Update 2/4 - someone went ahead and spelled out the mechanics of the squeeze quite well and I would like to give their post attention https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lc8vgo/slv_is_not_going_to_get_squeezedslv_is_the_trojan/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Update 2/2 - I am able to comment again. I messaged several mods on Reddit and the mod account on Twitter. None of them responded but it appears I am able to comment again so I assume one of them lifted my ban
Update 2/1 - I have been banned from posting on WSB. I guess they aren’t yet deleting my post here given the media attention. If this was a rogue mod I’d appreciate being restored the ability to post on WSB. I’m open to talking to any mods
Update 1/31 - there have been tons of 'what to buy' questions so I added a clarity post, hope it helps. It's also getting downvoted to hell because its not about GME so that's discouraging. The speed at which the downvotes flew in makes me think someone made bots to crush new posts related to SLV (or maybe anything not GME). It makes no sense for this post to have 93% upvotes and my new one to have 28%.
I have not sold my GME to buy SLV. I had a small pre-existing position in leaps I bought months ago.
Created an official Twitter handle not sure if I’ll use it, but didn’t want anyone to impersonate me on there
Here is the longer DD for the short squeeze case for SLV, a follow-up from my shorter post a few hours ago. Note that I talk in first person as this is something I’m going to do. Everyone is free to do as they individually please and copy my trade if they’d like to. I think it’s absurd that forces at be think this forum is manipulating by posting publicly but that’s where we are at right now.
First things first, I'm not doing this until the GME rise is done. I am long GME but am going long SLV immediately after.
Update 1/29: due to the manipulation and collusion of citadel, hedge funds, and brokers to change the rules and rig the game in their favor. Who likely knew ahead of time and bought puts right before and calls at the bottom, GME is too important to abandon still. SLV is still my next play but GME needs to go to $1000 and these people need to go to jail.
If you just want to know what to buy skip to the end
I present 2 investment DDs in this post, the short squeeze and the fundamentals. If you want to see what to buy
The short squeeze:
Buy SLV shares and SLV call options to force physical delivery of silver to the SLV vaults. Also buy physical silver bullion. The best possible thing would be to take physical delivery in the futures market if you have access to do so.
The silver futures market has oscillated between having roughly 100-1 and 500-1 ratio of paper traded silver to physical silver, but lets call it 250-1 for now. This means that for every 250 ounces in open interest in the futures market, only 1 actually gets delivered. Most traders would rather settle with cash rather than take delivery of thousands of ounces of silver and have to figure out to store and transport it in the future.
The people naked shorting silver via the futures markets are a couple of large banks and making them pay dearly for their over leveraged naked shorts would be incredible. It's not Melvin capital on the other side of this trade, its JP Morgan. Time to get some payback for the bailouts and manipulation they've done for decades (look up silver manipulation fines that JPM has paid over the years).
The way the squeeze could occur is by forcing a much higher percentage of the futures contracts to actually deliver physical silver. There is very little silver in the COMEX vaults or available to actually be use to deliver, and if they have to start buying en masse on the open market they will drive the price massively higher. There is no way to magically create more physical silver in the world that is ready to be delivered. With a stock you can eventually just issue more shares if the price rises too much, but this simply isn't the case here. The futures market is kind of the wild west of the financial world. Real commodities are being traded, and if you are short, you literally have to deliver thousands of ounces of silver per contract if the holder on the other side demands it. If you remember oil going negative back in May, that was possible because futures are allowed to trade to their true value. They aren't halted and that's what will make this so fun when the true squeeze happens.
Edit for more detail: let’s say there’s one futures seller who gets unlucky and gets the buyer who actually wants to take delivery. He doesn’t have the silver and realizes it’s all of a sudden damn difficult to find some physical silver. He throws up his hands and just goes long a matching number of futures contracts and will demand actual delivery on those. Problem solved because he has now matched the demanding buyer with a new seller. The issue is that the new seller has the same issue and does the exact same thing. This is how the cascade effect of a meltup occurs. All the naked shorts trying to offload their position to someone who actually has some silver. My goal is to ensure that I have the silver and won’t sell to them until silver is at a far higher price due to the desperation.
The silver market is much larger than GME in terms of notional value, but there is very little physical silver actually readily available (think about the difference between total shares and the shares in the active float for a stock), and the paper silver trading hands in the futures market is hundreds of times larger than what is available. Thus when they are forced to actually deliver physical silver it will create a massive short squeeze where an absurd amount of silver will be sought after (to fulfill their contractually obligated delivery) with very little available to actually buy. They are naked shorting silver and will have to cover all at once and the float as a percentage of the total silver stock globally is truly miniscule.
The fundamentals:
The current gold to silver ratio is 73-1. Meaning the price of gold per ounce is 73 times the price of silver. Naturally occurring silver is only 18.75 times as common as gold, so this ratio of 73-1 is quite high. Until the early 20th century, silver prices were pegged at a 15-1 ratio to gold in the US because this ratio was relatively known even then. In terms of current production, the ratio is even lower at 8-1. Meaning the world is only producing 8 ounces of silver for each newly produced ounce of gold.
Global industry has been able to get away with producing so little new silver for so long because governments have dumped silver on the market for 80 years, but now their silver vaults are empty. At the end of WW2 government vaults globally contained 10 billion ounces of silver, but as we moved to fiat currency and away from precious metal backed currencies, the amount held by governments has decreased to only 0.24 billion ounces as they dumped their supply into the market. But this dumping is done now as their remaining supply is basically nil.
This 0.24 billion ounces represents only 8% of the total supply of only 3 billion ounces stored as investment globally. This means that 92% of that gold is held privately by institutions and by millions of boomer gold and silver bugs who have been sitting on meager gains for decades. These boomers aren't going to sell no matter what because they see their silver cache as part of their doomsday prepper supplies. It's locked away in bunkers they built 500 miles from their house. Also, with silver at $23 an ounce currently, this means all of the worlds investment grade silver only has a total market cap of $70 billion. For comparison the investment grade gold in the world is worth roughly $6 trillion. This is because most of the silver produced each year actually gets used, as I have mentioned. $70 billion sounds like a lot, but we don’t have to buy all that much for the price to go up a lot.
**If the squeeze happens, it would be like 40 years worth of their gains in 4 months **
The reason that only 8 ounces of silver are produced for every 1 ounce of gold in today's world is because there aren't really any good naturally occurring silver deposits left in the world. Silver is more common than gold in the earth's crust, but it is spread very thin. Thus nearly every ounce of silver produces is actually a byproduct of mining for other metals such as gold or copper. This means that even as the silver price skyrockets, it wont be easy to increase the supply of silver being produced. Even if new mines were to be constructed, it could take years to come online.
Finally, most of this newly created silver supply each year is used for productive purposes rather than kept for investment. It is used in electronics, solar panels, and jewelry for the most part. This demand wont go away if the silver price rises, so the short sellers will be trying to get their hands on a very small slice of newly minted silver. The solar market is also growing quickly and political pressure to increase solar and electric vehicles could provide more industrial demand.
The other part of the story is the faster moving piece and that is the inflation and currency debasement fear portion. The government and the fed are printing money like crazy debasing the value of the dollar, so investors look for real assets like precious metals to hide out in, driving demand for silver. The $1.9 trillion stimulus passing in a month or two could be a good catalyst. All this money combined with the reopening of the economy could cause some solid inflation to occur, and once inflation starts it often feeds on itself.
​
What to buy:
Edit 2/24: I now advocate buying PSLV for shares, physical metal if the premiums come back down, and if you want options then SLV is still ok for that.
I will be putting 50% directly into SLV shares, and 50% into the $35 strike SLV calls expiring 4/16. This way the SLV purchase creates a groundswell into silver immediately that then rockets through a gamma squeeze as SLV approaches $35. Price target of $75 for SLV by end of April if the short squeeze happens.
Edit: for the part of your purchases going into shares, some people recommend PSLV because they think SLV might start lying about having the silver in their vault. Or that the custodian will be double counting, ie claiming that the same silver belongs to multiple people (banking on the fact that people wont all try to get their silver at once). So if you buy SLV shares and calls, that's great. But I think it could be prudent for us to buy options in SLV (no options on PSLV) and shares in PSLV. It all depends on how paranoid you want to be. There is a lot of paranoia in the precious metals world.
Alternate options:
- buying physical silver; this also works but you pay a premium to buy and sell so its less efficient and you take fewer silver ounces off of the market because of the premium you pay
- going long futures for February or March; if you are a rich bastard and can actually take physical delivery of 1000s of ounces of silver by all means do so. But if you simply settle for cash you are actually part of the problem. We need actual physical delivery, which is what SLV demands and is why SLV is the way to go unless you are going to take delivery
- miners; I don’t recommend buying miners as part of this trade. Miners will absolutely go up if SLV goes up, but buying them doesn't create the squeeze in the actual silver market. Furthermore, most silver miners only derive 30-50% of their revenue from silver anyways, so eventually SLV will outperform them as it gets high enough (and each marginal SLV dollar only increases miner profits by a smaller and smaller percentage)
Details on SLV physical settlement:
When SLV issues shares, the custodian is forced to true up their vaults with the proportional amount of silver daily. From the SLV prospectus:
"An investment in Shares is: Backed by silver held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. The Shares are backed by the assets of the Trust. The Trustee’s arrangements with the Custodian contemplate that at the end of each business day there can be in the Trust account maintained by the Custodian no more than 1,100 ounces of silver in an unallocated form. The bulk of the Trust’s silver holdings is represented by physical silver, identified on the Custodian’s or, if applicable, sub-custodian's, books in allocated and unallocated accounts on behalf of the Trust and is held by the Custodian in London, New York and other locations that may be authorized in the future."
Join me brothers. Lets take silver to the moon and take on the biggest and baddest manipulators in the world. Please post rocket emojis in the comments as desired.
Disclaimer: do your own research, make your own decisions, everything here is a guess and hypothetical and nothing is guaranteed, not a financial advisor, I have ADHD and maybe other things too.
Bear case: silver does tend to sell off if the broader market plunges so it’s not immune to broad market sell off. It’s also the most manipulated market in the world so we are facing some tough competition on the short side

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low (average ~$67--I have to admit, the drop today was too tasty so my cost basis went up from yesterday)/share with my later buys averaged in), and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours. In this post I will go a little further and speculate more than I'd normally do in a post due to the questions I've been getting, so fair warning, some of it might be very wrong. I suspect we'll learn some of the truth years from now when some investigative journalist writes a book about it.
Thank you everyone for the comments and questions on the first and second post on this topic.
Today was a study in the power of fear, courage, and the levers you can pull when you wield billions of dollars...
Woops, excuse me. I'm sorry hedge fund guys... I meant trillions of dollars--I just briefly forget you control not just your own but a lot of other peoples' money too for a moment there.
Also, for people still trading this on market-based rationale (as I am), it was a good day to measure the conviction behind your thesis. I like to think I have conviction, but in case you are somehow not yet familiar with the legend of DFV, you need to see these posts (fair warning, nsfw, and some may be offended/triggered by the crude language). The last two posts might be impressive, but you should follow it in chronological order and pay attention to the evolution of sentiment in the comments to experience true enlightenment.
Anyway, I apologize, but this post will be very long--there's just a lot to unpack.

Pre-Market

Disclaimer: given yesterday's pre-market action I didn't even pay attention to the screen until near retail pre-market. I'm less confident in my ability to read what's going on in a historical chart vs the feel I get watching live, but I'll try.
Early in the pre-market it looks to me like some momentum traders are taking profit, discounting the probability that the short-side will give them a deep discount later, which you can reasonably assume given the strategy they ran yesterday. If they're right they can sell some small volume into the pre-market top, wait for the hedge funds try to run the price back down, and then lever up the gains even higher buying the dip. Buy-side here look to me like people FOMOing and YOLOing in at any price to grab their slice of gainz, or what looks to be market history in the making. No way are short-side hedge funds trying to cover anything at these prices.
Mark Cuban--well said! Free markets baby!
Mohamed El-Erian is money in the bank as always. "upgrade in quality" on the pandemic drop was the best, clearest actionable call while most were at peak panic, and boy did it print. Your identifying the bubble as the excessive short (vs blaming retail activity) is money yet again. Also, The PAIN TRADE (sorry, later interview segment I only have on DVR, couldn't find on youtube--maybe someone else can)!
The short attack starts, but I'm hoping no one was panicking this time--we've seen it before. Looks like the momentum guys are minting money buying the double dip into market open.
CNBC, please get a good market technician to explain the market action. Buy-side dominance, sell-side share availability evaporating into nothing (look at day-by-day volume last few days), this thing is now at runaway supercritical mass. There is no changing the trajectory unless you can change the very fabric of the market and the rules behind it (woops, I guess I should have knocked on wood there).
If you know the mechanics, what's happening in the market with GME is not mysterious AT ALL. I feel like you guys are trying to scare retail out early "for their own good" (with all sincerity, to your credit) rather than explain what's happening. Possibly you also fear that explaining it would equate to enabling/encouraging people to keep trying to do it inappropriately (possibly fair point, but at least come out and say that if that's the case). Outside the market, however...wow.

You Thought Yesterday Was Fear? THIS is Fear!

Ok short-side people, my hat is off to you. Just when I thought shouting fire in a locked theater was fear mongering poetry in motion, you went and took it to 11. What's even better? Yelling fire in a theater with only one exit. That way people can cause the financial equivalent of stampede casualties. Absolutely brilliant.
Robin Hood disables buying of GME, AMC, and a few of the other WSB favorites. Other brokerages do the same. Even for people on 0% margin. Man, and here I thought I had seen it all yesterday.
Side note: I will give a shout out to TD Ameritrade. You guys got erroneously lumped together with RH during an early CNBC segment, but you telegraphed the volatility risk management changes and gradually ramped up margin requirements over the past week. No one on your platform should have been surprised if they were paying attention. And you didn't stop anyone from trading their own money at any point in time. My account balance thanks you. I heard others may have had problems, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt given the DDOS attacks that were flyiing around
Robin Hood. Seriously WTF. I'm sure it was TOTALLY coincidence that your big announcements happen almost precisely when what has to be one of the best and most aggressive short ladder attacks of all time starts painting the tape, what looked like a DDOS attack on Reddit's CDN infrastructure (pretty certain it was the CDN because other stuff got taken out at the same time too), and a flood of bots hit social media (ok, short-side, this last one is getting old).
Taking out a large-scale cloud CDN is real big boy stuff though, so I wouldn't entirely rule out nation state type action--those guys are good at sniffing out opportunities to foment social unrest.
Anyway, at this point, as the market dives, I have to admit I was worried for a moment. Not that somehow the short-side would win (hah! the long-side whales in the pond know what's up), but that a lot of retail would get hurt in the action. That concern subsided quite a bit on the third halt on that slide. But first...
A side lesson on market orders
Someone printed bonus bank big time (and someone lost--I feel your pain, whoever you are).
During the face-ripping volatility my play money account briefly ascended to rarified heights of 7 figures. It took me a second to realize it, then another second to process it. Then, as soon as it clicked, that one, glorious moment in time was gone.
What happened?
During the insane chop of the short ladder attack, someone decided to sweep the 29 Jan 21 115 Call contracts, but they couldn't get a grip on the price, which was going coast to coast as IV blew up and the price was being slammed around. So whoever was trying to buy said "F it, MARKET ORDER" (i.e. buy up to $X,XXX,XXX worth of contracts at any price). This is referred to as a sweep if funded to buy all/most of the contracts on offer (HFT shops snipe every contract at each specific price with a shotgun of limit orders, which is far safer, but something only near-market compute resources can do really well). For retail, or old-tech pros, if you want all the contracts quickly, you drop a market order loaded with big bucks and see what you get... BUT, some clever shark had contracts available for the reasonable sum of... $4,400, or something around that. I was too stunned to grab a screencap. The buy market order swept the book clean and ran right into that glorious, nigh-obscene backstop limit. So someone got nearly $440,000 PER CONTRACT that was, at the time theoretically priced at around $15,000. $425,000 loss... PER CONTRACT. Maybe I'm not giving the buyer enough credit.. you can get sniped like that even if you try to do a safety check of the order book first, but, especially in low liquidity environments, if a HFT can peak into your order flow (or maybe just observes a high volume of sweeps occurring), they can end up front running your sweep, pick off the reasonable contracts, and slam a ridiculous limit sell order into place before your order makes it to the exchange. Either way, I hope that sweep wasn't loaded for bear into the millions. If so... OUCH. Someone got cleaned out.
So, the lesson here folks... in a super high volatility, low-liquidity market, a market order will just run up the ladder into the first sell order it can find, and some very brutal people will put limit sells like that out there just in case they hit the jackpot. And someone did. If you're on the winning side, great. It can basically bankrupt you if you're on the losing side. My recommendation: Just don't try it. I wouldn't be surprised if really shady shenanigans were involved in this, but no way to know (normally that's crazy-type talk, but after today....peeking at order flow and sniping sweeps is one of the fastest, most financially devastating ways to bleed big long-side players, just sayin').
edit *so while I was too busy trying not to spit out my coffee to grab a screenshot, piddlesthethug was faster on the draw and captured this: https://imgur.com/gallery/RI1WOuu
Ok, so I guess my in-the-moment mental math was off by about 10%. Man, that hurts just thinking about the guy who lost on that trade.*
Back to the market action..

A Ray of Light Through the Darkness

So I was worried watching the crazy downward movement for two different reasons.
On the one hand, I was worried the momentum pros would get the best discounts on the dip (I'll admit, I FOMO'd in too early, unnecessarily raising my cost basis).
On the other hand, I was worried for the retail people on Robin Hood who might be bailing out into incredibly steep losses because they had only two options: Watch the slide, or bail. All while dealing with what looked to me like a broad-based cloud CDN outage as they tried to get info from WSB HQ, and wondering if the insta-flood of bot messages were actually real people this time, and that everyone else was bailing on them to leave them holding the bag.
But I saw the retail flag flying high on the 3rd market halt (IIRC), and I knew most would be ok. What did I see, you ask? Why, the glorious $211.00 / $5,000 bid/ask spread. WSB Reddit is down? Those crazy mofos give you the finger right on the ticker tape. I've been asked many times in the last few hours about why I was so sure shorts weren't covering on the down move. THIS is how I knew. For sure. It's in the market data itself.
edit So, there's feedback in the comments that this is likely more of a technical glitch. Man, at least it was hilarious in the moment. But also now I know maybe not to trust price updates when the spread between orders being posted is so wide. Maybe a technical limitation of TOS
I'll admit, I tried to one-up those bros with a 4206.90 limit sell order, but it never made it through. I'm impressed that the HFT guys at the hedge fund must have realized really quickly what a morale booster that kind of thing would have been, and kept a lower backstop ask in place almost continuously from then on I'm sure others tried the same thing. Occasionally $1,000 and other high-dollar asks would peak through from time to time from then on, which told me the long-side HFTs were probably successfully sniping the backstops regularly.
So, translating for those of you who found that confusing. First, such a high ask is basically a FU to the short-side (who, as you remember, need to eventually buy shares to cover their short positions). More importantly, as an indicator of retail sentiment, it meant that NO ONE ELSE WAS TRYING TO SELL AT ANY PRICE LOWER THAN $5,000. Absolutely no one was bailing out.
I laughed for a minute, then started getting a little worried. Holy cow.. NO retail selling into the fear? How are they resisting that kind of price move??
The answer, as we all know now... they weren't afraid... they weren't even worried. They were F*CKING PISSED.
Meanwhile the momentum guys and long-side HFTs keep gobbling up the generously donated shares that the short-side are plowing into their ladder attack. Lots of HFT duels going on as long-side HFTs try to intercept shares meant to travel between short-side HFT accounts for their ladder. You can tell when you see prices like $227.0001 constantly flying across the tape. Retail can't even attempt to enter an order like that--those are for the big boys with privileged low-latency access.
The fact that you can even see that on the tape with human eyes is really bad for the short-side people.
Why, you ask? Because it means liquidity is drying up, and fast.

The Liquidity Tide is Flowing Out Quickly. Who's Naked (short)?

Market technicals time. I still wish this sub would allow pictures so I could throw up a chart, but I guess a table will do fine.
​

Date	Volume	Price at US Market Close
Friday, 1/22/21	197,157,196	$65.01
Monday, 1/25/21	177,874,00	$76.79
Tuesday, 1/26/21	178,587,974	$147.98
Wednesday, 1/27/21	93,396,666	$347.51
Thursday, 1/28/21	58,815,805	$193.60

What do I see? I see the shares available to trade dropping so fast that all the near-exchange compute power in the world won't let the short-side HFTs maintain order flow volume for their attacks. Many retail people asking me questions thought today was the heaviest trading. Nope--it was just the craziest.
What about the price dropping on Thursday? Is that a sign that the short-side pulled a miracle out and pushed price down against a parabolic move on even less volume than Wednesday? Is the long side running out of capital?
Nope. It means the short-side hedge funds are just about finished.
But wait, I thought the price needed to be higher for them to be taken out? How is it that price being lower is bad for them? Won't that allow them to cover at a lower price?
No, the volume is so low that they can't cover any meaningful fraction of their position without spiking the price parabolic almost instantly. Just not enough shares on offer at reasonable prices (especially when WSB keeps flashing you 6942.00s).
It's true, a higher price hurts, but the interest charge for one more day is just noise at this point. The only tick that will REALLY count is the last tick of trading on Friday.
In the meantime, the price drop (and watching the sparring in real time) tells me that the long-side whales and their HFT quants are so certain of the squeeze that they're no longer worried AT ALL about whether it will happen, and they aren't even worried at all about retail morale to help carry the water anymore.
Instead, they're now really, really worried about how CHEAPLY they can make it happen.
They are wondering if they can't edge out just a sliver more alpha out of what will already be a blow-out trade for the history books (probably). You see, to make it happen they just have to keep hoovering up shares. It doesn't matter what those shares cost. If you're certain that the squeeze is now locked in, why push the price up and pay more than you have to? Just keep pressing hard enough to force short-side to keep sending those tasty shares your way, but not so much you move the price. Short-side realizes this and doesn't try to drive price down too aggressively. They can't afford to let price run away, so they have to keep some pressure on at the lowest volume they can manage, but they don't want to push down too hard and give the long-side HFTs too deep of a discount and bleed their ammo out even faster. That dynamic keeps price within a narrow (for GME today, anyway) trading range for the rest of the day into the close.
Good plan guys, but those after market people are pushing the price up again. Damnit WSB bros and Euros, you're costing those poor long-side whales their extra 0.0000001% of alpha on this trade just so you can run up your green rockets... See, that's the kind of nonsense that just validates Lee Cooperman's concerns.
On a totally unrelated note, I have to say that I appreciate the shift in CNBC's reporting. Much more thoughtful and informed. Just please get a good market technician in there who will be willing to talk about what is going on under the hood if possible. A lot of people watching on the sidelines are far more terrified than they need to be because it all looks random to them. And they're worried that you guys look confused and worried--and if the experts on the news are worried....??!
You should be able to find one who has access to the really good data that we retailers can only guess at, who can explain it to us unwashed masses.

Ok, So.. Questions

There is no market justification for this. How can you tell me is this fundamentally sound and not just straight throwing money away irresponsibly?? (side note: not that that should matter--if you want to throw your money away why shouldn't you be allowed to?)
We're not trading in your securities pricing model. This isn't irrational just because your model says long and short positions are the same thing. The model is not a real market. There is asymmetrical counterparty risk here given the shorts are on the hook for all the money they have, and possibly all the money their brokers have, and possibly anyone with exposure to the broker too! You may want people to trade by the rules you want them to follow. But the rest of us trade in the real market as it is actually implemented. Remember? That's what you tell the retailers who take their accounts to zero. Remember what you told the KBIO short-squeezed people? They had fair warning that short positions carry infinite risk, including more than your initial investment. You guys know this. It's literally part of your job to know this.
But-but-the systemic risk!! This is Madness!
...Madness?
THIS. IS. THE MARKET!!! *Retail kicks the short-side hedge funds down an infinity loss black hole\*.
Ok, seriously though, that is actually a fundamentally sound, and properly profit-driven answer at least as justifiable as the hedge funds' justification for going >100% of float short. If they can be allowed to gamble INFINITE LOSSES because they expect to make profit on the possibility the company goes bankrupt, can't others do the inverse on the possibility the company I don't know.. doesn't go bankrupt and gets a better strategy from the team that created what is now a $43bn market cap company (CHWY) that does exactly some of the things GME needs to do (digital revenue growth) maybe? I mean, I first bought in on that fundamental value thesis in the 30s and then upped my cost basis given the asymmetry of risk in the technical analysis as an obvious no-brainer momentum trade. The squeeze is just, as WSB people might say, tendies raining down from on high as an added bonus.
I get that you disagree on the fundamental viability of GME. Great. Isn't that what makes a market?
Regarding the consequences of a squeeze, in practice my expectation was maybe at worst some kind of ex-market settlement after liquidation of the funds with exposure to keep things nice and orderly for the rest of the market. I mean, they handled the VW thing somehow right? I see now that I just underestimated elite hedge fund managers though--those guys are so hardcore (I'll explain why I think so a bit lower down).
If hedge fund people are so hardcore, how did the retail long side ever have a chance of winning this squeeze trade they're talking about?
Because it's an asymmetrical battle once you have short interest cornered. And the risk is also crazily asymmetrical in favor of the long side if short interest is what it is in GME. In fact, the hedge funds essentially cornered themselves without anyone even doing anything. They just dug themselves right in there. Kind of impressive really, in a weird way.
What does the short side need to cover? They need the price to be low, and they need to buy shares.
How does price move lower? You have to push share volume such that supply overwhelms demand and price therefore goes down (man, I knew econ 101 would come in handy someday).
But wait... if you have to sell shares to push the price down.. won't you just undo all your work when you have to buy it back to actually cover?
The trick is you have to push price down so hard, so fast, so unpredictably, that you SCARE OTHER PEOPLE into selling their shares too, because they're scared of taking losses. Their sales help push the price down for free! and then you scoop them up at discount price! Also, there are ways to make people scared other than price movement and fear of losses, when you get right down to it. So, you know, you just need to get really, really, really good at making people scared. Remember to add a line item to your budget to make sure you can really do it right.
On the other hand..
What does the long side need to do? They need to own as much of the shares as they can get their hands on. And then they need to hold on to them. They can't be weak hands either. They need to be hands that will hold even under the most intense heat of battle, and the immense pressure of mind-numbing fear... they need to be as if they were made of... diamond... (oh wow, maybe those WSB people kind of have a point here).
Why does this matter? Because at some point the sell side will eventually run out of shares to borrow. They simply won't be there, because they'll be safely tucked away in the long-side's accounts. Once you run out of shares to borrow and sell, you have no way to move the price anymore. You can't just drop a fat stack--excuse me, I mean suitcase (we're talking hedge fund money here after all)--of Benjamins on the ticker tape directly. Only shares. No more shares, no way to have any direct effect on the price whatsoever.
Ok, doesn't that just mean trading stops? Can't you just out-wait the long side then?
Well, you could.. until someone on the long side puts 1 share up on a 69420 ask, and an even crazier person actually buys at that price on the last tick on a Friday. Let's just say it gets really bad at that point.
Ok.. but how do the retail people actually get paid?
Well, to be quite honest, it's entirely up to each of them individually. You've seen the volumes being thrown around the past week+. I guarantee you every single retailer out there could have printed money multiple times trading that flow. If they choose to, and time it well. Or they could lose it all--this is the market. Some of them apparently seem to have some plan, or an implicit trust in certain individuals to help them know when to punch out. Maybe it works out, but maybe not. There will be financial casualties on the field for sure--this is the bare-knuckled capitalist jungle after all, remember? But everyone ponied up to the table with their own money somehow, so they all get to play in the big leagues just like everyone else. In theory, anyway.
And now, Probably the #1 question I've been asked on all of these posts has been: So what happens next? Do we get the infinity squeeze? Do the hedge funds go down?
Great questions. I don't know. No one does. That's what I've said every time, but I get that's a frustrating answer, so I'll write a bit more and speculate further. Please again understand these are my opinions with a degree of speculation I wouldn't normally put in a post.

The Market and the Economy. Main Street, Wall Street, and Washington

The pandemic has hurt so many people that it's hard to comprehend. Honestly, I don't even pretend to be able to. I have been crazy fortunate enough to almost not be affected at all. Honestly, it is a little unnerving to me how great the disconnect is between people who are doing fine (or better than fine, looking at my IRA) versus the people who are on the opposite side of the ever-widening divide that, let's be honest, has been growing wider since long before the pandemic.
People on the other side--who have been told they cannot work even if they want to, who wonder if congress will get it together to at least keep them from getting thrown out of their house if they have to keep taking one for the team for the good of all, are wondering if they're even living in the same reality.
Because all they see on the news each day is that the stock market is at record highs, or some amazing tech stocks have 10x'd in the last 6 months. How can that be happening during a pandemic? Because The Market is not The Economy. The Market looks forward to that brighter future that Economy types just need to wait for. Don't worry--it'll be here sometime before the end of the year. We think. We're making money on that assumption right now, anyway. Oh, by the way, if you're in The Market, you get to get richer as a minor, unearned side-effect of the solutions our governments have come up with to fight the pandemic.
Wow. That sounds amazing. How do I get to part of that world?
Retail fintech, baby. Physical assets like real estate might be a bit out of reach at the moment, but stocks will do. I can even buy fractional shares of BRK/A LOL.
Finally, I can trade for my own slice of heaven, watching that balance go up (and up--go stonks!!). Now I too get to dream the dream. I get to feel connected to that mythical world, The Market, rather than being stuck in the plain old Economy. Sure, I might blow up my account, but that's because it's the jungle. Bare-knuckled, big league capitalism going on right here, and at least I get to show up an put my shares on the table with everyone else. At least I'm playing the same game. Everyone has to start somewhere--at least now I get to start, even if I have to learn my lesson by zeroing my account a few times. I've basically had to deal with what felt like my life zeroing out a few times before. This is number on a screen going to 0 is nothing.
Laugh or cry, right? I'll post my losses on WSB and at least get some laughs.
Geez, some of the people here are making bank. I better learn from them and see if they'll let me in on their trades. Wow... this actually might work. I don't understand yet, but I trust these guys telling me to hold onto this crazy trade. I don't understand it, but all the memes say it's going to be big.
...WOW... I can pay off my credit card with this number. Do I punch out now? No? Hold?... Ok, getting nervous watching the number go down but I trust you freaks. We're still in the jungle, but at least I'm in with with my posse now. Market open tomorrow--we ride the rocket baby! And if it goes down, at least I'm going down with my crew. At least if that happens the memes will be so hilarious I'll forget to cry.
Wow.. I can't believe it... we might actually pull this off. Laugh at us now, "pros"!
We're in The Market now, and Market rules tell us what is going to happen. We're getting all that hedge fund money Right? Right?
Maybe.
First, I say maybe because nothing is ever guaranteed until it clears. Secondly, because the rules of The Market are not as perfectly enforced as we would like to assume. We are also finding out they may not be perfectly fair. The Market most experts are willing to talk about is really more like the ideal The Market is supposed to be. This is the version of the market I make my trading decisions in. However, the Real Market gets strange and unpredictable at the edges, when things are taken to extremes, or rules are pushed beyond the breaking point, or some of the mechanics deep in the guts of the Real Market get stretched. GME ticks basically all of those boxes, which is why so many people are getting nervous (aside from the crazy money they might lose). It's also important to remember that the sheer amount of money flowing through the market has distorting power unto itself. Because it's money, and people really, really, really like their money--especially when they're used to having a lot of it, and rules involving that kind of money tend to look more... flexible, shall we say.
Ok, back to GME. If this situation with GME is allowed to play out to its conclusion in The Market, we'll see what happens. I think all the long-side people get the chance to be paid (what, I'm not sure--and remember, you have to actually sell your position at some point or it's all still just numbers on your screen), but no one knows for certain.
But this might legitimately get so big that it spills out of The Market and back into The Economy.
Geez, and here I thought the point of all of this was so that we all get to make so much money we wouldn't ever have to think and worry about that thing again.
Unfortunately, while he's kind of a buzzkill, Thomas Petterfy has a point. This could be a serious problem.
It might blow out The Market, which will definitely crap on The Economy, which as we all know from hard experience, will seriously crush Main Street.
If it's that big a deal, we may even need Washington to be involved. Once that happens, who knows what to expect.. this kind of scenario being possible is why I've been saying I have no idea how this ends, and no one else does either.
How did we end up in this ridiculous situation? From GAMESTOP?? And it's not Retail's fault the situation is what it is.. why is everyone telling US that we need to back down to save The Market?? What about the short-side hedge funds that slammed that risk into the system to begin with?? We're just playing by the rules of The Market!!
Well, here are my thoughts, opinions, and some even further speculation... This may be total fantasy land stuff here, but since I keep getting asked I'll share anyway. Just keep that disclaimer in mind.

A Study in Big Finance Power Moves: If you owe the bank $10,000, it's your problem...

What happens when you owe money you have no way to pay back? It's a scary question to have to face personally. Still, on balance and on average, if you're fortunate enough to have access to credit the borrowing is a risk that is worth taking (especially if you're reasonably careful). Lenders can take a risk loaning you money, you take a risk by borrowing in order to do something now that you would otherwise have had to wait a long time or maybe would never have realistically been able to do otherwise. Sometimes it doesn't work out. Sometimes it's due to reasons totally beyond your control. In any case, if you find yourself there you have no choice but to dust yourself off, pick yourself up as best as you can, and try to move on and rebuild. A lot of people had to learn that in 2008. Man that year really sucked.
Wall street learned their lessons too. Most learned what I think most of us would consider the right lessons--lessons about risk management, and the need to guard vigilantly against systemic risk, concentration of risk through excess concentration of leverage on common assets, etc. Many suspect that at least a few others may have learned an entirely different set of, shall we say, unhealthy lessons. Also, to try to be completely fair, maybe managing other peoples' money on 10x+ leverage comes with a kind of pressure that just clouds your judgement. I could actually, genuinely buy that. I know I make mistakes under pressure even when I'm trading risk capital I could totally lose with no real consequence. Whatever the motive, here's my read on what's happening:
First, remember that as much fun as WSB are making of the short-side hedge fund guys right now, those guys are smart. Scary smart. Keep that in mind.
Next, let's put ourselves in their shoes.
If you're a high-alpha hedge fund manager slinging trades on a $20bn 10x leveraged to 200bn portfolio, get caught in a bad situation, and are down mark-to-market several hundred million.. what do you do? Do you take your losses and try again next time? Hell no.
You're elite. You don't realize losses--you double down--you can still save this trade no sweat.
But what if that doesn't work out so well and you're in the hole >$2bn? Obvious double down. Need you ask? I'm net up on the rest of my positions (of course), and the momentum when this thing makes its mean reversion move will be so hot you can almost taste the alpha from here. Speaking of momentum, imagine the move if your friends on TV start hyping the story harder! Genius!
Ok, so that still didn't work... this is now a frigging 7 sigma departure from your modeled risk, and you're now locked into a situation that is about as close to mathematically impossible to escape as you can get in the real world, and quickly converging on infinite downside. Holy crap. The fund might be liquidated by your prime broker by tomorrow morning--and man, even the broker is freaking out. F'in Elon Musk and his twitter! You're cancelling your advance booking on his rocket ship to Mars first thing tomorrow... Ok, focus--this might legit impact your total annual return. You need a plan, and you know the smartest people on the planet, right? The masters of the universe! Awesome--they've even seen this kind of thing before and still have the playbook!! Of course! It's obvious now--you borrow a few more billion and double down again first thing in the morning. So simple. Sticky note that Mars trip cancellation so you don't forget.
Ok... so that didn't work? You even cashed in some pretty heavy chits too. Ah well, that was a long shot anyway. So where were you? Oh yeah.. if shenanigans don't work, skip to page 10...
...Which says, of course, to double down again. Anyone even keeping track anymore? Oh, S3 says it's $40bn and we're going parabolic? Man, that chart gives me goosebumps. All according to plan...
So what happens tomorrow? One possible outcome of PURE FANTASTIC SPECULATION...
End of the week--phew. Never though it'd come. Where are you at now?... Over $9000^\)!!! Wow. You did it boys, and as a bonus the memes will be so sweet.
^\)side note: add 8 zeros to the end...
Awesome--your problems have been solved. Because...
​
..
​
BOOM
​
Now it's EVERYONE's problem. Come at me, Chamath, THIS is REAL baller shit.
Now all you gotta do is make all the hysterical retirees watching their IRAs hanging in the balance blame those WSB kids. Hahaha. Boomers, amirite? hate when those kids step on their law--I mean IRAs. GG guys, keep you memes. THAT is how it's done.
Ok, but seriously, I hope that's not how it ends. I guess we just take it day by day at this point.
Apologies for the length. Good luck in the market!
Also, apologies in advance for formatting, spelling, and grammatical errors. I was typing this thing in between doing all kinds of other things for most of the day.
Edit getting a bunch of questions on if it's possible the hedge funds are finding ways to cover in spite of my assumptions. Of course. I'm a retail guy trying to read the charts and price action. I don't have any special tools like the pros may have.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low, and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours.
Wow, what a week. All I'll say on that for now. I'll maybe do a recap of Friday at some point this weekend if I can.
For this post, rather than a narrative recap, I'll go into some very light technical analysis on a couple of screenshots from TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim and Ortex. I don't have a lot of time to go very deep into everything I normally do, but I wanted to give the newer traders an example of how I go about coming to some of my conclusions.
Some of the conclusions I came to in the heat of the moment in my previous posts may also not stand up to more rigorous scrutiny of the data. In my opinion, at least, it's very important to ensure that you go back and review any of your high conviction trades from time to time. Please feel free to use the charts I'll show to challenge some of the assumptions I may have made and written about while watching the live ticker tape action, social media, and other high-frequency sentiment indicators (things I might rely on for a hyper-realtime momentum monster trade like GME has been this past week). Maybe use them to challenge your own thoughts and assumptions as well.
I realized while doing this that writing those prior articles probably cost me ~$300k in momentum trade opportunity LOL, since I used all of my free non-trading hour time to write instead of do an even more in-depth version of what I'm going to show you now. That being said, if that writing helped any of you understand what was going on, and ultimately progress on your way to becoming better traders and investors, that to me is well worth it--maybe one day you too can pay it forward!
If any of you reading this are chart jockeys, please share some tips if you have them.
First, the charts (links since pics aren't allowed on this sub)

1. Ortex Short Interest Data
2. Daily Summary of the Week
3. 1/26/2021 Mini Squeeze Hourly
4. 1/28/2021 to 1/29/2021 Fibonacci Retracement

Fundamentals - Ortex Short Interest

First, lots of questions on the prior post about Short Interest remaining on GME so I'll start with this one. Looks good to me. I think Ortex will update end of trading Friday data just before/around Monday market open. I consider this chart to convey mostly fundamental data, as the underlying value thesis behind the recent push by retail traders has at least recently been about the squeeze. This is the type of data you'd use to try to analyze data about the security being traded. Note that most pro traders would not consider short interest to be a 'fundamental ' attribute, and normally I'd agree, but I think GME and maybe some of the other high SI plays are an exception to that.
If any of you are inclined to feel jumpy about the diving lines on the chart, make sure to look at the axis values on the left. The chart is calibrated to capture the movement over the period, so the bottom of the axes are not 0.
A few things to note:

1. Short interest drops substantially from 1/26 into 1/27
2. Volume is shrinking
3. Remaining free float on loan has gone down, but at 66% as of Thursday, is still quite high

Overview - Daily Chart & Summary of the Week

A few things going on here

1. The big volume days on Friday, Monday, and Tuesday are when it seems to me that the greatest retail momentum would have occurred. The battles were pretty intense at key price points if you take a closer look at those intra-day charts.
2. Big picture here, what it tells me is that many if not most of the retail share volume was acquired at or below $148 on huge volume. That means the core of your retail support, and the majority of shares in WSB diamond hands would have been bought probably between the $30 and $148 price range. My guess is that Only DFV the DFV early acolytes, Dr. Burry, and the institutional holders have meaningful volume below $30.
3. Given points 1 and 2, I'd consider the $148 price level as the critical defense level of your earliest, hardest retail support. You can dive deeper into the 1/26 trading day and possibly make a case for other levels as well, but I'll roll with that for now.
4. Ok, so maybe the Melvin guys weren't really lying. The Ortex data showing short interest drop from 1/26 to 1/27 coinciding with the massive and sudden price dislocation upward on 1/27.
5. If new shorts entered the game it would have been near the highs, possibly selling into the forced buying of what I'll just assume was the overnight Melvin squeeze and into the early market hours on 1/28. Possibly aggressive momentum shorting on top of the Robin Hood BS, the bots, and the networking issues came together in a perfect storm with that HFT ladder attack on the vertical dive. Wow--no wonder that thing was so intense.
6. As you can see on that downside wick on 1/28, the huge momentum briefly pierced the Retail line before being slammed back up. We'll take a closer look in the fibonacci chart.

Analysis - Mini Squeeze Hourly

Just a few notes. I checked and the after hours volume here was sudden, quite unusual, and pretty consistent with a forced liquidation of a substantial position. Rather than slamming it all out at once, the broker spread it out quite a bit. Some takeaways:

1. If you wanted to take money from Melvin, this was the chance, and a lot of people (or a few whales) certainly did. The numbers in my summary were very quick mental math of the hourly volumes in overnight trading
2. The price didn't break away as aggressively as it probably could have, which means there was some carefully calibrated pre-planning to unload a bunch of shares, laddering up to the $350 level.
3. I am genuinely sorry to have to conclude, therefore, that the WSB bros with the $420.00 limit got scooped. Something on the order of 17 million shares worth of Melvin dollars got cashed out under them by a HFT whale with access to firehose shares at Melvin's broker all the way through overnight trading. few retail even have the ability to trade for that entire window, and certainly not on the order of 17 million shares anyway.
4. Another important takeaway: 17 million shares is a lot, but it's nowhere near the entire original SI in GME. The Game hasn't necessarily Stopped yet (heh).

Technical Analysis - 1/28 to 1/29 Fibonacci Retracement

For those of you who are unfamiliar with what traders call "technical analysis", it's really just a fancy set of words to say looking at squiggly lines, bars, etc. on charts to try to figure out what's going on.
One particularly popular tool is called a fibonacci retracement. It sounds a lot fancier than it is, but it is extremely useful, and extremely commonly used by momentum traders (which is partly why it's useful--if everyone is trading off of the same thing, it's a self-reinforcing bias in the market). There is a lot of background reading you can do on the topic--I recommend it. You'll be a better trader and even investor for it, as it tends to be useful even on longer timeframe charts. Kind of uncanny really.
Looking at this chart I realize I probably should have plotted the 'retail line of defense' here too. Oh well, maybe next time.
Takeaways:

1. I figured the relevant trading range going forward was peak euphoria to peak despair in regular trading on relatively good volume. That happened to be the top to bottom move on the Robin Hood news.
2. Using that for the fibonacci retracement, you can see how much of the trading action bounces around between the various levels before settling in scarily accurately into the 50% - 61.8% channel in after hours trading.
3. it's quite possible that short-term equilibrium on this battleground stock is $300 to $350 until either side makes a strong push. Price was trapped in that range toward the end of normal trading on relatively good volume.
4. Probably a bunch of momentum traders drew exactly this retracement (or something very similar) for their rest of day trading after the floor got put in near the retail line of defense. In all honesty it's hard to say if the tool works because of some fundamental reason or because everyone uses it so everyone times their momentum plays off the same playbook, making it self-reinforcing. All that matters in the end is that it works pretty consistently once you get used to working with it.
5. Below the price graph, pay attention to the volume bars below. It's especially critical when trading momentum to understand the relationship between share volume and price, as there are patterns that are more likely to play out depending on the relationship. For example, when price is moving around a lot, is it doing so on high volume or not much volume?
6. Traders tend to overshoot a little on each push, so even if price ultimately drops lower after an upside spike, if the volume on that drop is low compared to the upward push, that actually tells you that it's likely to go higher a little later on. There are many sites that go more in depth into this kind of thing (patterns, volume and price analysis, etc.), and it is incredibly useful to try to understand what to take away from price and volume movement as you watch it unfold live.

Lots more going on here, but this post is getting pretty long already.

Other Takeaways

• The whales in the pond obviously do their homework (that's how they got to be that big, after all), and they were therefore prepared to act decisively to unload 17 million shares at the upper end of the trading range when Melvin got blown up. That's how you make big bank on big volume--do your homework.
• My thesis in the part 2 article that the big early drop before retail pre-market was a short-side scare tactic could very well be totally wrong. You could make a case either way that it was a new short-side player diving in at a higher price point, a long-side whale making bank, or a combo of both. if you check the Ortex data against the numbers here you can probably come up with an order of magnitude educated estimate. If so, apologies to the CNBC Squawk Box crew--probably no factual inaccuracies in your reporting (though the tone did make a lot of retail panic)
• Ironically, it might very well have been the continued unwinding of Melvin's short position that intercepted the panic drop into premarket rather than a long-side heavy hitter. LOL.
• Thursday afternoon and Friday were low volume, low-conviction momentum sloshing around. Dueling HFT algos and momentum traders trying to scalp alpha from each other is my guess.
• Contract expiration may cause a price dislocation into the new trading week, so I'm not sure the fibonacci retracement chart is still useful.
• I'm sure if I go back over my previous articles and compare to the chart data more carefully I'll find all kinds of other inconsistencies with my realtime thoughts. It's key when trading, at least in my opinion, that you are willing, able, and indeed eager to go back and rethink your assumptions, no matter how much you liked them. Challenge and verify with data whenever possible. Not doing that is how Melvin got blown up, after all.
• My worst case scenario thesis in the part 3 article may still be valid depending on the total amount of short interest loading up into GME at these newer highs. I remember hearing some fund manager talking about shorting GME at the $400 as a stabilization mechanism. Wow.. short something with the most hyper volatility of any $1bn+ stock I've ever heard of... for stability. That's not a word I'd ever associate with a WSB meme momentum rollercoaster stock.
• An infinity squeeze is still totally on the table, as long as sufficient short interest remains. The strategy and tactics you'd use to get there may have to be different though, as price ratchets up into higher bands. I'll keep those thoughts to myself--for sure those WSB guys have a plan. They've proven to be scary effective so far after all.

There are other things you can take away, or theses you can come up with from these and other charts you may have access to. Hopefully, for you newer traders I've given you a useful glimpse into how I might try to use readily available data to improve/challenge/refine a working thesis to ensure I'm better prepared for the days ahead. You should find the tools that seem to work best for you.
Hope you all have a good weekend. See you on the field on Monday.

Why buy AMC?

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1.) COVID vaccine rollout has started, and we will be able to attend movies soon. The Biden Administration (sorry for getting political, just pls keep reading) has an ambitious plan (100 million vaccines in 100 days or whatever the fuck) and this pandemic is almost over. I’d give it until the end of the year.
2.) Most AMC theatres are open or they are planning to open soon with social distancing and mask measures in place. They will shut down the food services and concessions, but they are coming back.
3.) Consumers have a sentimental connection to movies. They will come back. People are starved for the outside world and will come out in massive hordes to watch movies. People will go out and see movies, take their kids, go on dates, etc. Nothing can replicate the experience of a giant screen and surround audio.
4.) This major influx of blue balled movie goers will cause a major boost in 2021. Then we will see a continuation of the year over year growth we have been seeing since 2012.
5.) The AMC business model is working. The revenue has steadily increased since 2012 year over year. In 2012, they made $811 million. In 2019, they made $5.47 billion. There has been a steady rise. THEY ARE NOT IN DECLINE.
6.) I understand they have many loans, but it is something that can be paid off in a few years with the help of their parent company, Wanda Entertainment, and increased profits in 2021.
7.) They will not go bankrupt. WANDA entertainment, a Chinese company owns the plurality share (20%) and will bail them out if it is necessary. They bought for $2.6 billion in 2012, and have seen a ROI, scoring $2.7 billion in 2013, the year immediately after their purchase. AMC is too good of an asset for Wanda to lose them. Also, AMC can take advantage of new stimulus and other government assistance programs.
8.) It’s extremely cheap right now because everybody is shorting, and there’s a pandemic. Corona is only temporary. Everybody thought GameStop was going to go under, until we showed them. Remember that.
9.) If there is interest or heightened trading in the stock, AMC can dilute shares and sell them to help finance operations and pay debt, using stock sales as leverage. AMC just did this today, and they can do it again if needed.
10.) AMC will not go bankrupt, not only because of the potential Wanda bailout, but they also raised $917 million today. They have enough runway to stay operational the end of the year. "Bankruptcy is off the table for now." (We should be able to return to theatres by then.) A slight majority of this new liquidity comes from issuing new shares, as described in 9. They are also planning to do debt/equity swaps, so those who take out debt can hold shares in the company, and AMC won't get fucked over by high loan payments.
11.) AMC is about 70% shorted, there is much potential to cause a squeeze. However, there are still many more reasons to invest in AMC beyond a simple short squeeze.
12.) AMC does very well when it is not pandemic. $5.4 billion in revenue last year, and there will be many movies, as well as many moviegoers that come out after the pandemic. Especially with major franchise movies, which have been delayed. They have also reached a deal with Universal, which allows Universal to do home releases earlier, but stipulates they must be in theatres for 17 days before that.
13.) AMC is only $12 a share right now... Even if it loses, you’re only going to lose a bit. Meanwhile, the ceiling is high, and there is much potential. If you want in, do it now while it's cheap. People keep talking about how dumb it is to buy during the pandemic, but this is the point of largest potential. Don't wait for the recovery to buy.
14.) AMC used to trade at $10 before the pandemic. Let’s keep it at its former glory. AMC deserved a $1bn market cap and they got one. They will probably hit $20 tomorrow (predicting $25 by Feb1, peak in summer with COVID all done.).
15.) Even though the Net income is negative and they lose money, it consistently stays in the hundred thousands range, and it does not lose that much. Any autist on here from GME could pay the difference. AMC has also increased gross profits year over year, from 2,004,200 in 2016, to 3,493,200.
(The rest of these bullet points are just jokes, so feel free to skip if you want.)
16.) Without AMC there’s no place to spend my AMC points, and there better be a place for me to spend those points because I invested my entire life savings into those damn AMC stubs.
17.) Going to the movies was my childhood. We must save my childhood. DO NOT LET AMC DIE. Save AMC.
18.) You can take ur wife and her bf to the movies when this is over.
19.) The AMC food court literally sells tendies. (But we should call AMC tendies popcorns instead.)
20.) STONCCS only go up.
21.) you guys are all retard who cannot think for themselves and will do whatever is echoed in this fucking internet cave.
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TL;DR : AMC has done a great job with fundraising and can survive until the end of the year. Vaccine rollout has started, and recovery is coming soon. People are due to return to movies. About 70% of shares are shorted, so we can potentially trigger a squeeze.

Pandemic recovery & squeeze combo.

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Buy AMC. Or don’t. Your choice.
If you’re with us, let's save the movies. I hope you like popcorn. Get on the rocket, because you're going to the moon.
If you don’t, then bye bye, I wish you the best.
"The sun is shining on AMC." - Adam Aron
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Sources Cited:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/movies/ct-ent-movie-theaters-reopening-0123-2021
https://www.amctheatres.com/amc-safe-and-clean#locations
https://www.statista.com/statistics/206959/revenue-of-amc-theatres/
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/01/25/amc-ceo-adam-aron-on-917m-financing.html
https://www.highshortinterest.com/
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/universal-amc-deal-theaters-pandemic-1234801134/
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/amc
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210125005273/en/AMC-Raises-917-Million-of-Fresh-Investment-Capital-Since-Mid-December-of-2020
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Portfolio disclosure: I own 200 shares of AMC long currently.
The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice. Invest at your own risk, and understand that you may lose money. These are just my thoughts, make your own decisions, and do your own research.
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EDIT: the autobot seriously out here banning me for talking AMC smh. It was fucking worth it.Well, if i can't comment, I will let you know that I am with you AMC army retards with my upvotes and awards.

EDIT 2: GODDAMN I REALLY WANT TO REPLY TO SOME OF THIS SHIT BUT I CANT

EDIT 3: for the retards buying calls, BUY SHARES, not calls.

EDIT 4: for those of you who can't understand English, what i'm trying to say is

$AMC🚀🚀🚀

translation.

EDIT 5: ONCE AGAIN, BUY SHARES NOT CALLS. NOT DIFFICULT. also i've realized that most of you are buying because i said "short squeeze one time". this isn't over, this is going far beyond the squeeze. diamond hands until COVID ends.

EDIT 6: $5 END OF DAY LETS GO LETS GO LETS GO OPEN THE FUCKING WALLET

EDIT 7: DONT BE A PAPERHANDS BITCH! GO BUY THE DIP! You’ll need some dip for your tendies, there are no stops on the way to the moon. (You’ll have to piss in a bucket)

EDIT 8: updated price targets on AMC, updated portfolio disclosure, and now a reason 21.

EDIT 9: there will not be a dip. Go buy it now to fuel the rocket. It’s not too late. If there is a dip, take advantage to expand your holding in AMC

EDIT 10: (because I’m a greedy bitch): if you feel like supporting me, you can either

1.) buy amc shares.

OR

2.) make a direct donation to me. My crypto wallet is:

0x86c4e867c9E5b72872a505d2ae1F24312E3b73c8 You can send me any coins, but EtheEtheruem (ETH) is preferred.

EDIT 11: i have a twitter now.

EDIT 12: HOLY SHIT I'M UNBANNED, TIME TO REPLY!

EDIT 13: making price adjustments to keep this relevant.

EDIT 14: keeping it relevant

EDIT 15: reminder: it’s buy o clock. You best not sell. HOLD THE LINE. We’re heading to the moon, no matter what these robberhood shittertons or hedge funds say. We fell because we were locked out of purchasing. We will return to normal. DONT SURRENDER NOW. HOLD THE LINE. HOLD THE STONK.

So, right now, you might be asking yourself "Fuck Robinhood. Where should I, Timmy from Charlotte, move my account? Fuck Robinhood. How do I get away from Citadel? Fuck Robinhood. What is going on? Fuck Robinhood." I'm not 100% sure where this post is going so I can't promise I'll answer any of those questions but my goal here is still coherent conversation so maybe someone else might have those answers in the comments. Idk.

What is Citadel and what do they do?

A hedge fund wrapped up with an advisory service, an execution venue, a market maker, an IPO partner, a sandwich shop, etc.. Such megacorps pay firms fractions of a cent to pass each order through them for execution. The more orders the brokerage passes along, the more they're paid. Money is involved because the more orders that pass through a particular execution venue first, the faster they can make decisions about the direction of the market on both the micro and macro scale. This is the current nature of the market. Order data for 'new' and 'small' traders using self-directed firms has been especially valuable the last 20 years because you do things institutions cannot. You can open a new position based on a tweet while the major advisory services need to whip out the scales and weigh the cost of moving assets for countless customers at once and that's even further complicated if they're designated fiduciaries because, in their book, reacting quickly implies that there's unknown risks involved. For example, they did the numbers on a particular company six months ago and decided it wouldn't be profitable in another six months. Even in 2021, they just can't move as fast as you but knowing what you're doing is a step closer to them being able to respond sooner with smaller changes rather than react with major changes when shit hits the fan. (BTW, the fatal flaw on $GME is that they tried to play the old 'cull the weak' game that worked for them for decades and absolutely chose to ignore the direction the market was moving until it was too late. If they'd used the order flow and other data they're paying so much cash to access and were as bright as they imagine they are, it would have been rough but even hardcore shorts could have lived through this week. Retail investors can pat themselves on the back for exploiting it but Melvin Capital got fucked by hubris and lack of awareness.)
Not to get all RZA between songs on it but that's why the title of this sub has been 'Welcome to the machine!' for a long time now. The major players know you dream of making it big, buying a car, having a steak, and all the other things Roger wrote about, just by doing something you enjoy (playing guitar but it could be your art, you talents in math or science, taps in a mobile game, or in this instance investing) and they'll welcome you in with open arms, convince you that they'll be a guide and there to help, knowing they'll get a cut just by letting you do what you do and finding a way to package it. People over simplify it with "if the service is free, you are the product" because they don't notice that the machine will also make you pay if it can. Money for order flow has made it easier for others to provide the space for you to do what you do without noticing they're cashing in even if you don't but don't forget that the machine can be other investors. The machine can be the large firms. The machine can be investment advice columnists. Hedge funds and brokerages aren't the only 'machine operators' in the financial industry.

Which firms use Citadel and which ones don't?

They all use Citadel.
I'm not joking, I've kept up to date on execution venues (people probably thought I was just lecturing them about understanding order flow here but I dislike Virtu as a venue and Apex as a clearing firm which I've talked about here for years) and the concentration of orders being fed to the short list of venues has not changed in a positive way because that's where the money is. The idea for this post came to me this morning because no news article, no TV interview, and not a single hot take on Twitter I've read so far has managed to mention just how embedded Citadel individually is in the modern market. I had AOC's live stream on in the background last night and even the guests seemed to imply that Citadel is a little firm propping up Robinhood and that nobody could have seen this blowing up one day. These relationships (even down to how much money is paid) are public by law. Every quarter, both sides are required to release data on order flow in 605 (raw), and 606/607 reports.
Here's a quick rundown of places I could come up with off the top of my head that use Citadel as their primary or secondary execution venue and what percentage of orders for S&P 500 listed securities they recently sent through Citadel:

Firm	Market orders %	Marketable* limit orders %
e*Trade	36.33	37.16
Schwab	31.61	30.06
TDA	60.04	59.25
Edward Jones	36.91	47.49
Webull	50.85	53.71
Interactive Brokers	25.34	11.24
Wells Fargo	35.02	32.85
Firsttrade #	0.95	0.60
TradeStation	28.14	26.90
ally	40.15	44.76
Robinhood	50.82	50.24
Alpaca $	11.07	3.31
IEX %	N/A	N/A
Fidelity	52.28	45.09
Apex clearing @	40.97	42.76
Wealthfront	100	50.01
Tastyworks	59.97	61.18

* Marketable limit orders are those that immediately have a chance of executing against the current spread
^# Firsttrade is predominantly a dark pool only sending orders away when they require liquidity
^$ Alpaca is an API-first firm which I like and talk about on Discord sometimes because I wish RH would open their API but they're still backed by Apex which I dissuade everyone from getting involved with because Penson Financial Services.
^% IEX is a closed loop exchange that internally clears orders among customers (great source for free order data to test algos)
^@ Apex is the clearing agent for many smaller firms including Public.com, Betterment, Acorns, M1, Rize, Stockpile, Stash,
Now, when you look at that list, remember three things:

• that 99.9% of the remaining orders are going to Wolverine, Virtu, 2 Sigma, and other hedge fund adjacent venues for execution
  
• brokerages were doing the same back when they were also charging commissions. I don't feel firms being paid for order flow is inherently wrong but whatever agreement Citadel has in place to force firms to act in Citadel's best interest over customers and even over the brokerage's own best interest is difficult to wrap my mind around right now. Which brings me to my next point...
  
• Citadel's most loyal sources for order flow (Robinhood, TDA, Webull, and IB) all fell in line and limited trading at least part of the day. The agreements between these companies and Citadel are obviously not public but I'm sure Citadel has them bent over a contractual barrel that left them with no choice but to comply. As a customer of half of those firms, I say they should have done whatever they could to explain the actual situation to the public (spoilers: it wasn't risk on the retail side), taken whatever penalties Citadel could impose for ignoring them (all the way up to breach of contract, etc), and fight that out in court rather than act in ways that seems to have only punished and confused customers. Corporate level decision making is so fucking stupid.
  

Where to go?

Fino.
If IEX was larger, that would be a decent alternative for equities but they don't have a silly app that looks good in screenshots but tells you nothing useful. I can't think of a self-directed firm that can currently exist without Citadel and the rest. If you do, post about it, I guess.

More things I for sure do not know...

...but hope someone wants to talk about.

• I don't know shit about the legality of anything that has gone on this week with Robinhood and no, I will not be a part of any lawsuit because I was not effected by what happened because I don't have any options or equity holdings in Robinhood and cannot claim damages. Stop asking me.
  
• I'm not even sure if splitting corporations up anti-trust style would work for this. For sure, it was Citadel's vested interest that cascaded down to firms and then users but I don't know of any cases that forced divestiture on that scale. Hedge funds with cases in a friendly district could make a valid claim that they cannot function without access to both order data and current assets. It'll be interesting to see if anything changes over the next few years and how.
  

Disclosure

Doxxing myself more and more but I worked for a market analytics/quantitative research firm in the city that was eventually gobbled up by Virtu. I'd moved abroad months earlier anyway but we loved that job and they only wanted the algos we'd designed so fuck Virtu.
My current day job makes trading public companies complex (which is why I only talk about algotrading ETH on Discord). Most of my self-directed play money is still with TDA (haven't made a trade there or on RH in almost three years) but the majority of my family's assets, my retirement, my kid's inheritances and college funds, and on and on have been handled by GS for nearly two decades and likely will continue to be even after I return to the private sector. Now, what would be sweet is if Goldman Sachs would extend their investment arm (which sends orders directly to exchanges) to the general public like they have with their Marcus savings accounts. If they could devise a way to legally pass a good percentage of all (would be dependent on volume of the security, etc.) orders directly to the floor as a bundle, they'd break even at best on it but that would actually 'democratize the market.'

All I read now on "new WSB" is about how robinhood stopped the GME squeeze, and they "robbed" investors. "This was going to $1,000, we got robbed!" is every other damn post.
Now, personally, I don't buy that this is all a big conspiracy, and that all the brokers halted trading to save one hedge fund. As a long time trader (who has witnessed a lot of halts), it seems far more likely that the brokers were at risk of getting fucked, and they protected themselves. But, I won't get into that, because that's not the point of this post.
This is the point:
THE STOCK MARKET ISN'T FAIR. Never has been, never will be. For example:
1) Big money has access to so much information you don't have. They have access to order flows and shit that cost a fortune. They have entire departments and insiders that do nothing but research and investigate. Is that fair?
2) Big money trades on platforms like bloomberg terminals (and similar), and they can literally see more accurate prices and trade quicker than you. Is that fair?
3) Big money has access to advanced algos that you could never dream of accessing, that auto-trade for them. Is that fair?
4) Big money has so much money that they can literally alter the prices of stocks by buying/selling. They can rotate between stocks and ETFs that hold the stocks to remain invested while manipulating pricing. Is that fair?
I could literally write a 500 point list, but my point is clear: the shit ain't fair. It's no secret. As a retail trader, you are a little guppy punk-ass bitch in a big dick shark pool.
But we all know that. It's never been about being fair, it's about profiting from the landscape that we are in.
If you buy into GME at $50, and that shit goes to $500 in a matter of days, then you see some sketchy shit happening and think "wow the hedge funds and market makers are gonna put an end to this shit..." Then you hold until it crashes back down to $50 and cry "it's not fair," then you're a fucking idiot. I'm sorry, but that's the deal.
We know big money has the power to crash a stock, so if you see it happening, sell. Better yet, sell and switch to shorts, and play both sides. Don't lose all of your money and then claim the market isn't fair. No shit it isn't fair. What's your point? Profit off that unfairness, ya dumb bitch.
The millions of new WSBers all posting about how "it isn't fair" and "we got robbed," it's basically like a little bitch crime boss making a deal with the rival big dick crime boss, then crying because the big dick crime boss lied and stole his money. Hey, no shit. Criminals do that. If you're a crime boss, you know the other crime boss is probably fucking lying, so you hedge against his lies and use that shit against him. That's how it works.
And that's how it works here, too. In the criminal world, people lie to you. In the stock market, big money manipulates shit. You can punch the sky, or you can accept that and play the game with those realities in mind.
When I am in a trade, sure, I'm thinking about the fundamentals and future company performance. The news cycle. All the boring shit. But I'm also thinking about big money, retail traders, who is involved and how they are involved, and how all they will react to shifts in the stock price. You have to, because that's how the market ticks.
You only win by playing by the rules of the game, and the rules of this game are that the market is largely smoke and mirrors, and you'll never have even 1% of the knowledge or power that a typical hedge fund has. Don't fight it into bankruptcy like a fucking dongus. Play the game.
Am I being negative? Nah, I'm being realistic. You want to fight to make the market more free and fair? Go on. Fight to make it better. It's a good thing to do, and I support it. And I'll help you. But in the meantime, accept what the market is right now. Don't throw you and your family's money away as a moral martyr, saying "well i wouldn't have lost all my money if the market was different!" It's not different. It is what it is.
And if you legitimately can't disconnect yourself from that idealism, then it's probably just best not to trade. For your own sake.