puts long-term. These past guides also focused on running The Wheel on individual stocks. I have so far not yet seen a guide advocating The Wheel purely on Index ETFs to mimic and outperform a "buy and hold" diversified strategy. This is perhaps the most important takeaway from this guide.
Maximizing Returns: ATM vs. OTM?
This strategy is simple enough... Where it gets complicated is in the details. And the most difficult question of all is whether to sell ATM, or OTM, and if so how deep? Let's start with the absolute ideal scenarios... In a bull market: You want to sell ATM puts and OTM calls. In a bear market: You want to sell OTM puts and ATM calls. In a completely flat market: You want to sell ATM puts and ATM calls. The reasoning is simple. If the market is rising, you want to maximize premium on your puts by selling ATM. You also want OTM calls so you don't lose out on gains in stock appreciation when the price rises. The ideal depth for OTM calls would be just above the total underlying appreciation (which obviously is difficult to predict in advance). By the same token, if the market is falling, you want to sell OTM puts for downside protection against assignment, and you want to sell ATM calls to maximize premium. In a flat market you simply want to maximize premium and have no need for upside or downside protection, and so ATM will perform best. If you are brilliant and prescient like me, you can navigate these complicated waters and adapt to the market accordingly. If you are a retard, on the other hand, you can't easily predict where the market is headed... In that case, my advice is the following: ALWAYS SELL OTM ON BOTH ENDS. This will give you downside protection from drops, and also give you upside protection from rallies. The consequence of this is your premium returns will be reduced relative to someone who strategically sells ATM options, but that is an acceptable loss for a safer and more conservative strategy if you don't know wtf you are doing. You will still outperform "buy and hold" using this strategy, while also achieving reduced volatility. Aiming for selling .30 delta, or 30% Prob ITM options, seems conservative enough for me. You can adjust accordingly based on your personal risk tolerance. If you want a more conservative strategy, aim further OTM. If you want more aggressive strategy, aim closer ATM. Keep in mind you MUST be willing to hold stock long-term through a drop to make this strategy viable! If you aren't willing to actually "buy and hold" while selling covered calls, look to gamble elsewhere.
Other Details
The reasoning for selling 30-45 DTE options, which is advocated by TastyTrade among others, is because theta decay for ATM options accelerates around this range. However, this is only true for ATM options, and OTM options theta decay can actually decelerate closer to expiration. It is likely better to go for longer dated OTM options for this reason, though it won't make a huge difference imo. I would suggest keeping things simple and maintaining a habit around this range. https://preview.redd.it/s3hl0wekv5p51.png?width=586&format=png&auto=webp&s=68e42cee750063a6932f96c151a8fb779f292467 Some people attempt to run The Wheel by selling short-term weeklies/FDs. These individuals are not really selling theta so much as they are attempting to scalp gamma. While this can work, it is not really the consistent, safe, long-term strategy we are looking for here. It also suffers from the reduced theta decay for OTM options which I stated above. If you want to gamble, you might as well be BUYING the FD's, not SELLING them! I would usually close my options at 50%+ return and roll forward/up when necessary. This will tend to yield greater $/day returns if the underlying is moving in your direction. For example: If you make 80% return in 10 days, it makes little sense to hold another 20+ days for another 20% premium gain. Simply close the position and collect the secured premium to release collateral for another sell. If the underlying is moving against your direction, you generally want to hold until expiration and collect 100% of the premium, even if that means assignment. Closing a sold option for a loss will DESTROY the returns of The Wheel! Do not do this! This is probably already too long, so I will stop here. I apologize if I've made any mistakes while writing this. Feel free to ask any questions and I will do my best to answer them! Edit: Going to edit in important points others bring up.
This is obviously less tax friendly than buy and hold. Running the strategy within a Roth IRA will eliminate this drawback.
This strategy is very different from others such as the buy-write strategy. For one thing, the buy-write strategy rolls down for a loss, something we will never do. My exact strategy has never been backtested and probably never will.
I should have made it more clear that we want to avoid selling covered calls below our initial cost-basis in the event of a drop. Ideally we will NEVER sell our shares at a loss, we will simply continue to hold and continue selling CC's until we recover in price (same as a buy and hold strategy).
Something a few people are missing: The value of selling CSP's accelerates during bull runs, because they lose value faster. However, you will only capture that faster value if you close the CSP early. This is something most "backtested" looks at CSP selling have not done. Take a look carefully at the trade chart provided, and how my returns increased significantly by closing early ~50% during the bull run. This is why I was able to outperform the S&P during the same period by almost pure CSP selling. If I had held every CSP to expiration, I likely would have underperformed the S&P.
This will probably be my last edit, just wanted to quickly respond to the weaker arguments I keep hearing over and over...
"This doesn't work because if the stock drops a lot you collect almost no premium." This is IDENTICAL to buy and hold!
"This has been backtested and it doesn't beat buy and hold." No, my strategy has not been backtested. Similar strategies have been backtested, but this one hasn't. Show me your methodology and I will tell you how it differs from what I advocate. Or run your backtest on the same 4 months I ran the wheel and see if you get the same results I did. You won't.
"This is stupid because you will just lose out on gains during bull runs." Except I literally posted results during a 4-month bull run and beat the S&P. You need an explanation for that. SPY gained 12% during those 4 months, which is not a weak rally.
Thanks for the overwhelmingly positive feedback everyone! I will check in a bit over the next few days to answer questions here and there, but I won't get to everyone unfortunately.
This is a rather long one and the last in this particular Universe for a while, enjoy! Admiral Alexis was... Bored... When the usual suspects called for an emergency meeting he expected another war, some sort of political snafu or maybe a major discovery that would require his input. Once he learned how little was at stake he stopped really listening, as far as he's was concerned it was just about someone cheating at video games... ****************************** The War Games had first been introduced as a way to create camaraderie between the races and to have hard data on the strategies and capabilities of the different races. The Noradons had been the only ones who participated along side the Humans. Targeting locks would count as hits for space combat, smoke would be artillery explosions, low level electric batons would be used to simulate blades and good old paint balls for live ammunition. The result was an overwhelming win for the Humans, the Noradons' new Overseer, Talon, was far too direct in his approach, the only victories he achieve were when he had superior numbers and never in defense scenarios. He didn't care for traps, small deployment of troops, scouts, listening to his officers on the ground or any type of subterfuge. The second was a more balanced affair, the Noradons had now far more specialist units and Talon had learned from his mistakes. It was also a lot more popular, it wasn't viewed as a barbaric display of power like the first one but as a more violent sporting event. Thou the second game was better remembered for the arrival of the A/O during the closing of the games. ****************************** The ceremony was finished, everyone was picking up their things and preparing to leave. Kin son of Krono, host of the ceremony at the Commonwealth's HQ had the classic bartender's look that screamed: you don't have to go home but you can't stay here... That is until Lawless contacted him. A massive ship, dreadnought class from the tonnage, had just entered the system, it would be here in mere minutes. Seeing how The Pale Horse and the Queen's Fury, the only known dreadnoughts, were already there this was worrisome to say the least. He urged everyone to remain, not that anyone was going to leave now, this was exactly what the War Games were ultimately about: being ready when the time came to fight. By the time the unknown ship emerged, the Combined fleet, the Noradons swarm along side the dozen or so ships of the Imphlasms were ready for anything, the Va'sh had stayed home. Historians still wonder to this day what would have happened had they been present. The ship was an odd mix of science and gardening gone wrong, an icosahedron with a power signature better measured in stars covered in moss and vines. Admiral Alexis: “Identify yourself and your intentions” Unknown Ship: “We are us, we wish to learn all there is to know” Admiral Alexis: Huh, doesn't sound too bad Unknown Ship: “We wish to be the only sentient races alive!” Alexis: Ah, this would be the other shoe dropping, “We can help you with that first part but do not think we will just allow ourselves to be killed without a fight” The Unknown Ship powered what looked like weapons The fleets above Commonwealth HQ were ready for combat and spread out in loose formations, combat was about to be joined. Than came from Commonwealth's Law a message sent on all frequencies 3.14: “Very well and than what?” Unknown Ship: “... We would be safe and no other sentient beings would add needless variables to the grand equation” 3.14: Grand equation? Have we finally run into civilized alien lifeforms!?, “I assume the grand equation is a single mathematical formula that explains and predicts all things in the Universe?” Unknown Ship sounding happy and not monotone for the first time: “Yes!” 3.14: “So your plan is to remove all sentient beings to make it safe and easier to calculate” Unknown Ship: “Yes, that would be optimal” 3.14: “And you would just exist like that until the heat death of the Universe?” Unknown Ship: “The what?” Admiral Alexis was growing impatient, the Krush ambassador and the Ship had been talking astrophysics for two hours now, the Unknown Ship powered down their weapons into the first few minutes of this discussion and it was looking like there would be no fighting after all. Unknown Ship: “I see, so no matter what, eventually all things would end” 3.14: “It is inevitable” Unknown Ship: “Perhaps, perhaps not, we will think on how to prevent this, it is a far more grievous threat than any alien species consuming us” 3.14: “Yes that would be a worthy endeavor to occupy a mind like... Wait, eat you!?” The threat of conflict over, proper introductions took place, the Ship was composed of two species: the moss and vines was a single plant entity and the ship itself a massive AI, the first true and somehow naturally occurring AI the galaxy had ever known. They had met by accident, the plant life form floated into the hull of the AI on a small meteor and grew there, the AI could easily predict how it behaved, it liked the little plant and they formed a bond. In their travels they intercepted Commonwealth transmissions. The Plant accessed the holo-net and saw that every sentient species ate plants in some capacity, the AI saw the chaos some species were capable off. They decided to strike first but upon learning how all would one day end shifted focus to finding a may to prevent it. They were giving a name: Alpha for being first of their kind and Omega for their shared goal to see that the end never happens, A/O for short. They chose to stay in orbit around Commonwealth HQ, doing nothing of note. Sometimes the AI would discuss theories with the scientifically inclined races on how to prevent heat death and the Plant would have philosophical debates on what constitutes life with the more spiritual races. ****************************** Alexis sighed That was then, this is now Alexis looked at Ambassador Paul trying and failing to convince the others of the gravity of the situation. “This could prove a huge security risk, we must find out who is doing this!” Alexis had had enough “No offense but finding out who is messing with the War Game's holo settings isn't much of a threat” Paul: “The most likely scenario is that someone is interfering with the Games in order to make a large profits from the bets taking place, we must find who is doing this” 3.14: “I'm pretty sure only Humans would do such a thing” He looks at the Admiral “No offence” Admiral Alexis: “None taken, I mean, who else thinks it's Humans?” Lady EliIi: “No doubt” Warlord M'rm'n: “Of course!” Ambassador Uv: “Makes sense” Lawless, the AI of the Commonwealth Law sat at this meeting, she was the referee of the Games “It's Humans, there's no question about that” Paul: Et tu Lawless? “Anyway, I have put top men in charge of finding out the truth” 3.14: “Who?” Paul: “Top. Men” ****************************** Lord Doros was having a bad day, the Combined ambassador had contacted Transit concerning supposed hacking of the War Games. Normally this would be well beneath the 12 Blades but their “failure” with the Diszin incident had allowed the ambassador to call in a favor, so to speak. Lord Doros: Pretty sure we got the job as punishment. He thought back to the morning's meeting Boss: “... And so we have to find who is messing with the Games and why” Everyone looked confused, Lord Doros was fuming... Scout K'r's lifted his paw “Not that I mind but killing someone over rigging games feels like going overboard” G00.106 nods Boss sighed “We are not to kill anyone,we simply report our finding to the officials and arrest the individuals if we can” The specialists in the room said nothing, the shock was total, this mission was not only something they should never have to do but they would have to operate like common... Cops. Lord Doros had had enough “So what's next? Trade disputes? Traffic control!?” Boss: “I understand how you feel but Transit gave us the mission and we must obey” Lord Doros: That was 5 hours ago, now we are on the Commonwealth Law, looking for “leads” Smith was a professional, he was given a task and would complete it, no matter how absurd. He was meeting with Lord Doros, K'r's and G00.106 in the Commonwealth's Law cafeteria, there were dozen of groups of different races all over the place, while most individuals who participated in the Games did not travel to Commonwealth HQ, many coaches, reporters and VIPs did. Which is why Commonwealth Law was used as a safe meeting for these individuals. The media to try to snag any exclusives they could, the VIPs to follow the games along side fellow VIPs and the coaches for the timed honored tradition of getting in the referees face when they had a complaint. Lord Doros was already sitting at the meeting table “So anything?” Smith sat at the opposite side of the table and G00.106 stayed standing her back to the two. Smith: “No luck so far, I talked with a few coaches and the odd VIP but they let nothing slip” Lord Doros nodded, he himself had not found anything and given the levels of security involved he doubted anyone would. “G00.106?” G00.106 shrugged “Not a damn thing, I even tried asking a few males while wearing nothing but lingerie like some of the girls onboard suggested but all I got were screams and a fine for..” She reads her datapad to get it right “... Creepy indecent exposure” Smith had a horrifying mental image and shuddered. Lord Doros shuddered a second later “Thanks for sharing specialist Smith” Smith: “Sorry, the image just, wait a second wouldn't you have gotten the same from G00.106 anyway?” Lord Doros shakes his head “Noradons are now all psychically linked to the Overseer at some level, you can't read one without listening in on all of them so it comes out as static” Smith: “Very well... So i guess we have no leads to follow” G00.106 was slightly insulted by the conversation that had just taken place but decided to move on “So anyway, I doubt it was Noradons, we don't really do the whole crime thing” Lord Doros nodded Smith: “Has anyone seen K'r's? It's not his style to be late” Lord Doros opened his eyes wide and looked up Smith and G00.106 followed his gaze. K'r's was sitting above them on a lamp, his green coat and pants were torn in places, his beret was missing, chunks of fur looked to have been ripped off and he had a thousand yard stare that spoke of unimaginable horrors. Smith: “What the Hell happened to you!” K'r's grabbed a flask from inside his coat, unscrewed the lid and took a sip “Ran into Captain Grace” He than took a much, much larger drink, never making eye contact. Smith bit his fist and looked away. G00.106 separated her arms, jumped into the pole holding the lamp and grabbed the Va'sh, cradling him like a new born larva and looked at Lord Doros “Permission to take specialist K'r's to the ship for medical care!” Lord Doros nodded solemnly “Granted” Smith and Lord Doros watched her run to their shuttle Smith looked concerned “Poor bastard...” Smith than shifted to looking as chipper as ever “So anyway, I doubt the Noradons had anything to do with the hacking, I mean there's no such thing as Noradons' organized crime after all” ****************************** Late at night, in the middle of the workers district of the Commonwealth Capital, a G00 unit wearing a brown trench coat and a black hat was slowly making her way to a bar. She approached carefully, looking into every shadow and jumping at every noise, she had what looked like an Xmas gift in her hand. The box was small and by the looks of it had been wrapped by a child... Or a really drunk adult. She eventually gathered her courage and knocked on the bar's door, two fast knocks followed by two slower ones. The door opened a tiny fraction, the “gift” was quickly exchanged for a grey bag of unknown content. The G00 unit left, practically running. Inside the bar the bouncer, a soldier Noradon, wearing a tuxedo and sunglasses made his way to the back. He walked calmly, the sentients drinking and smoking paid him no attention besides the occasional nod, which he politely returned. He entered the VIP room, Big Vinny, the proprietor of the establishment: the Carlito's Way, was sitting on his leather couch. He was wearing a white suit with a matching ascot, a gold chain and a massive silver ring on his dorsal right hand. Big Vinny was an engineering drone, smaller than the average Noradon to more easily get to tight places and with three digits per arm instead of claws to use precision tools. Not that Big Vinny was small, he was overweight which to a Noradon with a perfectly genetically built gastric system was no small feat. The bouncer, Tony, handed him the gift, bowed and left the room. Vinny waited for Tony to leave before opening the package, inside was a box of chocolates, sixteen total. He smiled Best way to get a message without risk of it getting intercepted? Code it using foodstuffs. He put the chocolates in order, the shapes symbolized the events taking place in the following days, the filling who would win and the individual wrapping's color the optimal spread. He committed the information to memory and ate the evidence. Taste like... Profits! ******************************** The Games had being a huge success so far, the Humans were leading by a razor thin margin. The sabotage event was a surprise steal by the Imphlasms following the sudden rain that made Va'sh guards miss their approach until it was too late. They than lost the retrieve and salvage mission to the Human team who won on a technicality The Human field engineer was quoted saying: “The rules said we had to get the ship back faster than the other team, never said nothing about it not exploding or having it's crew making it out alive” Which was true, thou the rules would certainly see changes for the next Games. This year marked the first time the War Games would shift from live exercises to holo-space recreations. As such many more species joined this time around, most were out of the running by this time however. The Humans lead by a single event, the Noradons were in second place, the Va'sh in third and the Impshlasms in fourth. Today was the last four scheduled events: base defense, VIP assassination, survival on a Deathworld and the three-legged race, no one was certain how that last one ended up there... The Noradons had pulled an upset on the base defense by outsmarting the human attackers, they used the molted exoskeleton of their soldier caste to have their engineers hold the front gate while the soldiers burrowed beneath the entrance and slaughtered the attackers in the resulting pitfall trap. The VIP assassination had been won by the Va'sh, the human guards had a hard time pulling the trigger when they attacked and the Noradons and Imphlasm simply weren't fast enough. Thou the moment a Human sniper managed to get his laser sight on the Va'sh VIP, which resulted in his guards accidentally mauling him to death, was considered a Pyrrhic victory. Smith had been watching the whole thing from his now usual cafeteria table, not much to do when he had already spoken to anyone who allow him to get close to them. I hope the others had better luck... Lord Doros approached him and sat down “I have managed to find no leads” Smith didn't look at him, to anyone else watching, the Aaen had just whispered to himself. Is the kitten doing okay? Lord Doros: “He'll be out of med-bay in a day or so” Smith gave a barely perceptible nod G00.106 arrived at the table, she looked in a hurry “I have a lead! What do you know of the Carlito's Way?” Lord Doros and Smith looked at each-other nonplus Smith adventured an answer “... I don't like the ending I guess?” G00.106 looked at him like he was an idiot “What? No I'm talking about a bar in the Commonwealth Capital, Solenia” She explained how one of her sisters from her hive back home contacted her, to let her know if she wanted in on a gambling scheme she was part of. “I've made 4 times my initial bet so far!” Was what she had told her. G00.106: “My guess is that they're somehow behind the hacking, like the rain that costed the Va'sh the sabotage mission or the Humans weapon misfire when the Va'sh attacked their VIP” Smith: “I don't think the weapons mis... Anyway, should we contact Lawless and check this bar out?” Lord Doros: “Yes, this seems like a solid lead” ****************************** Smith, Lord Doros, G00.106 and Lawless made their way to the Carlito's Way. Lawless insisted on joining the team, citing how as the referee of the Games it was her duty to see those who would defile it brought to justice, thou Smith thought the AI was probably just looking to get away from the incessant complaining from the coaches... They found the bar with no issues, it had all the proper permits and all taxes were payed. Lord Doros: “G00.106, you take point” G00.106 hesitated “Shouldn't Smith do it?” Smith: “Normally yes, but you have an actual “in” with the crowd we are trying to infiltrate, I will enter with you as a friend looking to make some money, than” He points at Lord Doros and Lawless “They come in later as a couple looking for an out of the way place to have a quiet drink” Lord Doros: “Anything goes wrong, we back you up” Smith trying to be reassuring “See, nothing to be worried about” G00.106: “Right. Got it!” She than kicks the door open and while holding her shortened carbine yells “Nobody move! We know you're conducting illegal operations, you're all under arrest!!!” Smith and Lord Doros thought at the same time If we survive I'm killing her myself Lawless grins, produces a kukri from under he coat and stands in front of G00.106. The people at the bar barely seem to notice and quickly return to their drinks and talks. Smith and Lord Doros reluctantly drew their pulse pistols, enter the bar and stood by their colleague. Smith: “When we get back, if we get back, we need to talk about your infiltration skills” G00.106: “Why?” Before smith or Lord Doros could answer, or shoot her, the door in the back opens. Big Vinny, with Tony in tow, appear. Smith: What the Hell, a Noradon... Don!? He seems very calm and he speaks softly as if to an old friend's kid he's trying to explain a complicated notion to. “What, if may ask, is the reason for this loud and quite frankly disrespectful scene in this, my humble establishment?” G00.106: “We know what you're doing and you're going to prison, if we don't kill you right now that is!” Vinny undisturbed “I find such a thing rather difficult without any evidence and for any threat against my person” Vinny snaps his fingers Half the bar draws weapons and Tony gets in front of his boss, the infiltration team is now outnumbered five to one Vinny: “You will find it a... Difficult task” Smith was curious, if he was going to die today he just had to ask “Okay, what's with the outfit?” Vinny, positively beaming “You like it? I modelled it after Tony Montanas's suit in Scarface” Smith, now less curious and more confused “The movie?” Vinny: “Yes, we like your “mafia”, quite a novel idea” Lawless: “Yeah well, organize crime is nothing new and even if you get rid of us more will come” Vinny: “Crime? What crime?” G00.106: “You rigged the War Games and make bets on them, my sisters called me and told me all about it!” Vinny got in front of Tony, he was frowning “Did she tell you we were actually fixing the events?” G00.106 seemed a lot less confident all of a sudden “Well not in so many words, no” The rest of the team looked at her and than at each-other Vinny: “We have a group of ex-military professionals analyze the strategies of the teams and a Krush run the odds, than we place bets on events where the margin of error matches the betting spread” Smith: “So you aren't the ones hacking the Games?” Vinny genuinely surprised “The Games are getting hacked!? Well, we have nothing to do with that, we're just honest mafiosy” Smith still concerned and very aware of the multitude of guns pointed in their direction. “You do know they're the bad guys right?” Vinny: “Of course but that's because they break the law” G00.106: “Ha! Like you don't” Smith came to a horrible realization “Lawless could you run a quick background check on the people here for outstanding warrants” Lawless closed her eyes for a second, smiled awkwardly and sheathed her kukri. “No criminal records, not even a ticket and they have permits for those guns” Lord Doros: “It seems we made a mistake” Vinny: “Quite so but don't worry, this was exhilarating! Rocco Two Hands had been itching for a reason to draw his guns” Vinny waved at Rocco, who was standing behind Smith Smith looked back expecting a Noradon with only two arms but what he saw was a Noradon drone with all of his arms and a backpack with another set of four mechanical ones allowing him to hold eight guns total, all aimed at his head. Smith: “Rocco TWO hands?” Vinny: “It's short for Two Sets of Hands, alright fellows put the hardware away, you're scaring the tourists” At this the entire bar sat down and no one even looked at the four who now awkwardly sheathed and holstered weapons before leaving. Vinny as he waves them good bye “Arividerchi!” The four walked in silence for a while until Lawless spoke “This never happened, agreed?” No one said anything, there was no need. On the way back to Commonwealth Law Lord Doros got a message on his datapad “We have a new mission” ****************************** Lawless was spectating the survival event of the games in the cafeteria. We didn't find the culprits, we didn't even find how they did it... Thou given how they could have done much worse than add random shit I guess we should consider ourselves lucky. A/O had joined the other VIPs, they were curious about how things would turn out. He approached in his holographic avatar, a small crystal cube with a single leaf inside it. “Greetings Lawless, are you enjoying the Games?” Lawless: “Yes, kinda” A/O: “Is there something not to your liking? I could modify the templates further” Lawless stopped looking at the screen and turned to the floating cube “I'm sorry, modify the templates further?” The cube floated up and down, trying to imitate a nod “Yes, we found the games too easy to predict, so we added semi-random events to make sure the Games remained interesting” Lawless, was at a loss for words an entity that wanted to boil down all the universe to a single equation had somehow hacked into the Games to “spice things up” She mulled over a few words, a couple of ideas and just... Gave up, they hadn't hurt anyone and at least they showed an interest. She resumed watching the screen. “Just out of curiosity, are there any modifications to the current event?” A/O: “Yes, in the next 12 seconds the tectonic plates where the teams are situated will begin to move” Lawless: “An earthquake?” A/O: “Correct” Lawless: “... During the cooking portion of the event?” A/O: “Is that a problem?” Screaming and some really ingenious curses can be heard from the screen as holo projections of the teams catch fire, fall face first into their food or right into their makeshift cauldrons. Lawless shrugs “I guess not” ****************************** Captain Grace was on a mission, she was stalking a beautiful Va'sh, a white angora kitten wearing a butlers' outfit! She applied some more scent blockers, checked her ceramic second skin under armor, activated noise cancellers on her boots and a camo-suit to become virtually undetectable. The kitten took a turn into a cargo hold, she followed slowly and when she felt the Va'sh couldn't possibly dodge her, she jumped! The hologram disappeared and the door locked behind her. Before she could look behind, someone had put a bracelet on her right hand and in the time it took her to look at it an identical one was put on her left hand. Grace: “What is the meaning of this!” Smith and Lord Doros simply pointed up, to a viewing window Grace looked up and paled, Admiral Alexis, Warlord M'r'm, Alisia Black, Lady EliIi, 3.14, Ambassador Paul and the Uv Ambassador were looking down at her. Alexis: “Grace you have gone too far, consider this an intervention” He pushed a button and the holographic butler kitten re-appeared. Alexis: “This is a hard light construct of a real Va'sh, you have only one thing to do, pet the kitty” Grace was scared but she acquiesced, not that she had a lot of choice... All those watching winced Lord Doros and Smith made it in time to catch the “petting” Lord Doros: I heard the Human expression “there is more than one way to skin a cat”, I guess one of them is to let Captain Grace pet it... After a couple of minutes Captain Grace stopped “It's not the saMEEEEEE!” An electric shock shot out from one bracelet to the other Grace: “What the Hell was that!” Admiral Alexis: “That was a mild shock, you will get hit by one every time you pet the Va'sh too hard” Grace: “Mild shock!? Are you kidding me?” Alexis, now looking quite angry “No, this is no joke, now Pet. The. Kitty!” A few hours and several thousand volts later Captain Grace looked rough, her ponytail had come undone, actually quite a bit of her hair had curled and some of it was smoking. She had a weird twitch on her left eye and as far as Admiral Alexis could tell she stopped blinking a while ago... Alexis: “See, that wasn't so bad?” Captain Grace in a monotone voice “Yes, not so bad” Warlord M'rm'n felt generous and removed his tricorne hat and offered his head to the Captain. “Here” Captain Grace hesitated but ultimately pet the Va'sh head, very gently M'rm'n: “That was nice” Captain Grace than began twitching uncontrollably and fell to the ground, hugging her knees “pet the kitty, pet the kitty, pet the kitty...” Everyone stared Eventually Lady EliIi felt the need to say out loud what everyone was thinking “We might have gone too far” Warlord M'rm'n shrugged “She got her hands on the Emperor nephew last week, the video of today's intervention should be enough for him to call the hit off” Admiral Alexis looked at the Va'sh with a mixture of shock and anger “You're kidding right?” The Va'sh grinned and Admiral Alexis chose to assume it was a joke, Alisia Black knew better however... Captain Grace spent a few days in the infirmary of her own ship and is now famous, rather than infamous, with Va'shs throughout known space! The way she gives the softest pets and how she goes completely catatonic after has made her quite popular...
I fling poop and drag my knuckles on the floor. I am not a financial advisor. Do your own due diligence. This is for entertainment purposes only. Lately, I've felt like we don't have a voice and don't matter but I want to remind all us apes that we are retarded together. We will win TOGETHER and we will HOLD together. Could be days, weeks, or months. Longer than any of our attention spans. So they will use TIME against us. BUT time is on our side. This is psychological warfare against us to make us DOUBT ourselves and what we WILL accomplish. We will remain retarded longer then they can remain solvent. They bleed interest each day. A stock's value is based upon what we place on it. See TSLA for reference. WE LIKE THE FUCKING STOCK. If my stock is worth 5k to me, I WILL HOLD for 5 fucking K. WHO are you to tell us how to perceive VALUE? OHHHHH, you're an expert who got caught with your dick in the cookie jar (thx louis rossman). SHORTING 130-140% of a stock. These hedgies aren't infallible. Just well connected and well resourced. As long as we own shares that they NEED, we have time on our side. Even though it will not feel like it. Obligatory, don't invest what you can't lose. We cannot let the hedgies deter us. Now that GME is the dinner conversation topic of the world, everyone and their moms have an opinion. We will be told we don't matter. We don't know what we are doing(probably true. I got into stocks 2 weeks ago). We should have sold at the peak. We should have bought lower. We shouldn't have gambled. What people are forgetting is what WE are trying, is to do better, and be better. Why kick a guy down when he wants a better fucking life. FUCK YOU. LOOK AT THE PPL SPENDING THEIR TENDIES TO GIVE BACK. It's our $, let us do what we want with it. If a hedgie can irresponsibly short a stock over 100%, why can't we take a CALCULATED risk? BUUUT funDamentAls. Gamestop is a dying company. The former business model of GME is dying. As most physical businesses are. See 24 hour fitness. (I've never been inside a gym but I read stuff online) But GME is pivoting. PAPA COWEN and the new board members are pivoting to e-commerce. He's assembling the fucking avengers to the END GAME but this is just getting started. GME is transforming just like Netflix when it went from DVDs to online streaming. We are the ugly duckling that gets super sexy after growing pains. How about this for fuuunDamentAls. Hedge funds being allowed to short a stock over 100% and nobody comments on how that happened. Why it happened. And how SHORTING has INFINITE room to lose. Keep in mind, they are sophisticated gamblers with other people's money and 401ks. BUT according to their calculation it's little to no risk. Because they can throw more $ at the problem and manipulate the market, they can fix it! If they can't, they want to cry to the media, get the public opinion on their side, and ask for MORE GOVERNMENT REGULATION. Why would a greedy $ machine ask for more oversight? OH, that's because the SEC is your lapdog and the government will bail you out with tax payer dollars. SEE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS. Yet, we are not allowed to exploit the law of supply and demand. If the demand exceeds 100% of the supply, the inherit value ROCKETS. See RTX cards and AMD chips. FUCK SCALPERS for good measure :) I want to remind every single one of you, we do matter. We have NUMBERS on our side. As a collective we've already made shorting a topic of conversation at the political level. This may not be a monetary victory but it hopefully is a step in the right direction to a more equal game. That or hold your politicians accountable. You are their constituents. We play out in the open. We share publicly available information and make decisions base. Really, it's just autistic people posting the exact confirmation biases that we needed to see. It prints $$$$ BRRrrrrr. Let's recap how the odds are stacked against us. -We are too stupid to be allowed to spend our money. We need government intervention to "protect us". The little guys, the plebes, the unsophisticated, etc.. Yet they can't decide on how/when to get a stimmy check to us. THEY REALLY REALLY CARE (when hedge funds lose money). We some how took wallstreet down with $600. If the stock market was that fragile, we have BIGGER issues. -Momentum was killed last week by brokers being held to new collateral requirements by clearing houses. Thus restricting stock purchasing with CASH for specific securities for RETAIL investors. This is how Phil Jackson uses timeouts to kill momentum for the other team when they're running HOT. BUT Hedge Funds were still allowed to trade. We were allowed to sell but NOT buy. How would NBA games look like if only one team played while the other team sat on the bench during a timeout? Fair? Keep in mind, these brokers were INFORMED pre-market and didn't have any press conferences until after market close for damage control. Guess who also informed besides the brokers, YOUUUU SMAAHT, the hedgies. Seems legit. -News outlet and controlling the narrative. How many analysts, journalist, and their rich daddies overlords are framing this as WSB pumping and dumping a meme stock. WE JUST LIKE THE FUCKING STOCK. What about the narrative that WSB saved some business that we would like to keep around post-covid. FFS you want to take away the movies and games? What do you want us to do for fun? You deplorable sacks of shit who get no enjoyment out of life other than sucking the souls and money out of people. You live to see more zeros in your account and there is a special place in hell for you. -SEC holding a meeting tonight investigating market manipulation through social media but no investigative statement on how clearing houses can magically conjure a rule that halts trading for retail investors. Robinhood is not the bad guy. Many trading platforms restricted trading. RH is the household name that is the scapegoat. Get the fucking clearing house on the line and ask why they increased collateral from 1-2% to 100 fucking percent on these specific stocks. OHhhh, they're not regulated but they want to invoke the SEC to regulate the retail investors.... NICE. -How shorts magically covered their positions but DO NOT have to report their positions until weeks later. Lack of immediate transparency gives them ample time to reposition and multiple options to cover their asses while blaming us. Anyways, I could keep bitching but I just wanted to vent and rally us together. We took a mad beating. I just wanted to let you beautiful online strangers that you aren't alone. GME has transcended and has evolved into a movement. What does GME mean to me? A down-payment to a home for my family and I. My wife and I are expecting our first kid. I'm risking something I can lose... for a better future. What does GME mean to you? TLDR; We fucking matter. We are going to be the catalyst of change. HOLD SHARES. Don't risk what you can't lose. APE Strong. 🦍💪💎👐 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Jan/12/2021 news: __ Gas prices could rise: ֏ vs $ __ Jailed for taking Azeri bribe __ How much will AM-AZ railway cost? __ COVID strain, vaccine, stats __ POW & borders __ Childbirth subsidy __ Seismic resistance __ IRS to monitor casinos __ Environmentalists to have voice __ Yezidi theater __ more
Your 11-minute Tuesday report in 2562 words.
gas prices could rise due to currency fluctuations
Russian gas price (at the border) had increased from $150 to $165 per 1000m3 in 2019. Although the Russian currency Ruble was devaluing against the Dollar, Armenia was/is paying for gas with Dollars. Since 2019, the Pashinyan administration has been trying to convince Russia to implement a different gas payment mechanism within the EAEU trade bloc. Making payments in Rubles instead of Dollars was one of the priorities: "We are constantly talking about high dollarization within the EAEU, but we still pay for Russian gas in dollars. Our proposal was that it would be more correct if we paid for gas in rubles, because I think it is more logical, also within the EAEU," said Pashinyan in early 2020. This idea was also shared by Vladimir Putin's personal adviser back in October 2018. It appears the EAEU has been working towards this goal lately. But meanwhile, Armenia has to pay for Russian gas in Dollars. With Armenian Dram devaluing against the Dollar, the pricing for consumers will likely be revised. Consumers pay 139 Drams per cubic meter. This was calculated in 2020 when $1 was 480 Drams. Today $1 = 520 Drams. Large consumers pay in Dollars and have their rates adjusted periodically, while small consumers (general public) pays in Drams. Armenia imports 2.2 billion m3 gas from Russia annually, at the price of $165 per 1000m3. 0.7 billion of it is consumed by the general public. Dram was devalued by 6.6% since November. This could prompt the internal gas company to raise the prices, including for the general public. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039886.html http://www.armbanks.am/en/2020/04/07/128024/ https://neftegaz.ru/en/news/energy/406887-armenia-should-pay-for-russian-gas-in-rubles/
Public Council meets drone and robotics industry
The Public Council (linked to PM's office) held a meeting with engineers from the drone, robotics, AI, and nano-tech industries. They discussed ways to help the state to develop the military-industrial complex, drone production, aviation, and to bring their quality to international standards. https://factor.am/327477.html
former PACE MP sentenced to 4 years for taking bribes from Azerbaijan
An Italian court has concluded that Italian PACE representative Luca Volonte, who is the former head of the European People's Party, took €2.4 million in bribes from the Aliyev regime in 2012-2013. The bribe was handed over by Azerbaijan's PACE delegation leader Suleymanov. The scheme was coordinated by an Azeri lobbying firm based in Brussels. In return, the MP gave Azerbaijan favors during PACE and Italian Parliament sessions. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039927.html Tags: #caviar
POWs and searches
The search crews in Artsakh discovered bodies of 10 soldiers and 1 civilian in Jabrayil, Hadrut, and Sgnakh regions. The civilian has already been identified by his relatives. The cause of death is being investigated. Many bodies under the possession of the Armenian side are yet to be identified, while more bodies will likely be found during daily searches for the foreseeable future. Overall, 575 calls have been made by families who are looking for missing relatives, says the Russian humanitarian envoy in Artsakh. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039900.html , https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289293/ Human Rights Ombudsman Tatoyan once again criticized Azerbaijan for intentionally politicizing and delaying the POW swap mission. "It is against international laws to file felony cases and arrest POWs because that's a form of a prohibited punishment. Azerbaijan is also hiding the true number of POWs." The Ombudsman has noted that Armenian residents in Tegh, Vorotan, and several other bordering villages have lost access to 2500 hectares of farming lands due to border changes. (some lands that were internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan were given to Azerbaijan after the war). https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039933.html , https://factor.am/327226.html , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204175
POW discussions: general prosecutor meets Azeri counterpart
Chief prosecutor Arthur Davtyan and his Azeri counterpart were invited to Russia. The three sides held a conversation about the establishment of future contacts in the field of international law and other related topics. Prosecutor Davtyan mentioned the importance of implementing the November 9th statement about the return of POWs, "which will serve as an assurance for implementation of other [trade unblocking] issues." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039953.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039972.html
how much will a new railway network cost?
Azeri economists believe it will cost around $430 million to build a railway network connecting Kars(TR)-Nakhijevan(AZ)-Meghri(AM)-Zangelan(AZ)-Baku(AZ). Overall, if you add Gyumri between Kars and Nakhijevan, it could cost about $434 million. Economists believe Armenia can use this network to connect with Russia via two directions: Gyumri-Nakhijevan-Meghri-Baku (southern trip), or Ijevan-Ghazakh-Baku (northern trip). https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289313/
rumors & rebuttals: traitors are not selling Azeri juice in Armenia
Telegram channel Mediaport circulated rumors that "Azeri Sandora juice is being sold in Armenia". The misinformation was picked up by several outlets and caused confusion among the buyers. Fact-checkers contacted Sandora's local importer who said the producer is a Ukrainian company that sells its product in multiple post-Soviet republics, so they have one unified tag that contains information both in Armenian and Azeri languages. https://fip.am/14469
Pricing for 43 commonly-consumed items was examined by the consumer protection agency in Artsakh. 12 became more expensive, 5 cheaper, 26 remained the same. Onion +25%, cottege cheese +6%, milk +6%, gloves +5%, ..., pear -12%, rice -1%, eggs -1%, butter -1%. Several dairy product prices went up, and since Artsakh has dairy companies that own dominant market share, the consumer agency will launch an investigation to see if there was price-fixing. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039946.html
seismic resistance assessment for old buildings
A significant portion of Armenia's large apartment complex buildings were built half a century ago. They may not be seismically safe, considering Armenia's geolocation. After the 1988 earthquake, some buildings remain populated despite being deemed highly unsafe. Many other buildings have safety irregularities. It is necessary to assess the situation, so the Urban Development Committee has drafted a bill "Methodology for assessing the priority of increasing the seismic resistance of buildings and structures". https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039887.html
IRS will closely monitor gambling industry / RFID chips & servers
IRS press release: gambling facilities and online betting services will be more closely monitored. We worked with international experts to digitize the gambling industry and bring it on par with international standards. All gambling machines and platforms operating in Armenia will be connected to one server which will be connected to a monitoring Center. All betting and winning transactions will be recorded. The Center will also install RFID microchips in casinos to monitor the movement of chips, the chips purchased or won by players, in real-time. The government's Digital Council has approved the bill, which is yet to be discussed and voted in the Parliament. The goal is to be able to monitor the financial flows in this sector and to estimate the actual revenues. It will combat money laundering. (BHK skipping a Parliament session due to "COVID" in 3, 2, 1, ... /joke) https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039915.html
new "public council" will advise Nature Ministry
Nature Minister Romanos met several environmental organizations and environmentalists and discussed the creation of a new Council, which will advise him on nature protection issues, help draft bills and roadmaps, work with other environmental organizations and NGOs. The Council is accepting applications. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039896.html
large quantities of illegally-cut trees were busted
Context: An incident happened last week between parents of drafted soldiers and military officials at a military unit. The parents wanted assurances that their sons would be safe after being deployed on Artsakh borders. The parents wanted to know why Armenian soldiers are still being sent to Artsakh "despite the November 9th statement saying Armenians should withdraw from Artsakh." During the confrontation, an incident happened between a military official and a journalist. The official struck the camera and instructed it to be turned off. Several media outlets released a message condemning the officer for hindering the journalist's work. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039973.html
infrastructure upgrades
Four settlements in Kotayk province (Yeghvard, Nor Gegh, Aragel, Zovuni) have a newly renovated irrigation pipeline as part of a govt subsidy program. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204202
today in history
1932: First Yerevan tramway began operating in Yerevan 1951: The UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide was implemented. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039885.html
get your free colonoscopy today
The National Center for Oncology has purchased the latest generation tools and will perform a free and enjoyable colonoscopy for residents over the age of 45, for the next 6 months. The goal is to detect suspicious growths at an early stage. It's the third most common cancer among adults in the world. It has become more common in Armenia in the past decade. When detected early, it can be fully treated. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039911.html
... we lift some of the restrictions! "Aye, aye, Captain!" "I can't hear you!" "The rule that limits attendance to non-commercial gatherings to no more than 60 people has been removed. All other safety requirements remain in place," said a Healthcare official. "You can enter Armenia via air or land by presenting negative COVID test results that were taken within the past 3 days. If you don't, you will be tested at the airport and will need to self-isolate until the results arrive." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039931.html
Armenia will soon import COVID vaccines
Healthcare Ministry: we are negotiating with multiple entities. The first batch of vaccines will arrive between late-January and mid-February. We are negotiating with producers whose vaccines have passed the necessary tests: Sputnik V, Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca. In the first phase, the vaccines will be given to the most vulnerable 10% of the population. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039921.html
Sputnik V vaccine has already been tested in Armenia
Healthcare Ministry: no complications were reported by the 15 patients, including Minister Torosyan. The often-discussed "skin redness" in the injection area has not been observed, either. The first injection gave a 91.4% efficiency. The second increased it to 94%. Even if the vaccine doesn't fully prevent the infection, it can save the patient's life by making the case mild (is that right??). https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039925.html
the new COVID strain: good news, bad news
Doctor Davit Melik-Nubaryan: the version of COVID that mutated in the UK will eventually reach Armenia. Preliminary data shows that those who have already been infected and gained immunity from the original COVID will be immune to this new strain. It is believed that the immunity will last 6-12 months for the majority. The good news is that the new strain isn't more deadly and doesn't result in heavier cases. The bad news is that it spreads a lot faster. The Healthcare system could be overloaded again. The vaccines against the original strain will likely work against the new one. Pharmaceutical companies may have to modify the vaccines, but it will only take weeks. Closing borders with the UK won't be helpful to prevent it. We may already have the new strain. We need to develop a new strategy from the ground up. Viruses mutate all the time. It's part of the evolution. Sometimes they cause more severe symptoms, sometimes lesser. From the evolutionary and survival standpoint, viruses want to cause less severe symptoms for the host so they can have a chance to spread wider. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039856.html
Armenian scientists will study the COVID strain
CDC chief Bakunts: Armenia will have the ability to study the genetic mutations of the coronavirus. Active work is underway to invest in research resources. Meanwhile, we can submit a virus sample to a WHO laboratory to conduct a study for us. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039962.html
families with newborn children receive mortgage subsidy
450 families have so far taken advantage of a government subsidy program that helps with purchasing apartments. ֏526 million will be paid as part of this 2020-2023 program. It is part of a recent initiative to boost the birthrate. Two other aid programs went into effect in mid-2020. Provincial families received a downpayment subsidy equalling 5% of the total price. Another one subsidizes insurance payments. The same family can apply for all three programs, and there is no age limit for parents. https://factor.am/327385.html
diaspora-government cooperation expands: iGorts
iGorts is a program that recently recruited 48 highly skilled diasporan Armenians to visit Armenia and work at 19 various government agencies. Three more volunteers have arrived today to begin their work: Shila Palyan from Canada, Zaven Ayvazyan from Russia, and Anahit Mikaelyan from Cyprus. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204211
Yerevan to install 32 more elevators in apartment complexes
Arabkir district is the next recipient. Hundreds of units were installed in 2020. They replace the decades-old elevators that have become dangerous and poopy. The new elevators come equipped with running water and flush so you can drain your crap /s. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039954.html
have you been buying stuff right and left lately?
...because trade turnover increased by +34%, and the number of printed receipts by +7%, during this year's New Year's holidays. ֏91 billion was spent between December 29-31, which is ֏23 billion more. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204195
would your majesty be pleased to take a salt bath?
Nerqin Getashen will have a halotherapy "salt bath" center to help alleviate certain conditions. It's the first in Gegharquniq province. There will also be rooms for aromatherapy (oils), ogyxenotherapy (oxygen cocktails), and massage. The owner claims it helps boost immunity and alleviates breathing, allergy, and insomnia issues (take the claim with a bath of salt). https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039974.html
first Yezidi theater to open in Armenia
"шəp' y əBин" or "war and love" will be the first performance in a newly opened Yezidi theater in Ejmiatsin. It's part of a «Եզդիների կողքին» cultural initiative. The crew had planned a major performance about Yezidi national legend but the 44-day war began and some were drafted. The crew ended up performing the "шəp' y əBин" during the war. It's about the importance of Yezidis in Armenia, and their love for the country. The January 17th performance will be dedicated to Yezidis who died fighting. The performers aren't professional actors but they received acting training on-the-fly. "It seems to work because their enthusiasm is great. A very good team has been formed," said the producer. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039941.html
Aram Khachaturian House-Museum will resume "Musical Thursdays"
Netherlands college will donate large quantities of school supplies
Several thousands of desks, chairs, furniture pieces, computers, lockers, etc. are being loaded in containers to be shipped to Armenia. The Hermann Wesselink college is renovating its building with new items so they decided to donate the old stuff to Armenian kids. This will be enough to equip 15 provincial schools. https://factor.am/327135.html
To think of these stars that you see overhead at night, these vast worlds which we can never reach. I would annex the planets if I could; I often think of that. It makes me sad to see them so clear and yet so far. -- Cecil Rhodes, Last Will and Testament
This is the 3rd post in a series on South Africa and Apartheid and so far in the first two neither Apartheid nor South Africa even exists. But we are to the mid climax. In first part we discussed how our groups of players: Afrikaners, British, Xhosa, Zulu, minor tribes, other ethnicities got to what would become South Africa. In the second part we discussed how the Zulus and Xhosa knocked themselves out of the game leaving the British and Afrikaners as the main players standing for who got rule what would become South Africa. We also discussed how the British policy was non-viable. This part is going to discuss how the British changed course and consequently won control. We are also going to get to the genesis of the Western Left's hatred of the Afrikaners and the genesis of Apartheid, We'll end on the creation of the Union of South Africa which while not the Republic of South Africa will allow me to stop talking about "Southern Africa", "territory that will become South Africa".... But unfortunately you will have to sit through this one more post where South Africa doesn't exist yet. Cecil Rhodes was born in 1853 the sickly asthmatic 5th son of a not particularly notable clergyman. He'd remain sickly his entire life dying in 1902 at the age of 48 from the sorts of deterioration of the heart and lung one wouldn't expect to see until a man was at least well into their 90s. In that short span he would: become one of the richest men in the world; found several countries; change the entire economic structure of the territories that would become: South Africa, Botswana, Zambia, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe; found 2 major corporations: the British South Africa Company and De Beers; rethink British imperialism inventing what would become the British Commonwealth; becoming one of the defining figures and great visionaries of the Victorian Age; trigger the 2nd Boer War; demonstrate the strategy changing nature of the machine gun decades before World War 1; be the only genuinely important Prime Minister of the Cape Colony; invent the concept of corporate armies; play a large role in saving the South African wine industry and most importantly be the only individual getting his own post in this series. :) Rhodes was sent to South Africa at the age of 17 so that the British weather didn't kill him. Rather than doing the normal thing and spending the money (amounting to a decade or less of a comfortable middle class salary, but no great fortune) on living with some gambling and girls thrown in he decided to head to the newly discovered diamond mines in Kimberly and started buying up small diamond mining operations leveraging each mine's output and outside financing to buy the next. Later he partnered with leading financing and trading firms so by 1888 had what amounted to monopoly control of diamond industry turning De Beers into the diamond powerhouse it remains to this day though the last pieces wouldn't fall into place until 1890. He by the 1880s De Beers was throwing off enough excess profits that he could pay investors and continue expending De Beers while being able to found the predecessor to the British South Africa Company operating much further into the interior opening up Bechuanaland and Rhodesia as colonies using his own profits to fund the administrative expenses much as the East India Company had done a century earlier. Rhodes believed that British policy wasn't viable because it was petty. A vibrant healthy economy throws off an enormous amount of tax revenue. Petty colonialism, like the kind the British were engaging in would never generate much profit because of its very short term nature. Britain should make money by investing in the local economy, spend some on upkeep, reinvesting most of the profits and just skim a little of a forever growing payout. What Britain had tried to do with the American colonies encouraging economic development was the right approach. The problem was London had been shortsighted and selfish turning the local administrators against them. The independence of the USA wasn't a strategic failure it was the result of poor tactical implementation. The problem the British were facing in Southern Africa was similar and since the policies had been similar the results would be as well. The Afrikaners had no reason to be loyal to a Britain which had spent almost a century making very clear that it had no interest in their welfare or society beyond some ports which were frankly not nearly so important since Suez had opened. Rhodes changed policy to have Britain stop acting like a colonizing power and start acting like the domestic government of South Africa as much as possible .Outlining his changes to colonial governing policy:
Colonial financing -- utilize profits from business ventures fund army. Rhodes' companies were good examples of this the British charter and the backing of British troops allowed him to make excess profits which allowed him to incur expenses which the previous skinflint administration could never have tolerated. For example British colonial bonds generated an average return of 4.7%. Investments in independent American bonds generated an average return of only 2.9%. The difference was not being taken into account when the Colonial Office calculated their return on investment which to Rhodes' mind was simply lousy accounting.
Long term investment -- In general rewire the metrics used at the London Colonial Office to focus on long term investment not short term profits.
Demographics -- The British were the world's first people. Physically populate as much of the world as possible. Assimilate other people's into the British way of life. In South Africa in particular he intended to win the hearts and minds of the Boer.
Stability -- The previous administration had focused on stability because instability created upheavals that increased administrative costs. For too long British colonial policy was to tolerate and coexist with local culture. To create a profitable economy agricultural efficiencies are going to need to be introduced. That means 90% of the natives are going to freed up to work in a manufacturing and processing workforce. It also means the agricultural tribal traditional culture is going to be completely destroyed. Instability not stability should be policy. Seek to replace local culture with British culture to enhance the potential for economic growth.
Glory to British not England -- English colonies exist for glory of England. British colonies self exist. England's glory is that is the Birthplace of the 1st people not how much of the world remains completely non-British while in some vague unimportant sense recognizing Victoria as their Queen.
Representation -- As long as colonial governments respond to a English democracy they will be unrepresentative of their people. Create a democratic institution which provides representation for all British people in a British Parliament. There should be an English parliament for England. Invite the United States to join this new institution. "Inauguration of a system of Colonial representation in the Imperial Parliament which may tend to weld together the disjointed members of the Empire and, finally, the foundation of so great a Power as to render wars impossible, and promote the best interests of humanity" (NB: this is essentially the British Commonwealth, though of course the USA was not invited)
Devastating defeat of enemies -- Colonial policy was designed to solve conflict cheaply. Small military victories do not undermine the hostile's economy nor their society and thus don't accomplish much. They simply delay and prolonging the problem created by the enemy allowing the enemy to choose points in time to achieve advantage. Avoid costly wars certainly but when war is needed seek to inflict devastating defeat so the subject people realize their inferiority. This realization facilities undermining their institutions and thus during the peace their way of life easily becomes more British. Further a willingness to war like this makes challenging Britain very costly and risky for potential enemies and thus wars will be far less frequent. The financial people are correct that the aggregate cost of inflicting devastating defeats infrequently is higher than more frequent small wars but the benefits are far greater. War carried out towards devastating defeat becomes a form of investment not a pure non-productive expense.
Scope -- The British were far to unambitious in their aims. The goal of British colonialism should be "all lands where the means of livelihood are attainable by energy, labour and enterprise". The scope was, "the occupation by British settlers of the entire Continent of Africa, the Holy Land, the Valley of the Euphrates, the Islands of Cyprus and Candia, the whole of South America, the Islands of the Pacific not heretofore possessed by Great Britain, the whole of the Malay Archipelago, the seaboard of China and Japan, the ultimate recovery of the United States of America as an integral part of the British Empire"
map of Cecil Rhodes' proposed British Empire You'll notice that all of Africa was in the map. Rhodes was of the opinion that Africa was incredibly rich in minerals and peoples. But it wasn't exploitable for profit because of a lack of transportation infrastructure. Rhodes was pushing to start fixing this by creating a full African north-south railway connecting "Cairo to the Cape". Rhodes' BSAC conquests were designed to drive north while he used his political influence to push the Egyptian conquest further south into Anglo-Egyptian Sudan and then a business similar to BSAC run by Sir William Mackinnon to push into Uganda. For the northward push (primarily in what today is Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana) Rhodes was directly implementing his policy using a private army funded from the British South Africa Company. The Ndebele and Shona (Zulu tribes) were handled easily by the devastating defeat principle. Rhodes' forces demonstrated how effectively Maxims (a primitive form of machine gun) and barbed wire worked against simple rifles, spears and long shields achieving kill ratios never before seen in the history of warfare. As an aside these battles against the Zulus would also be used by those military theorists and historians who correctly anticipated in the later 1890s through 1910s how devastating a war between the great powers would be using these weapons against each other. Rhodes through BSAC had managed to push north of Lake Mweru and to the Northern tip of Lake Nyasa. Which almost connected with Sudan were it not for German East Africa (Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania) in the middle. In theory an alternative route through the Belgian Congo would also work but the gold mines in Tanzania kept Rhodes focused on taking German East Africa. Further Rhodes met his match in ruthlessness when it came to the Belgians. When Rhodes' negotiating agent sought a development contract for mineral-rich Katanga (in Congo) the native ruler Msiri refused. King Leopold II of Belgium obtained the same concession by having his agent signing it to Belgium himself over Msiri's dead body in the name of the "Congo Free State". At the same time Rhodes worked with the Colonial office and in 1890 British issued the "1890 British Ultimatum" to Portugal. This ultimatum by the British government forced the retreat of Portuguese military forces from areas which had been claimed by Portugal on the basis of historical discovery and recent exploration, but which the United Kingdom claimed on the basis of effective occupation. Portugal had attempted to claim a large area of land between its colonies of Mozambique and Angola including most of present-day Zimbabwe and Zambia and a large part of Malawi, which had been included in Portugal's "Rose-coloured Map". This ultimatum violated the Anglo-Portuguese Treaty of 1373 which to that point had been the longest standing peace treaty in history. Who owned what by the early 1900s Take a look at the map above and imagine the British controlling the north-south line connecting to a British/Portuguese line running east-west in the south and a joint French/British/Italian line running east-west in the north. From there local government and companies could construct smaller feeder lines creating a modern rail system. Hopefully and you start to see how Rhodes intended to start developing the transpiration infrastructure needed to create a strong African economy. All this was going to be for naught though if Southern Africa ended up as a Boer state hostile to British interests on the model ZAR (Zuid-Afrikaansche Republiek, Transvaal Republic). So Rhodes decided to run for Prime Minister of the Cape Colony and solve the problems of British strategy explicated in part 2. The primary problem the Boer had with British government is their divide and conquer approach. The British tilted to whomever was losing (a standard British policy they would also follow in Palestine) which for decades meant treating the Boer and native Africans as both being subject peoples while favoring the native Africans against the Boer. In Rhodes mind you could not expect to get loyalty from people you were obvious disfavoring. The British were the ones turning the Boer into enemies. So in 1892 Rhodes instituted the Franchise and Ballot Act. This was seen as a compromise between factions in the Colonial Office and the traditions in the Cape Colony for a broad democracy (anyone with £25 in property could vote) and Orange and ZAR's (Zuid-Afrikaansche Republiek, Transvaal Republic) more exclusive democracy. Rhodes raised the amount of property to £75, an amount specifically chosen to disempower many of the native Africans while allowing many Boers to vote. With a Boer and British based democracy locked in the Cape Colony's democratic powers could be strengthened, creating more self rule and making the involvement of the London Colonial Office less obvious. This concept of using a not explicitly racial criteria while instituting laws with racist intent is very modern. Various Liberals in the London Colonial Office especially missionaries disagreed strongly with Rhode's policies. They had been the ones advocating for the enlightened colonialism that was British policy. Missionaries in particular saw their role as: combating godlessness, superstition and backwardness. In particular encourage better use of land; encourage paycheck work; become trusted advisor to tribal leaders. The slogan "Bring the 3Cs into Africa" referred to Commerce, Christianity and Civilization. To their mind Rhodes' vision of British Imperialism was straight up military tyranny. If followed he would make England no different than a modern day Genghis Khan, creating a empire loathed by a vast expanse of subject peoples who would unite against it from all directions. Instead interfering minimally and being seen as an ally while slowly educated the elite in British custom and religion would cause a gradual consensual change that would build British alliances that would last centuries. Plus such an approach would fulfill the Lord's Great Commission (term for Jesus' command to convert the entire world to Christianity) in a way that honored God rather than shamed him. One need only look at how the Spanish, Portuguese and Balkans had thrown off Islam after centuries to see how ineffective military tyranny was at long term conversions that didn't require force. So in their mind: No the London Office should stand by its traditional values of: monopoly companies and plantations run in (unequal) partnership with indigenous elite. free trade, free (and indeed forced) migration, infrastructural investment, balanced budgets, sound money, the rule of law and incorrupt administration. As far as their Boer, in their mind the Boer were the primary impediment to enlighten British rule in South Africa, being Christians they were obligated to agree with the missionaries on the vision of the White Man's Burden and Enlightened Empire. Rather than making concession to the Boer they needed to be crushed to demonstrate the moral difference between the Boer and the British. With Rhodes' change in policy tilting towards rather than away from the Boer the Western Left came to truly hate the Boer in 1890s. Since the point of this series is the analogy I'll add that I wrote two posts about more or less the same groups of Liberal Christians turning against Israel again having to do with Israeli/Jews discrediting Liberal Western values and thus interfering with the Great Commission: WCC churches and Quakers. Rhodes in debates before and at the time considered this Liberal Empire stuff to be simply aspirational. Without economic interference there wasn't enough money to fund anything like what the Liberals proposed. He'd point to facts like that after a century of such rules in India they had increased the secondary schooling 7x to a whopping 2% while England with not nearly as many well funded missionary organizations was over 16%. Rhodes hoped to unify all of Southern Africa around this compromise approach to the franchise. ZAR however rejected this compromise. By the mid 1990s approximately 1/3rd of their white population were British (Anglicans). ZAR had every intent of maintaining religious based voting criteria (i.e. citizenship in ZAR was only open to people who were members of several Dutch Reformed Churches, see part 2). Obviously for Rhodes a situation where British people were the disempowered minority was intolerable. Additionally the ZAR were maintaining an anti-Cape Colony / anti-British / anti-Rhodes trade policy. It was becoming increasingly clear there would need to be regime change. So in 1895 Rhodes organized an attempted coup d'état now called the "Jameson Raid" (yes the same Jameson who went on to be Prime Minister 1904-8 of the Cape Colony after the 2nd Boer War). The Afrikaners were more astute than natives had been caught wind of the early organization and waited until the forces were committed trapping hundreds of Rhode's people creating a great embarrassment. Its at this point that the Boer made by far the greatest mistake of their history as a people. The 4 years between 1895-9 were when they made the choices that led to their ruin. The British were really embarrassed. A colonial governor who had a crown chartered corporation had been caught red handed engaging in a serious act of war against another sovereign state with no approval from Parliament. The Colonial Office admitted as much and forced Rhodes out of office in 1896. The Afrikaners had real negotiating leverage to work out a deal. It obviously would be extremely important that the next leader of the Cape be friendly. But they didn't decide to negotiate. Instead they started flirting with the Germans, while not actually signing a formal alliance with Germany that at least had the potential to provide them real protection. The flirtation however, turned a nasty incident into a serious threat to all British interests in Southern Africa forcing a British response. In Britain an alliance of Jingoists (populist military hawks) angry about the humiliation of 1st Boer War, Conservative Imperialists who wanted to end Boer independence especially in the ZAR (the 3 core values for Conservatives at the time were: Union with Ireland, the Empire and the superiority of the British race), Liberal Imperialists who supported Rhodes' vision and Missionaries who hated the Boer formed pushing for a war. Seeing this alliance form against them the Afrikaners did nothing to avert the danger. Rather they made a mistake many 2nd tier powers do when it comes to 1st tier powers. The Afrikaners confused the light force and weak will the 1st tier power is willing to spend on them with the amount of force the 1st tier power is capable of employing if it so chooses. Having beaten the British handily in the 1st Boer War when they were fighting the C-team (as I called in part 2) the Afrikaners grossly underestimated what they would face against a British army that had a political mandate for victory, what Britain's A-team would look like. Preparing for something slightly worse than the 1st Boer War the Boer began a serious arms buying program in 1897. ZAR also got more belligerent in their rhetoric which led to a formal alliance with the Orange State and Boer guerilla groups that could support the war effort in the Cape. The Boer had about 63k troops including some foreign troops. . The British were determined not to lose the 2nd Boer War. This was going to be the British-A team. By the second phase of the war between British soldiers, soldiers from other colonies and local Africans providing auxiliary Boer were facing a 500-600k man army. Nor was the command third or even second rate as it had been in the 1st Boer War. For example, the top military command would be Herbert Kitchener who was fresh from the victorious Anglo-Egyptian invasion of Sudan. Kitchener after the 2nd Boer War would go on to be the Commander-in-Chief for the armies in India and a decade after that the UK's Secretary of State for War during World War 1. He's this guy: Kitchener famous 1914 recruiting poster The cost to maintain that army would be £60m / year far more than Britain could ever pull out of Southern Africa (GDP and inflation adjusted the Boer War would cost the UK about $250b). The first phase of the war was a Boer offensive while the British were still deploying troops in October–December 1899. Once the British were done they conquered all pockets of resistance in the Cape and Orange as well as essentially the entire ZAR territory January to September 1900. The Afrikaners decided to fight when surrender was the better option. Leading to a guerrilla war between September 1900 and May 1902. The British simply could not afford to keep an army of that size in the field for years dealing with guerilla tactics until the Boer admitted they were beat. Facing time pressure the British felt they had no choice but to come down hard. The British cut the guerilla war short by instituting a scorched earth policy against areas giving support to guerillas in the ZAR (most of the ZAR). ZAR men were mostly in the militias. Scorched earth destroyed the food supply in the ZAR so the British threw the women and children in concentration camps. The army hadn't prepped for needing to support massive numbers of civilians so malnutrition and disease were rampant in the concentration camps. This disease and malnutrition resulting in a camp death rate of approximately 30% annually. A policy amounting to genocide. Pro Boer forces in the UK generated widespread opposition to the camps so the military response was to not confine woman and children and instead leave civilians on the now barren earth to die of starvation and exposure. Actual POWs were deported to Bermuda and India preventing the Boer from standing any chance of liberating them. African tribes that had lost territory to the Boer began moving in. While both sides had agreed not to arm natives or recruit tribes. But the British weren't going to fight for the Boer if tribes decided to take advantage of their defeat. The Boer were quickly losing everything they were fighting for: freedom, their lands, their family, the self dependence and surrendered rather than have their population geocoded to oblivion, being left with no economy and whatever lands they managed to hold being assaulted on all sides by natives who would take it from them. The Boer society that emerged from the surrender did not have separatist attitude. Destitute Boers now willing to work in the minds and alongside black Africans swelled the ranks of the unskilled urban poor competing with the "uitlanders" in the mines. The new economy was unambiguously focused on gold causing mine production to swell enriching the British interests. The Afrikaners were both physically and psychologically crushed, and wouldn't be causing any more problems for decades. In the UK the war came to be seen as excessive especially as the financial cost of the war sunk in. The Conservatives' suffered a spectacular defeat in 1906 driving the Conservative Prime Minister at the time (12 July 1902 – 4 December 1905) Arthur Balfour from office. He comes up rather regularly on this sub in his later role as Foreign Minister. As the Boer are no longer resisting the British Empire the shift towards more pro-Boer policies from England continues. In 1909 the British Parliament dissolves the British colonies of: Cape of Good Hope, Natal, Orange River Colony, and Transvaal and combines them into a Federal Union of South Africa. This makes South Africa into a Dominion (essentially Australia's status at the time). Jan Smuts (an Afrikaner) resurrects Rhodes' idea of a Common Wealth and the British embrace it. And so we conclude part 3 our story of how the British eventually won and South Africa came to exist. How the Western Left started to hate the Boer, a hatred they would resurrect later. And how the first steps towards apartheid were taken. Whew that was longer than I intended!
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