Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting

#		Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.		Chiefs	--	12-1	The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.		Packers	+2	10-3	There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.		Bills	+2	10-3	For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.		Saints	-1	10-3	This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.		Steelers	-3	11-2	The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.		Rams	--	9-4	Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.		Colts	+1	9-4	Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.		Titans	+1	9-4	Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.		Seahawks	+1	9-4	Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.		Ravens	+2	8-5	This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.		Browns	-4	9-4	Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.		Buccaneers	-1	8-5	The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.		Dolphins	--	8-5	There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.		Cardinals	+1	7-6	A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.		Raiders	-1	7-6	The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.		Washington FT	+3	6-7	Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.		Vikings	--	6-7	Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.		Bears	+5	6-7	The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.		Patriots	-3	6-7	Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.		49ers	-2	5-8	The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21.		Broncos	+5	5-8	Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22.		Giants	-2	5-8	It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.		Falcons	-1	4-9	Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.		Panthers	-3	4-9	I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.		Eagles	+3	4-8-1	Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.		Lions	-1	5-8	Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.		Chargers	--	4-9	First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.		Texans	-4	4-9	The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.		Cowboys	--	4-9	The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.		Bengals	--	2-10-1	Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.		Jaguars	--	1-12	This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.		Jets	--	0-13	The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.

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We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!
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Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

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The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.
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It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player
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Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.
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For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/kab5kwvkbif61/player
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Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
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Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:

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As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.
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When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/eopgbempbif61/player
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While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.
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I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/meu60dlrbif61/player
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Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
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Examining the first matchup:

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Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:
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When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/8b7dchqzbif61/player
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Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
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What each team can take away:

A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:
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For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.
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https://preview.redd.it/enx2gsi8eif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=1de643c848aefd212231c5e7a3059c580c0967b7
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On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
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X-factors:

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https://preview.redd.it/3hthyyz2cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=05ce975ec5a0319694f3e404cce356c9e82c60c4

Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean

I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.
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https://preview.redd.it/tof7xfc4cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=acd57311d38bd8217491b102f927017514a6b1bd

Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill

I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
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Prediction:

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On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.
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https://preview.redd.it/njt5v586cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c20c0b875bf0f9fb7d19841500f93ec8ad78f42
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Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28

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So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece!
Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!

I’m seeing a lot of misinformation about Wentz on this sub, so I thought it would be useful to provide some clear, concise, unbiased, data-driven information about Wentz’ contract and play this season. Hopefully this helps users be more informed about the situation when forming their opinions.

• - - - - What is left on Wentz’ contract? - - - - -

For simplicity, I will be rounding off all the numbers. Here is a breakdown of Wentz’ contract.
There are three main elements to understand about his contract: his yearly salaries, his signing/option bonus, and his upcoming roster bonus.
Salaries: 15M in ‘21, guaranteed. 22M in ’22; most of this guarantees on March 19, 2021; the rest guarantees at the start of the ’22 season. Salaries in '23 and '24 are not guaranteed. Guaranteed salaries cannot be removed from the cap via a cut, but can be removed from the cap via a trade, as the new team takes on the salaries.
Signing/Option Bonus: 33M. The actual money has already been paid, which means there is no way for the Eagles to remove it from their cap(s). Currently, the cap charges are spread out 9M/9M/9M/6M over ’21-’24. If Wentz is cut or traded after ’20, all of this money goes onto the ’21 cap. Likewise, if he is cut or traded after ’21, the remaining money (24M) goes onto the ’22 cap. There are ways to spread it out over two years instead of one, but no matter what happens, this 33M is going on the Eagles' cap eventually.
Roster Bonus: 10M, guaranteed, paid on March 19, 2021. The Eagles can remove this from their cap by trading Wentz before this date (the new team pays it instead). If he is on the roster on this date, or cut, this 10M counts on their ’21 cap. Wentz does not have a roster bonus in ’22.
If the Eagles keep Wentz in '21, his cap charge is 34M.
Finally, Wentz is scheduled to make an additional 26M in each of ’23 and ’24, but since none of that money is guaranteed, it’s not relevant to the current cap situation. If Wentz is traded or released, all that money goes poof.

• - - - - What happens if the Eagles trade or cut Wentz? - - - - -

It depends on when it happens.
Scenario One: If Wentz is traded before March 19, 2021, he will have a dead cap hit of 33M in ’21, slightly less than his cap charge if they keep him (the actual difference is about 800k). He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond.
Scenario Two: If Wentz is traded after March 19, 2021, but before the season starts, he will have a dead cap hit of 43M in ’21. He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond.
Scenario Three: If Wentz is traded after the ’21 season, he will have a dead cap hit of 24M in ’22. He will be off the books in ’23 and beyond.
Scenario Four: If Wentz is cut before March 19, 2021, he will have a dead cap hit of 49M in ’21. He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond.
Scenario Five: If Wentz is cut after March 19, 2021, but before the season starts, he will have a dead cap hit of 59M in ’21. Also, Howie Roseman will be publicly executed for his crimes against the Eagles salary cap.
Scenario Six: If Wentz is cut after the ’21 season, he will have a dead cap hit of $39M in ’22. He will be off the books in ’23.
NOTE: There are ways to spread out these cap hits over two seasons instead of one. There are also ways to restructure Wentz’ contract prior to a trade, which would change these numbers. For simplicity, I’m not going to cover all those scenarios.

• - - - - What is Wentz’ contract for an acquiring team? - - - - -

It’s important to understand that Wentz' contract is far more palatable to any team that acquires him via a trade, since that team would not be responsible for his signing/option bonus money.
An acquiring team is only responsible for his ’21 salary, his ’22 salary (because it guarantees in '21), and his ’21 roster bonus (assuming the trade is made before March 19, which is likely). That means they would be paying Wentz 25M in ’21, and 22M in ’22. Those are very affordable numbers for a decent starting QB; for comparison, Carolina will pay Bridgewater 23M next season. Cousins’ cap number is 31M next season. Brisett is eating 21M while sitting on the bench this season, and the Colts guaranteed 25M to 39-year-old Rivers.
Further, if the trade works out, an acquiring team could keep Wentz for around 26M in ’23 and ’24, with none of it guaranteed. Those are attractive numbers.
Essentially, an acquiring team is gambling 47M on Wentz. If it works out, they have him on a very reasonable contract for four years. If he plays at '18-'19 levels, his contract would be around market value. If he plays at '17 levels, he would be a bargain, especially in '23 and '24 when the cap will be much higher.

• - - - - How badly has Wentz played this season? - - - - -

I will be using statistics from Football Outsiders. The relevant statistics are DVOA and DYAR. DVOA “represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations.” DYAR “gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.” In other words, DVOA is value per play, and DYAR is total accumulated value (basically DVOA times the number of plays).
I will be rounding numbers for simplicity. Rankings are out of the number of QBs who threw at least 200 passes in the given season. These numbers are for passing only; Wentz does add some value with his running, but it’s not a huge amount (average around 40 DYAR per season).
Here are Wentz’ numbers for the past four seasons:
2017: 24% DVOA (ranked 6/35), 1047 DYAR (8/35).
2018: 8% DVOA (13/34), 545 DYAR (14/34).
2019: 0% DVOA (20/34), 476 DYAR (17/34).
2020: -38% DVOA (33/34), -831 DYAR (34/34).
How about some context? Here are the QBs over the past 10 seasons who posted -30% DVOA or worse. Yes, that’s an arbitrary cutoff, so be it.
2016 Goff: -75% (rookie)
2018 Rosen: -54% (rookie)
2011 Gabbert: -47% (rookie)
2012 Quinn: -44%
2019 Haskins: -42% (rookie)
2014 J.McCown: -42%
2020 Darnold: -41%
2014 Bortles: -41% (rookie)
2020 Wentz: -38%
2018 Allen: -36% (rookie)
2013 Weeden: -36%
2017 Kizer: -35% (rookie)
2012 Skelton: -35%
2014 Griffin: -34%
2020 Smith: -33%
2011 Painter: -33% (2nd year, first year starting)
2013 Pryor: -32% (2nd year, first year starting)
2011 Ponder: -32% (rookie)
2012 Cassel: -30%
Only two of those players, Goff and Allen, ever had productive seasons afterwards.
But only three of those players, Wentz, Smith, and Griffin, ever had productive seasons beforehand. Smith is 36 years old and coming off a catastrophic injury, so he’s not a great comparison. The best comparison is Griffin, who was excellent for a rookie in 2012 (17% DVOA), got injured and became average in 2013, and has barely seen the field since 2014.
Other than that, it’s hard to find adequate comparisons for Wentz. It’s unprecedented for a productive 5th year starting QB to suddenly become this bad, this fast. Outsiders wrote about this here, so please read that article if you want more comparisons.
I’m going to stray from my unbiased, data-driven approach for a moment. One thing I’ve noticed on this sub (and the internet in general) is that while everyone realizes Wentz has played poorly this season, a lot of people don’t seem to grasp just how poorly he’s played. A common opinion seems to be, “it’s one bad season, he can bounce back.” And while that is possible, I think it’s important to understand that this is not a routine bad season. Through 12 games, Wentz was on pace to break the all-time record for negative DYAR in a season, set by Josh Rosen. The only players who have seasons this bad are rookies, veterans who are over the hill, and random back-ups who end up starting for whatever reason. The vast majority of QBs who play this poorly are never productive starters again. Wentz’ collapse, from proven starter in his prime to this, is unprecedented.

• - - - - What will happen? - - - - -

Because Wentz' career arc is unique, it's very difficult to predict his future. It's possible Wentz rebounds and becomes a productive starter again. It's possible he is out of the league in 2023. And of course, every outcome in between those extremes is possible as well.
It's important to think about this situation probabilistically. It's fallacy to say, "Wentz will rebound." It's fallacy to say, "Wentz is finished." The truth is we don't know, and even assigning rough probabilities to those outcomes is extremely difficult.
As such, it's also difficult to predict what the Eagles will do. As detailed in the contract section(s), Wentz' contract is tradable; a trade helps the Eagles' cap in '22, and his contract his affordable to an acquiring team.
The core question behind a possible Wentz trade is this: what is more valuable to the Eagles, the unknown chance that Wentz regains his form, or the known cap space in '22 plus any pick(s) they get in a trade?
It's up to Lurie, and/or Roseman, to answer that question.

Great week last week. Ravens crushed Jacksonville while The Jets upset a very popular Rams pick. We have 2 weeks standing between us and a perfect season now. Unfortunately this week is going to be a bit tighter than we would like.
I don't care about stupid math stuff, just give me the team to pick
Houston Texans. Though the Chicago Bears are also very reasonable. The current spreads for each game is -8 and -7.5. I would definitely keep an eye on these lines and just take whichever one is larger on Sunday.
Though the Texans lost last week they were tied against a very good Colts team late in the game. On the flip side, Cincinnati did just upset Pittsburgh, though they also got blown out by the Cowboys just a week earlier.
I definitely do not feel super comfortable this week, but it's what we have left to work with.
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Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	HOU	77%	68.6%	16.66
2	CHI	75%	66.8%	16.64
3	ARI	68%	60.5%	16.57
4	WSH	58%	51.6%	16.47

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Sunday Update
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Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	CHI	77%	68.6%	16.66
2	HOU	75%	66.8%	16.64
3	PHI	60%	53.4%	16.49
4	WSH	53%	47.2%	16.42

Looks like the lines on CHI/HOU have flipped so CHI is now the mathematically better choice.
The two are still so close that if you want to go with HOU instead for personal reasons I wouldn't hesitate.
I think the news yesterday of James Robinson being out today cemented my decision to go with CHI.
In other news the CLE line dropped like a rock this morning from over 10 to under 7. If you still have them available I would probably switch at this point to CHI or HOU.
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Season So Far
15 - 0. Just 2 games left. Right now we have IND saved for next week who should be the biggest favorite on the week. Just have to sweat this one out first.
For those of you who have already won, congrats!. For those of you still battling, good luck!
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Rest of Season Outlook
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Week	Team	Opp	P(Win)
1	BUF	NYJ	100%
2	TB	CAR	100%
3	CLE	WSH	100%
4	LAR	NYG	100%
5	NO	LAC	100%
6	MIA	NYJ	100%
7	LAC	JAX	100%
8	KC	NYJ	100%
9	NE	NYJ	100%
10	GB	JAX	100%
11	PIT	@JAX	100%
12	NYG	@CIN	100%
13	MIN	JAX	100%
14	SEA	NYJ	100%
15	BAL	JAX	100%
16	HOU	CIN	77%
17	IND	JAX	89%

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Nerdy Math Stuff
P(Win Out) = 68.6% (+7.5pp)
E(Wins) = 16.66 (+0.11)
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Methodology
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
Download
Mediafire
I've tried to take into account every rule-set possible, but if you have a funky league rule that the workbook doesn't seem to work for let me know and I'll see if I can add the feature.

Happy Wild Card Week, /NFL! I hope everyone had a great 2020 playing along and continue with us into the 2021 postseason. We're in playoff territory now, with Wild Card weekend coming up. For the regular season, Week 17 gave me a 12-4 result, bringing me to 166-90 out of 256 games (64.84% correct). I would love to hear everyone else's final results if you all want to post them.

Saturday, January 9th

Matchup	Time/Network	Winner	Comments
Colts @ Bills	1:05p ET on CBS	Bills	The Bills have a their first home playoff game since 1996, congrats to them. The Colts can cause them some offensive problems with Taylor against a shaky run D. Indy can also force Allen to try and sustain drives instead of getting big pass plays. Allen is playing well and is capable of spreading the ball around, working the middle of the field to WR Beasley and getting help from TE Knox. The Colts also don't have a true shutdown corner for Diggs. It's easier to expect Allen over Rivers to make the clutch throws to win a game this season.
Rams @ Seahawks	4:40p ET on FOX	Seahawks	The Rams have it tough this week. They're in a situation right now at QB, going with either a banged-up Goff or a guy who only has one career start under his belt (Wolford). On one hand, you could say it would be smarter to start Goff if he's healthy enough to play, but Goff is coming off thumb surgery and I would definitely have to rank the thumb as the most important finger for a QB. Although Wolford had a solid debut in Week 17, he only led the Rams to nine points. The Rams are playing a Seahawks team that has never lost a home playoff game under Carroll and are expected to have their starting O-line on the field.
Buccaneers @ Washington	8:15p ET on NBC	Buccaneers	The Bucs hope to have Evans healthy to help red-hot Brady along with Godwin, Brown, Gronk and the running game. As well as Brady is playing, this isn't the greatest spot for his pass protection against Young and Washington's front four. The Bucs' defense will contain the run, but Smith has three dangerous receiving weapons in McLaurin, Thomas and McKissic to have success moving the ball on short-to-intermediate throws. Ultimately, Tampa Bay wins comfortably as expected, but Washington works the number and keeps it to a touchdown loss with inspired play for Rivera.

Sunday, January 10th

Matchup	Time/Network	Winner	Comments
Ravens @ Titans	1:05p ET on ESPN/ABC	Ravens	Toss up pick for me. Jackson is still looking for his first playoff win after two home losses. He's relaxed and revved up as a passer, and he keeps running at a high level, sparked by Dobbins sharing the backfield with him. Look for the Ravens to get aggressive passing with him to build a lead, and limit Henry from being a consistent gateway to Tannehill's play-action downfield passing. The Ravens and Titans are playing similar offensive games at the moment, but the Titans' defensive woes catch up to them here.
Bears @ Saints	4:40p ET on CBS/Nickelodeon/Amazon Prime	Saints	The Saints are the biggest favorites of WC Weekend with a double-digit projected lead over the Bears. They have owned this matchup rather easily the past two seasons, with both games being played in Chicago. The Saints will have a rested backfield with Kamara and Murray not playing in Week 17, and they will pound away often at the Bears with them. The Saints won't sleep against another NFC North visitor like they did against the Vikings. NOLA can contain the running of Montgomery and put the game in the hands of Trubisky, which won't end well against the Saints' pressure on the road. Food for thought; Brees, Kamara, and Thomas were on the field together for only two games last season. This will be the first time since September the Saints will be at fully power offensively.
Browns @ Steelers	8:15p ET on NBC	Steelers	The Browns got their needed win over the Steelers in Cleveland in Week 17 to make the playoffs and force this rematch, but it took everything from them defensively and offensively to survive against a resting team not starting Big Ben. Pittsburgh will show their stouter run D and that will set them up to put consistent pressure on Baker, who doesn't respond well when throwing at a high volume with guys in his face. Big Ben will go to work on a Browns' secondary that has plenty of coverage holes away from Ward. Losing Vernon up front to flank Garrett also hurts. The Steelers ended up making a wise decision to not show the Browns much in way of a real game plan. The Steelers' defense reasserts itself with more offensive help than usual to win comfortable against a COVID-depleted Browns team.

Those are my predictions, let's hear yours. Keep it civil and fun. Best of luck!
Update: 4-2, on to the Divisional Round.
Divisional Round based off current predictions.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1) vs Seattle Seahawks(7-3)

Another week has passed and the Eagles notched another in the loss column, the saving grace now is after the Football Team won on Thanksgiving the Eagles are no longer kings of shit mountain. That title rests with Washington, though it could end up in the hands of the Giants by the team the Eagles kickoff on Monday night. Pathetically they could take that title back with a win over the Seahawks, though that appears to be unlikely. The Seahawks pack a potent offense led by All-Pro QB Russel Wilson who has made Jim Schwartz is bitch the past 4 years. What this Eagles team has in talent it completely lacks in discipline, heart and accountability which rests entirely on this coaching staff which repeatedly fails to get this team motivated and put them in the best position to win football games. Seattle has one of the worst defenses in the league especially against the pass, however I doubt Doug Pederson will come up with a game plan to exploit it, especially with Carson Wentz struggling to find any rhythm this season and leading the league in all the wrong categories. Both the coach and the QB will need to find some of that magic from the 2017 season if they have any hope of beating this tough Seahawks team Monday night.

General Information
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Score Prediction Contest

Date
Monday, November 30th, 2020

Game Time	Game Location
8:15 PM - Eastern	Lincoln Financial Field
7:15 PM - Central	1020 Pattison Ave
6:15 PM - Mountain	Philadelphia, PA 19148
5:15 PM - Pacific	Wikipedia - Map

Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 64°F
Feels Like: 64°F
Forecast: Possible Light Rain. Rain throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 56%
Cloud Coverage: 97%
Wind: South 13 MPH

Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Seattle -5.5
OveUnder: 49
Record VS. Spread: Eagles 3-7, Seahawks 6-4

Where to Watch on TV
ESPN will broadcast Monday’s game to a national audience. Steve Levy will handle play-by-play duties and Brian Griese will provide analysis.
Week 12 TV Map

Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming

Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	WIP-FM	94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA	WCTO-FM	96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey	WENJ-FM	97.3 FM
Levittown, PA	WBCB-AM	1490 AM
Northumberland, PA	WEGH-FM	107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA	WPPA-AM	1360 AM
Reading, PA	WEEU-AM	830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA	WEJL-FM	96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WEJL-AM	630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WBAX-AM	1240 AM
Williamsport, PA	WBZD-FM	93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE	WDEL-FM/AM	101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA	WSOX-FM	96.1 FM

Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	LA MEGA	105.7 FM
Allentown, PA	WSAN	1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ	WIBG	1020 AM; 101.3 FM

Seahawks Radio
Seahawks Radio Network Steve Raible returns for his 38th season in the radio booth, his 15th as the play-by-play announcer and “Voice of the Seahawks” after 22 seasons as the Seahawks analyst. Former Seahawks LB Dave Wyman will provide color commentary.

National Radio
Westwood One will broadcast the game to a national audience with Kevin Harlan on play-by-play and Ron Jaworski providing analysis.

Satellite Radio

Station	Eagles Channel	Seahawks Channel
Sirius Radio	SIRI 83	SIRI 81
XM Radio	XM 225	XM 226
Sirius XM Radio	SXM 225 4	SXM 226

Eagles Social Media	Seahawks Social Media
Website	Website
Facebook	Facebook
Twitter	Twitter
Instagram	Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles	Snapchat: Seahawks

NFC East Standings

NFC EAST	Record	PCT	Home	Road	Div	Conf	PF	PA	Net Pts	Streak
Football Team	4-7	.364	3-3	1-4	3-2	3-5	241	243	-2	1W
Eagles	3-6-1	.350	2-2-1	1-4	2-2	3-3	220	254	-34	2L
Giants	3-7	.300	2-3	1-4	3-2	3-6	195	236	-41	2W
Cowboys	3-8	.273	2-4	1-4	1-3	3-6	251	359	-108	1L

Series Information
The Seattle Seahawks lead the Philadelphia Eagles (11-7)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
December 12th, 1976 at Veteran's Stadium Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia Eagles 27 - Seattle Seahawks 10
Points Leader
Seattle Seahawks lead the Philadelphia Eagles (367-327)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 0-4 against the Seahawks
Pete Carroll: 6-1 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Pete Carroll: Carroll leads 4-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Seahawks: 0-4
Russell Wilson: Against Eagles: 5-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Russell Wilson: Wilson leads 4-0
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Seahawks lead the Eagles: 5-0
Record @ CenturyLink Field: Seahawks lead 3-2

Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 11 - Seahawks No. 7
Record
Eagles: 3-6-1
Seahawks: 7-3
Last Meeting
Sunday, Nov 24th, 2019
Seahawks 17 – Eagles 9
The Eagles season ended with their first loss at home since Week 12 of the regular season, which was, coincidentally, also a 17–9 home loss to the Seahawks. They failed to score a touchdown for the first time since Week 17 of the 2017 season. Carson Wentz left the game in the first quarter with a concussion following a dirty hit by Jadeveon Clowney, where he led with the crown of his helmet into the back of Carson Wentz’s head when he was already going to the ground. No penalty was called on the play, and Wentz was later ruled out for the game. This was the Eagles' third straight home Wild Card playoff loss.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap

Last 10 Meetings

Date	Winner	Loser	Score
01/05/20	Seahawks	Eagles	17-9
11/24/19	Seahawks	Eagles	17-9
12/3/17	Seahawks	Eagles	24-10
11/20/16	Seahawks	Eagles	26-15
12/07/14	Seahawks	Eagles	24-14
12/01/11	Seahawks	Eagles	31-14
11/02/08	Eagles	Seahawks	26-7
12/02/07	Seahawks	Eagles	28-24
12/05/05	Seahawks	Eagles	42-0
12/08/02	Eagles	Seahawks	27-20
09/23/01	Eagles	Seahawks	27-3

Injury Reports	Depth Charts
Eagles	Eagles
Seahawks	Seahawks

2012 “Expert” Picks
Week 12 - "Expert" Picks

2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Seahawks Season Stats

2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)

Passing

Name	CMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
Wentz	220	377	58.4%	2326	14	14	73.3
Wilson	256	362	70.7%	2986	30	10	111.5

Rushing

Name	ATT	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Sanders	102	585	83.6	5.7	3
Wilson	55	367	36.7	4.7	1

Receiving

Name	REC	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Fulgham	31	451	64.4	14.5	4
Metcalf	48	862	86.2	18.0	9

Sacks

Name	Sacks	Team Total
Graham	7.0	34
Adams	5.5	25

Tackles

Name	Total	Solo	Assist	Sacks
Singleton	60	37	23	1.0
Wagner	96	56	40	3.0

Interceptions

Name	Ints	Team Total
Singleton/McLeod/Mills	1	3
Diggs/Neal/Griffin	2	10

Punting

Name	ATT	YDS	LONG	AVG	NET	IN 20	TB	BP
Johnston	45	2198	66	48.6	42.3	15	4	0
Dickson	37	1835	67	49.6	44.1	19	4	0

Kicking

Name	ATT	MADE	%	LONG	PAT
Elliot	14	10	71.4%	54	14/14
Myers	12	12	100%	61	36/38

Kick Returns

Name	ATT	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Scott	12	227	18.9	25	0
Homer	12	291	24.3	44	0

Punt Returns

Name	RET	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD	FC
Ward	13	88	6.8	22	0	13
Moore	8	91	11.4	20	0	12

League Rankings 2020

Offense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Seahawks Stat	Seahawks Rank
Total Offense	330.1	26th	400.0	4th
Rush Offense	121.1	12th	121.3	10th(t)
Pass Offense	209.0	28th	278.7	5th
Points Per Game	22.0	24th	31.8	2nd
3rd-Down Offense	37.5%	28th(t)	41.2%	18th
4th-Down Offense	36.8%	27th(t)	77.8%	3rd(t)
Red Zone Offense (TD%)	63.3%	13th	77.8%	2nd

Defense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Seahawks Stat	Seahawks Rank
Total Defence	342.7	10th	434.9	32nd
Rush Defence	133.4	25th	91.2	4th
Pass Defence	209.3	6th	343.7	32nd
Points Per Game	25.4	16th	28.7	28th
3rd-Down Defence	38.1%	6th	49.6%	30th
4th-Down Defence	41.7%	5th(t)	56.3%	18th
Red Zone Defence(TD%)	65.6%	T-19th	70.0%	28th

Team

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Seahawks Stat	Seahawks Rank
Turnover Diff.	-9	30th	+1	12th(t)
Penalty Per Game	6.1	21st(t)	5.3	6th(t)
Penalty Yards Per Game	48.2	14th	39.2	4th

Connections
Eagles HC Doug Pederson was born in Bellingham, WA, and grew up in Ferndale, WA. Pederson recently admitted that he "Grew up a Seahawks Fan" and used to attend Seahawks games at The Kingdome.
Eagles LBs coach Ken Flajole is from Seattle and previously coached the Seahawks’ DBs (1999, 2001-02) and LBs (2000).
Eagles Safeties coach Tim Hauck played for the Seahawks in 1997.
Seahawks Northeast Area Scout Todd Brunner worked for the Eagles for four seasons (1994-97) as an area scout covering the Northeast. He joined the Eagles as a scouting intern in 1992 and worked as a scouting assistant in 1993.

2020 Pro Bowlers

Eagles	Seahawks
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)	QB Russel Wilson (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)	MLB Bobby Wagner (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)

General
Referee: Brad Allen
Philadelphia hosts Seattle for the first time since the 2019 NFC Wild Card playoff game. The Eagles are aiming for their third con-secutive win at Lincoln Financial Field after defeating N.Y. Giants (W, 22-21) and Dallas (W, 23-9) during Weeks 7-8.
Miles Sanders leads the NFL with 5.7 yards per rushing attempt (min. 100 attempts). His 83.6 rushing yards per game rank 4th in the NFL, trailing only Dalvin Cook (118.8), Derrick Henry (107.9) and Nick Chubb (95.8) in that category.
Jason Kelce has started 99 consectuive regular-season games, which is the longest active streak among NFL centers as well as the longest by an Eagles center since the 1970 merger (previously 95 by Guy Morriss from 1977-83). The last NFL center with 100 consecutive starts was Chris Myers from 2007-14 (123).
Brandon Graham leads the Eagles defense with 7.0 sacks, which ranks 9th among NFL players. Graham (11 TFLs) joins T.J. Watt (9.0, sacks, 14 TFLs) and Za’Darius Smith (8.0 sacks, 10 TFLs) as the only NFL players with 7.0+ sacks and 10+ TFLs this season.

Draft Picks

Eagles	Seahawks
WR Jalen Raegor	LB Jordyn Brooks
QB Jalen Hurts	DE Darrell Taylor
LB Davion Taylor	OG Damien Lewis
S K’Von Wallace	TE Colby Parkinson
OT Jack Driscoll	RB Deejay Dallas
WR John Hightower	DE Alton Robinson
LB Shaun Bradley	WR Freddie Swan
WR Quez Watkins	TE/WR Stephen Sullivan
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill

Notable Off-season Additions

Eagles	Seahawks
S Will Parks	S Jamal Adams
DT Javon Hargrave	OT Cedric Ogbuehi
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman	RB Carlos Hyde
CB Darius Slay	RT Brandon Shell
	DE Carlos Dunlap
	DE Benson Mayowa
	WR Phillip Dorsett
	DT Bruce Irvin
	TE Greg Olsen
	CB Quinton Dunbar

Notable Off-season Departures

Eagles	Seahawks
S Malcom Jenkins	S Bradley McDonald
CB Ronald Darby	DE Jadaveon Clowney
RB Jordan Howard	OT George Fant
WR Nelson Agholor	DL Quiton Jefferson
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai	DL Al Woods
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill	OL Germain Ifedi
RB Darren Sproles	DE Ziggy Ansah
DT Timmy Jernigan	LB Mychal Kendricks
LB Nigel Bradham

Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (109) needs 1 passing TDs to take sole possession of 4th on the Eagles all-time passing yards list moving ahead of QB Norm Snead.
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (52.5) needs 2 sacks to move up to 5th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (29) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Jerome Brown

Stats to Know
Stat to Know: Bird is the Word
The average Bald Eagle's wingspan is considerably more than an Osprey's. The weight disparity between the two is even more pronounced, the male Bald Eagle doubling its counterpart's weight. So whereas Bald Eagles are known to harass Osprey nests and even steal Ospreys' food directly from them, this Philadelphia Eagles team is anything but average and is an embarrassment in the turnover department, currently third-to-last in turnover margin at -9, while the Seahawks are middle-of-the-pack at +1. A Bald Eagle is expected to be large, strong, agile, pesky, and majestic. The 2020 Philadelphia Eagles field 2 Cornerbacks 5'9 and under, they field undersized Linebackers and Safeties, and don't have a bruising Running Back to feature. They have been incapable of imposing their will on Offense or Defense. The only consistency shown in 2020 is in just how bad the team is, while still on top of the division. Some mornings I stare into the foggy mirror, with Lionel Richie's "Hello" playing on my Google speaker, and wonder what we've done to deserve this. Sad Eagles

Matchups to Watch
Russel Wilson vs. the Eagles Run Defense
This Eagles team has been woefully pathetic against the run this season, but even more so against opposing QBs who are not afraid to take off. Of the top 5 rushing performances against the Eagles defense this season 3 of them are QBs (Lamar Jackson and Daniel Jones 2x). Russell Wilson may turn 32 Sunday, but he is still a threat with his legs as he currently leads the Seahawks in rushing yards and is on pace for his second biggest rushing season in his career. Jim Schwartz has had zero answer the past 4 years against Russel Wilson and I don’t expect that to magically change on Monday. Schwartz best bet may be to spy Wilson with Rookie Davion Taylor, who has the athletic ability to keep up with Wilson, however Schwartz has failed to used spies on Wilson in the past, so if he makes a change in how it operates it will be a large evolution in his character which doesn’t seem realistic. I expect much of the same with Schwartz against Wilson on Monday, base Nickel defense with Cover-1 man and the corners playing 10 yards off to give easy outlets to Wilson.
A Moveable Object vs a Stoppable Force
If Philly wants to have any chance to win on Monday they are going to need to score points on the offensive side of the football, something they have failed to do regularly this season. Carson Wentz has been one of if not the worst QB in the NFL this season, at least the worst who hasn’t been benched yet. He has been a turn over machine and has been sacked the most in the NFL. But the offensive woes don’t lay solely at his feet, Doug Pederson has done Wentz no favors. Despite Wentz’s struggles Pederson has continued to lead on the QB, despite having one of the best running backs in the league who is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has big play potential in Miles Sanders. It isn’t just that Pederson is abandoning the run, he is also calling a bland predictable offense which has failed to put his players in the best position to succeed. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks have had issues stopping anyone this season, especially through the air where they rank dead last. They have given up an average of 343.7 yards per game. In recent weeks, they’ve been better in this area. They have given up over 300 passing yards just once in the last four games. If the Eagles have any shot to win Sunday, they need to win this matchup.
Carlos Dunlap vs Jordan Mailata
After Jason Peters gave up 3 sacks, 3 QB hits and 7 pressures in just 47 snaps before leaving the last game with an injury, he's thankfully moving to right guard somewhere he should have been after returning from the IR. This means Mailata will be back at LT where he was playing well before being benched for Peters return. He will face off against Carlos Dunlap who has 3 sacks in 3 games since joining the Seahawks. This is going to be the second time the Eagles faced Dunlap who in Week 3, had 4 pressures, 9 tackles, a QB hit, a TFL and a batted pass when facing Peters. If Mailata can play the way he was before he was wrongly benched by this inept coaching staff. Suring up Wentz’s backside should give him a little more confidence, something he has woefully lacked this season. This should be a good matchup against the young Mailata and the ageless vet in Dunlap.

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Well that was easy. Not only was a 16 point line not enough for the Seahawks, it wasn't even half of the final difference. Why can't all picks work out that nicely? Unfortunately as has become typical this season we didn't get any of the other upsets we needed to reduce the field. This week should see a larger spread of picks so hopefully we can win ours and see some other upsets around the leage.
​
I don't care about stupid math stuff, just give me the team to pick
Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore has the easiest possible schedule remaining with games against Jacksonville, NYG, and \@Cincinnati. Saving them could certainly make sense, but the math says you are slightly better off taking them this week.
Going with TEN this week gives win probabilities of 83%, 82%, 88% for the last three weeks, while BAL gives you 88%, 79%, 88%. Going with TEN will even out the odds a little bit more, having you lower this week, but better odds next week if HOU scares you after their pathetic outing last week.
​

Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	BAL	88%	61.1%	16.55
2	TEN	83%	59.8%	16.53
3	ARI	73%	52.6%	16.43
4	IND	74%	51.8%	16.42

Sunday Update
​

Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	BAL	88%	60.9%	16.55
2	TEN	81%	58.4%	16.51
3	ARI	73%	52.6%	16.43
4	IND	74%	51.8%	16.42

No real change from Wednesday. TEN's spread dropped slightly for this week. I'm going BAL, but I would understand if people preferred to go TEN to improve their chances next week.
​
​
Season so far
14-0. Well this is definitely the farthest I've ever made it undefeated. We have 3 more games to get through. All of which should be favored by at least a touchdown. Next weeks matchup of HOU vs CIN is the largest hurdle left. Hopefully everyone here has followed my picks and are in the same great position right now.
​
Rest of Season Outlook
We shouldn't expect the future teams picked to change at all at this point, the percentages will just bounce around a little bit from here on out.
​

Week	Team	Opp	P(Win)
1	BUF	NYJ	100%
2	TB	CAR	100%
3	CLE	WSH	100%
4	LAR	NYG	100%
5	NO	LAC	100%
6	MIA	NYJ	100%
7	LAC	JAX	100%
8	KC	NYJ	100%
9	NE	NYJ	100%
10	GB	JAX	100%
11	PIT	@JAX	100%
12	NYG	@CIN	100%
13	MIN	JAX	100%
14	SEA	NYJ	100%
15	BAL	JAX	88%
16	HOU	CIN	79%
17	IND	JAX	88%

​
Nerdy math stuff
P(Win Out) = 61.1% (+5.7pp) -- We will win out about 3 in every 5 times from here.
E(Wins) = 16.55 (+0.10)
These values didn't increase very much this week since last weeks matchup was such a sure thing.
Methodology
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
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I've tried to take into account every rule-set possible, but if you have a funky league rule that the workbook doesn't seem to work for let me know and I'll see if I can add the feature.