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Week 17 - Panthers @ Falcons - Pregame Report

GAME INFORMATION

ESPN GAME CENTER
TEAM Record
CAROLINA PANTHERS 11-4, 9-6-0 ATS
ATLANTA FALCONS 9-6, 6-9-0 ATS
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Spread Consensus: ATLANTA BY 3.5
OveUnder: 44.5
GAME TIME AND LOCATION:
Optimus Prime's Butthole - 4:25 PM December 31, 2017
WEATHER FORECAST: Forecast: Mostly sunny skies. High near 40F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. But let's be honest...they're a bunch of babies and will probably have the butthole closed.
Stadium Type: Dome
NFL Broadcast Map - Red
Broadcast Station FOX
Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy "I bet he'd like that one back" Aikman
Where to Watch
NFL Red Zone - Provider Participation Required
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Broadcast Information
Need A Ticket?
/PANTHERS TICKET THREAD
StubHub
Ticketmaster
SeatGeek
Head Official Bill Vinovich
CAROLINA WILL BE WEARING BLACK JERSEYS.

INJURY REPORT

Panthers Injuries
Player Position Injury Wed Thurs Fri Gameday Status
Mike Adams S Rest DNP FP FP -
Mario Addison DE Hip LP FP FP -
Kurt Coleman S Ankle DNP LP LP Questionable
Devin Funchess WR Shoulder LP FP - -
LaDarius Gunter CB Illness - - DNP Questionable
Ryan Kalil C Shoulder LP FP FP -
Cam Newton QB Shoulder LP LP FP -
Greg Olsen TE Foot FP FP FP -
Spencer Paysinger LB Ankle LP FP FP -
Julius Peppers DE Rest DNP DNP FP -
Russell Shepard WR Shoulder LP FP FP -
Jonathan Stewart RB Rest DNP FP FP -
Shaq Thompson LB Foot DNP FP FP -
Trai Turner G Concussion LP LP LP OUT
Falcons Injuries
Player Position Injury Wed Thurs Fri Gameday Status
Julio Jones WR Ankle/Thumb DNP LP LP -
Andy Levitre G Triceps LP LP LP -
Alex Mack C Calf LP DNP DNP Questionable
Wes Schweitzer G Groin LP LP LP -
Levine Tollolo TE Knee DNP DNP DNP OUT

PICKS

All 2017 expert NFL Picks compared for accuracy. A free, advert-click funded service tracking every analyst at ESPN, Bleacher Report, CBS, FOX, Yahoo!, ProFootballFocus, USA Today, Accuscore, NFL Network, NFL.com, SI.com and more – sorted by season win percentage.
Click HERE for breakdown of all expert picks
CAROLINA PANTHERS 37%
ATLANTA FALCONS 63%

TOP TEN EXPERT PICKS

Rank Expert Network Season Record % Pick
1 Jeff Ratcliffe 170-70 70%
2 Jamey Eisenberg 169-70 70%
3 KC Joyner 168-72 70% ?
4 Neil Greenberg 155-67 69%
5 Kevin Sherrington 167-73 69%
6 Mike Clay 165-75 68%
7 Patrick Schmidt 165-75 68%
8 PFF Analytics 165-75 68%
9 Chris Burke 164-76 68% ?
10 Nate Davis 164-76 68%

PROJECT FIVETHIRTYEIGHT - 2017 TEAM PREDICTIONS

CAROLINA PANTHERS 39%
ATLANTA FALCONS 61%
Click HERE for complete breakdown of Project FiveThirtyEight predictions for the 2017 season)

Season Prediction

ELO Rating One Week Change Make Playoffs Win Division 1st Round Bye Win Super Bowl
1604 + 5 10% <1% 2%
1618 - 19 70% - - 2%

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Law Firm
It's beginning to feel a lot like 2015. The Panthers offense is (for the most part) finding ways to score points despite mounting injuries to the WR corps. KB, again, is gone and replaced by Funchess. Behind FunFun we have "The Law Firm of Shepard, Clay, Bersin & Frazier." Those four combine for 28 receptions, 364yds and 1 TD (the majority coming from Shepard). Funchess alone has more than double each of those stats. In the absence of Samuel and Byrd, these four will have to provide reliable targets for Cam this week against the Falcons. Clay and Shepard have shown flashes, but also both have issues with drops a la Philly Brown in 2015. Bersin is, as usual, a reliable option and tough kid but not someone to set the field on fire. Frazier is an unknown.
Cam and Atlanta
Every time Cam returns to his hometown he looks to put on a show. This time, in a new venue. In his weekly presser he said, “I guess it’s time to create more lasting memories.” He blew out USC in the Georgia dome en route to an SEC title in college. He earned his first NFCS title there in 2013 and clinched his second there the following year. The next year the Falcons ruined the Panthers regular season there. Could Cam's first "lasting memory" in the Megatron Butthole be of a dynamic victory setting the stage for another NFCS title (with some help from TB)? Or could it be a disappointing loss to cap off a roller coaster regular season? After watching thousands of Falcons fans come out of the woodwork last year you know Newton would love nothing more than to end their season Sunday in their house and sweep the team that walked all over the Panthers in 2016. You know those games where Cam just seems to be on a different plane from the rest of the players? Expect this to be one of those games.
The Return of the Vets
This week the Panthers defense gets back two great assets. WPMOTY, All-Pro LB Thomas Davis returns from his one-game suspension for a hit on the Packers Davante Adams. Davis' impact on the defense cannot be overstated. With him back and Shaq healthy, the pair plus Luke free up the DBs to blitz occasionally or play more aggressively knowing that our 3 LBs can cover the space most teams would need four players to fill. The Panthers also get back fellow Bulldog, Charles Johnson, back from a four game suspension for a positive PED test. While stellar play from Pep and Addison have covered CJ's absence well, it will still be nice to get him back in the rotation. One can only assume that the 4 weeks off have helped him cope with the nagging back issues that likely led to his using of a banned substance. CJ has spent the past 4 weeks working out in Miami and according to the team he returned in good shape and high spirits. Let's hope that translates to a bad day for Matt Ryan.

MATCHUP HISTORY

All Time Record: 18-27 (Falcons lead)
Largest Victory: 38-0 (12/13/15)
Current Streak: 1W
  • Since Cam came to Carolina, the Panthers are 6-7 against the Falcons

HEAD TO HEAD

CAROLINA OFFENSE VS. ATLANTA DEFENSE
Points/Game 23.5 (#11) 20.3 (#11) Opp Points/Game
Yards/Game 328.7 (#17) 323.1 (#10) Opp Yards/Game
Points/Play 0.365 (#11) 0.327 (#14) Opp Points/Play
Yards/Play 5.1 (#19) 5.2 (#14) Opp Yards/Play
3D Conversion % 42.51% (#6) 38.67% (#17) Opp 3D Conv %
4D Conversion % 40.00% (#21) 66.67% (#29) Opp 4D Conv %
RZ Scoring % (TD) 54.00% (#17) 45.65% (#6) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)
TDs/Game 2.6 (#9) 2.1 (#6) Opp TDs/Game
ATLANTA OFFENSE VS. CAROLINA DEFENSE
Points/Game 22.1 (#15) 20.3 (#11) Opp Points/Game
Yards/Game 364.4 (#9) 313.5 (#7) Opp Yards/Game
Points/Play 0.363 (#13) 0.346 (#16) Opp Points/Play
Yards/Play 6.0 (#4) 5.3 (#18) Opp Yards/Play
3D Conversion % 45.30% (#1) 37.89% (#14) Opp 3D Conv %
4D Conversion % 30.77% (#27) 35.00% (#9) Opp 4D Conv %
RZ Scoring % (TD) 53.06% (#20) 51.28% (#13) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)
TDs/Game 2.3 (#18) 2.2 (#10) Opp TDs/Game

BY THE NUMBERS

2003
Panthers special teams have seemingly come alive this year, with Kaelin Clay having returned a punt for a touchdown and Damiere Byrd having the Panthers' first kickoff return touchdown since Kealoha Pilares in 2011. But the Panthers haven't had both a kickoff return TD and a punt return TD in the same season since 2003. That year, Steve Smith took a punt to the house for the fourth time in his career, and Rod "He Hate Me" Smart scored the only touchdown of his NFL career. For the record, the Pilares touchdown was the only kick return TD the Panthers had between Smart in 2003 and Byrd in 2017.
27
The Panthers' depth at receiver has suddenly become the team's biggest panic point going into the playoffs. Not counting Devin Funchess, the other four receivers on the Panthers' roster have combined for 27 receptions this season. Russell Shepard has 17, Brenton Bersin has 6, Kaelin Clay has 4, and Mose Frazier has 0. Kelvin Benjamin still ranks third on the team with 32 receptions.
128
Cam Newton may have had a subpar year when it comes to passing the ball, but he's been a workhorse as per usual in the running game. Cam currently has 128 rushing attempts on the season, and it's almost certain he'll break his personal record of 132 set in 2015. That total ranks second overall for QBs, behind only former Chicago Bear Bobby Douglass's 141, which happened in a 14-game season! But Cam fills out the rest of the top five: 132 in 2015, 128 this year, 127 in 2012, and 126 in 2011.
96.5%
He got a lot of grief during the preseason, and I was in the camp that we should have kept Butker and kicked Gano. But barring a meltdown against the Falcons, Graham Gano will win the kicking crown this year. His field goal percentage of 96.5% (28 makes on 29 attempts) is tops in the NFL. For comparison, Butker is 36 of 40--90%. Gano's number comes with some caveats. His longest make is from 48 yards, and his only miss is from 55 (against Detroit). Plus, his percentage on PATs (33 for 36, 91.7%) is actually WORSE than his FG%! What a weird year.
<1%
The FiveThirtyEight prediction machine is more useful for playing out scenarios than actually predicting outcomes. Regardless, it rates the Panthers chances of getting a first-round bye as less than one percent! Here's what has to happen: the Panthers need to defeat the Falcons and have the Saints lose to the Bucs in order to win the NFC South. That's step one. Then, the Panthers need two other results to go their way: the Rams must lose to the 49ers and the Vikings must lose to the Bears. That ties the Panthers and Vikes at 12-4, and the Panthers get the 2-seed (and a much-needed bye week) by virtue of their head-to-head win. So you're saying there's a chance...

PANTHERS POWER RANKINGS

Outlet Rank Last Week Weekly Change Notes
7 8 ↑ 1 There are no easy games in the NFL, and while it’s not ideal that the Panthers struggled with the Buccaneers on Sunday, they got the win in the final minute. Getting a tough test like that is not the worst thing for the Panthers as they head into the playoffs.
7 8 ↑ 1 Cam Newton has had some of the best success of his career running this year, which has helped Carolina to 11 wins. Newton currently leads the team in rushing and has set a career high in yards on designed rushing plays.
7 8 ↑ 1 Recap: The Panthers were outplayed by the visiting Buccaneers for the most part but still somehow managed to rally for a victory and earn an invitation to the playoffs. Tampa Bay outgained Ron Rivera’s club in total yards by a combined 392-255 count. Cam Newton was sacked twice and picked off once and threw for only 160 yards in the game. Carolina’s celebrated defense allowed Bucs’ quarterback Jameis Winston to throw for 367 yards and one touchdown. But Rivera’s pass rush sacked him three times and caused him to lose all three of his fumbles. Newton orchestrated a late touchdown drive and the Panthers survived. Next Week: It’s an opportunity to sweep the rival Falcons for the first time since 2013. Rivera’s club came away with a 20-17 win in early Novembers (Week 9) and snapped a three-game losing streak to the current defending NFC champions. Carolina owns a 6-4 record in the last 10 meetings in this series. Playoff Picture: The Panthers are back in the postseason for the fourth time in five years. And if the Saints somehow stumble at Tampa and Rivera’s team can defeat the Falcons at Atlanta next Sunday, Newton and company are NFC South champions.
3 2 ↓ 1 The Panthers probably are headed to a wild-card berth. But they would be a very good in that role and fully capable of running the table to reach the Super Bowl.
6 6 - Is Julius Peppers really 37 years old? With his 11th sack of season Sunday and two fumble recoveries, he dominated Father Time once again.
6 6 - The Panthers did a great job winning a game in which they didn't play well. Hopefully, it serves as a learning experience. All of the concerns I've had about Carolina were prevalent on Sunday. There was too much pressure on Cam Newton, and he doesn't have the weapons at receiver to help him out when he's under pressure. Tight end Greg Olsen is terrific, and running back Christian McCaffrey is a nice outlet, but there aren't any weapons on the outside who can stretch the field and back the defense off the line of scrimmage. Newton was amazing on Carolina's last scoring drive, but he cannot be asked to do everything on his own so often. Defensively, the Panthers gave up too many big plays in the pass game. This has been a concern all year. The Panthers defense is good, especially up front, but the secondary isn't built to contain elite passing offenses. That could be a major issue heading into the postseason.
7 8 Scary win for the Panthers, who almost sleepwalked their way into losing to the Bucs -- and letting an opportunity to win the NFC South slip away -- on their home field. Case in point: With the Panthers down four points, a furious Julius Peppers pass rush induced a holding call on Tampa Bay in the Bucs' end zone, which would have meant two points and possession to Carolina. But, but, Star Lotulelei shoved a guy as the play was ending, so offsetting penalties meant the safety didn't count. Oy. Then Jameis Winston converted on third-and-a-mile. Just when you thought it wasn't the Panthers' day, Tampa kicker Patrick Murray missed another long-range kick (like last week). Cam Newton and the other 10 guys on Carolina's offense put together a drive to win the game, fumble and all. That's football.
5 5 - That wasn't a great effort against Tampa Bay, but they rallied to earn a playoff spot. They can still win the division if they beat Atlanta and the Saints lose.

NFL STANDINGS

Team Overall Record Division Division Record Conf Record PF PA Streak
(xyz) Eagles 13-2 NFC East 5-0 10-1 457 289 W3
(xyz) Patriots 12-3 AFC East 4-1 9-2 432 290 W2
(xy) Vikings 12-3 NFC North 4-1 9-2 359 242 W2
(xyz) Steelers 12-3 AFC North 5-0 9-2 378 284 W1
xy Rams 11-4 NFC West 4-1 7-4 465 295 W2
y Saints 11-4 NFC South 4-1 8-3 424 295 W2
y Panthers 11-4 NFC South 3-2 7-4 353 305 W3
(xy) Jaguars 10-5 AFC South 4-1 9-2 407 253 L1
xy Chiefs 9-6 AFC North 4-1 7-4 388 315 W3
Ravens 9-6 NFC East 3-2 7-4 368 272 W2
Falcons 9-6 NFC South 3-2 8-3 331 305 L1
Seahawks 9-6 NFC West 4-1 7-4 342 306 W1
Titans 8-7 AFC South 4-1 7-4 319 346 L3
Chargers 8-7 AFC West 2-3 5-6 325 262 W1
Bills 8-7 AFC East 2-3 6-5 280 343 L1
Lions 8-7 NFC North 4-1 7-4 375 365 L1
Cowboys 8-7 NFC East 4-1 6-5 348 332 L1
Packers 7-8 NFC North 2-3 5-6 309 349 L2
Redskins 7-8 NFC East 1-4 5-6 332 370 W2
Cardinals 7-8 NFC West 2-3 4-7 269 337 W1
Dolphins 6-9 AFC East 2-3 5-6 265 371 L2
Bengals 6-9 AFC North 2-3 5-6 259 322 W1
Raiders 6-9 AFC West 2-3 5-6 291 343 L3
Broncos 5-10 AFC West 2-3 4-7 265 355 L1
49ers 5-10 NFC West 0-5 2-9 297 370 W4
Jets 5-10 AFC East 2-3 5-6 292 356 L3
Bears 5-10 NFC North 0-5 1-10 254 297 W1
Texans 4-11 AFC South 1-4 3-8 325 414 L5
Buccs 4-11 NFC South 0-5 2-9 304 358 L5
Colts 3-12 AFC South 1-4 2-9 241 391 L6
Giants 2-13 NFC East 0-5 0-11 228 378 L5
Browns 0-15 AFC North 0-5 0-11 210 382 L15
  • (x) Clinched Division
  • (z) Clinched Bye
  • (y) Clinched Playoff Berth

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Damiere Byrd headed to IR
RR's T-shirt game continues to be awesome
Byrd is the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week (first Panther to win it since Pilares in 2011)
Cam Newton V Julio Jones
Cam Newton in the huddle
The versatility of Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrery
Why Cam Newton is Unstoppable
Luke Kuechly "What makes the NFC great is that everyone has to bring their A-Game every week."
A Look At: Mose Frazier
Ron Rivera's Speech after win over Buccaneers
The Panthers’ Resurgent Rushing Attack Makes Them Playoff Contenders
Everything but Football: Julius Peppers
The Best play from Every Game in 2017
Greg Olsen makes some awesome Crank Calls
submitted by JCoxRocks to panthers [link] [comments]

Week 1 - Panthers @ 49ers - Pregame Report

GAME INFORMATION

ESPN GAME CENTER
TEAM Record Against the Spread
CAROLINA PANTHERS (0-0)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (0-0)
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite: Carolina by 4.5
OveUnder: 47.5
GAME TIME AND LOCATION:
Levi's Stadium - 4:25 PM ET - September 10, 2017
WEATHER FORECAST: Temperature: 92°F Forecast: Sunny Stadium Type: Open Air
NFL Broadcast Map
Broadcast Station FOX
Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Chris Spielman
Where to Watch
NFL Red Zone - Provider Participation Required
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Broadcast Information
Need A Ticket?
StubHub
Ticketmaster
NFL Ticket Exchange
SeatGeek
Head Official Clete Blakeman, the dumb shit that officiated Super Bowl 50
CAROLINA WILL BE WEARING WHITE JERSEYS.

INJURY REPORT

CAROLINA PANTHERS
Name Pos. Injury Status
Cole Luke CB Ankle OUT
Jared Norris LB Knee OUT
Daeshon Hall DE Knee LP
Kyle Love DT Back LP
Cam Newton QB Shoulder FP
Curtis Samuel WR Hamstring FP
Vernon Butler DT Knee LP
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Name Pos. Injury Status
Jimmie Ward FS Hamstring OUT
George Kittle TE Hamstring FP
Aaron Lynch DE Back LP

PICKS

NFL PICK WATCH
All 2017 expert NFL Picks compared for accuracy. A free, advert-click funded service tracking every analyst at ESPN, Bleacher Report, CBS, FOX, Yahoo!, ProFootballFocus, USA Today, Accuscore, NFL Network, NFL.com, SI.com and more – sorted by season win percentage.
CAROLINA PANTHERS 83%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 17%
Click HERE for breakdown of all expert picks
Rank Expert Network Season Record % Pick All Time Record %
1 Josh Katzowitz NFL Pickwatch 0-0 0% 358-174 67%
2 Dave Richard CBS Sports 0-0 0% 352-181 66%
3 Numberfire Numberfire 0-0 0% 349-184 65%
4 Brandon George Dallas Morning News 0-0 0% 347-186 65%
5 Five Thirty Eight Five Thirty Eight 0-0 0% 346-183 65%
6 NFL.com Fan Picks NFL.com 0-0 0% 346-187 64%
7 Teamrankings Team Rankings 0-0 0% 345-188 64%
8 Gordon McGuiness Pro Football Focus 0-0 0% 344-188 64%
9 Jamey Eisenberg CBS Sports 0-0 0% 344-189 64%
10 Expert Concensus NFL Pickwatch 0-0 0% 342-188 64%
PROJECT FIVETHIRTYEIGHT - 2017 TEAM PREDICTIONS
Week 1
CAROLINA PANTHERS 65%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 35%
Click HERE for complete breakdown of Project FiveThirtyEight predictions for the 2017 season
Season
ELO Rating One Week Change Pred Wins Pred Losses Playoffs? Win Division Win Super Bowl
1527 - 8.4 7.6 40% 22% 3%

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Offense

Christian McCaffery
Of course, all eyes will be on the electrifying first round draft pick. CMC looked great in camp and preseason, but now it's time for his first real NFL challenge. How will he fare against a solid LB corps and how will Shula continue to utilize him. If what we've seen so far is the real deal, expect McCaffery to make plays in the running, passing and return games.
Cam Newton
Sorry for two obvious selections, but much of this team's success rest on the surgically-repaired shoulder(s) of Newton. From all reports, he is in the best shape of his life, slimmed down from more than 260lbs to a lean 245lbs. Fueled by last year's failures and equipped with shiny new weapons and a stronger offensive line all signs point to a comeback year. Keep a close eye on Newton early. Will Shula lean more towards runs to rest his shoulder? Is the analyst chatter about jealousy of McCaffery just chatter? Will he have his swagger back?
Curtis Samuel
The Ohio State speedster didn't get much work until the end of preseason due to a nagging hamstring injury, but he says that time helped him learn the playbook. Benjamin and Funchess are the starting WRs but it will be interesting to see how Shula utilizes Samuel and McCaffery to create mismatches. Also be sure to watch for him on kickoffs. Special teams have been rough for Carolina lately. Some of that falls on blocking schemes and effort, but some blame also falls on the returner. Samuel displays a natural talent to find and explode through the seams if the blockers get in place.
Ed Dickson
Not to toot my own horn or anything, but here's a quote from my final roster projection, which accurately predicted neither FB would make the roster: "I've figured it out. The Panthers are going to do the least exciting and most Panthers thing ever. Ed Dickson is our H-back, y'all! Get ready for some checkdowns to everyone's favorite backup tight end! Shulaball is BACK, baby!" That was probably one of the most prescient things of my life. And it means that we will have to watch Dickson very closely to see if he is capable of handling this role. Will he get more snaps lined up as a receiver or blocker, or coming out of the backfield?
Russell Shepard
My man recorded zero catches in four preseason games, and it's not like he was sitting them out. Of course, receivers can't really control how often the ball gets thrown to him (for what it's worth, he had four targets), but you would have liked to see the Panthers' $10 million, 3-year investment pay some dividends, especially with Curtis Samuel out of the lineup for a couple of those games. Who will the Panthers trust in the slot? Samuel, McCaffrey, or Shepard? Will Shepard primarily fill a special teams role or will he see some work with the offense to?

Defense

Daryl Worley
There was a lot of hope placed in Worley this offseason. Would he continue his growth and rise to the level of his counterpart, James Bradberry? Things looked good in camp, but a lackluster preseason tempered that somewhat. Without much depth behind the starting CB2 how will he perform when tasked with covering speedster Marquise Goodwin? The all-or-nothing WR from Buffalo should give Worley a good test.
Mike Adams
Another pick from the secondary. Adams is one of the best safeties in recent memory, but the 36 year old only accumulated 2 tackles across 3 preseason games. The Panthers hope that Adams role at SS will free up Kurt Coleman to return to form in his preferred FS position. If Adams struggles or shows his age, rookie free agent Demetrius Cox is next in line. This would not be ideal as Cox spent his entire preseason with the Bengals and it will take time for him to learn the playbook.
Kurt Coleman
With the addition of Mike Adams into the mix, the newest Panthers captain is moving back to free safety, where he was part of the Neighborhood Watch on Thieves Ave. during that magical 2015 season. Although his performance didn't dip too much from 2015 to 2016, by most measures he was better at free safety. Quick stat: he picked off 7 passes in 2015 and 4 in 2016.
Kevon Seymour
The Panthers shipped away Kaelin Clay and a 2019 7th-round pick in order to shore up their nickel corner position with Corn Elder now officially out for the year and UDFA Cole Luke ailing. Seymour will more likely than not be active for game day and he will be a name to watch should Captain Munnerlyn (or one of the Panthers' traditional corners) miss any time.
Mario Addison
A lot of people close to the team are expecting a big year from Mario Addison, who in turn is expected to play a bigger role. Super Mario played a touch less than half of the Panthers' defensive snaps and still notched 9.5 sacks. Expect him to hit double digits this year. This PFF piece goes into what you can expect from him, but my favorite stat? That he was the best pass rusher on third down last year. Seeing more Mario is going to be a very good thing.
KEY MATCHUPS
CMC, Samuel & Olsen vs 49ers Linebackers
A major key for the Panthers offense will be mismatches and one of the best ways to exploit that is with shifty slot players on linebackers. Navarro Bowman is an all-pro monster who ranks alongside Luke Kuechly as one of the best MLBs in the game. Rookie Reuben Foster is more of a run-stopper, but still has a freakish nose for the ball. These two, along with third-year man Eli Harold will provide an excellent test for the shifty McCaffery, the speedy Samuel and strong Olsen. If any of these three can exploit a weakness in the LB corps expect the offense to open-wide. If they can't break free, Carolina could default back to hard running and deep balls.
Carolina D-Line vs San Francisco RBs
Kyle Shanahan builds explosive, quarterback friendly offenses and Brian Hoyer is an underrated talent at QB. However, Shanahan's offense is predicated on a successful run game. If the 4-man rotation of Star, KK, Love and Butler can stuff Carlos Hyde and undrafted free agent Matt Breida up the middle, the whole 49ers attack plan will struggle. If the 49ers can establish a run game early it puts that much more pressure on the secondary to stay disciplined.
Christian McCaffery vs Solomon Thomas
Sunday will mark the first time the two Stanford standouts face off against each other for full contact. Thomas was a monster in Palo Alto and the two were friends in college, but you can bet he's waiting to get a chance at finally hitting McCaffery. McCaffery called Thomas one of his best friends and said the line man is "a high energy player, somebody that is definitely going to be tough to go against.” Thomas for his part said "It's going to be fun to go against him.” Look for sparks to fly if these two meet at full speed.

MATCHUP HISTORY

  • All-time series - 12-8 (Panthers lead)
  • Largest victory - 46-27 (9/18/2016)
  • Current streak - 5W (Regular season streak)
  • Since Cam Newton was drafted, the Panthers are 2-1 against the 49ers, including the 2013 playoffs.
Up until the 2002 division realignment, the Panthers and 49ers were even at 7-7 in the series. Since the realignment, the 49ers haven't been able to grasp regular season success against their former divisional rivals. The two teams did meet in the 2013 Divisional round of the playoffs. The 49ers were able to get the win and move on to the Conference round.

BY THE NUMBERS

16.3 percent
Everyone is hyping up the Solomon Thomas/Christian McCaffrey matchup, and rightfully so, but don't forget that the 49ers also picked up Alabama linebacker Reuben Foster with the 31st pick of the draft. In the 2016 season, Foster recorded a tackle for a loss or no gain on 16.3 percent of his run defense snaps, which led all of FBS. His PFF draft report card pegged his player comparison as Patrick Willis, so he's a perfect fit in San Fran. That bottom-of-the-barrel run defense won't get better overnight, but with Foster there it's not going to be a sieve.
30
From Week 13 of 2014 to Week 3 of 2016, the Panthers rushed for at least 100 yards in every one of those 30 games, which is the third-longest streak in NFL history. The Panthers went 20-9-1 in those games, including the entire 15-1 season. Hitting a century of rushing yards is a good barometer for Panthers' performance; in their history, they win 63% of the games when they hit it, and only 29.1% of games when they don't. With Run-CMC, hopefully the Panthers can hit their 5th straight, which would be the longest active streak.
13
Cameron Artis-Payne finished last season with thirteen straight inactives after seeing lots of playing time in those first three games with J-Stew hobbled. Whether or not he continues that streak in Week 1 will be a major clue as to how the team plans to use him this season in a crowded backfield. He impressed in the preseason, and he showed the skill that made the team draft him in the first place. Will he edge out Fozzy as the third RB on the depth chart? (As of right now, no.)
-2
That's the Panthers' turnover margin from last season. The Panthers recorded 27 takeaways, which is pretty good, but 19 interceptions and 10 lost fumbles mean the Panthers finished last season in the red when it comes to turnovers. Those 29 giveaways tied for fourth in the league. For comparison, the Panthers led the league in turnover margin with 20 in 2015, with an astounding 30 takeaways to 19 giveaways. It's trite to trot out turnover margin as a deciding factor in games, but there's no denying it's important, especially in the first game of the season.
13.9 percent
That's the percentage of Cam's pass attempts last year that traveled 20 or more yards, second in the league behind only Ben Roethlisberger. On those throws, he was the sixth-least accurate QB in the league, only completing about a third of them. (As a point of comparison, Sam Bradford was the league leader at 57.4%.) With new weapons and coming off of surgery, Cam should be able to pick and choose his deep passes a bit more. Keep an eye out for when he DOES go deep on Sunday.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Notable posts from this week in /Panthers

SPECIAL THANKS

Everyone that makes these weekly posts possible. Including but not limited to:
JCoxRocks
appgrad22
ACraftyRooster
Sabre500
that_guy_you_kno
and introducing the newest member of the analysis team...
dialaview
if you are interested in being a weekly contributor to the /Panthers Analysis Team, message the moderators here

submitted by PanthersExtraPoints to panthers [link] [comments]

[OC] A Look Back at Elway's Drafts: 2012

2012

2012 Selections
Derek Wolfe, DE (#36) (Note: Wolfe was drafted as a DT but was always listed as a DE)
Pre-Draft Scouting: NFL.com
Strengths
Weaknesses
(Sidenote: NFL.com gave him a 47.5 grade, which means they didn’t project much out of him. If there was ever a player to show that the draft isn’t a science, it’d be Wolfe)
WalterFootball’s scouting reporting on Wolfe ended up being a little more accurate than NFL.com’s.
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction: Denver Post and MHR
Player picked next: Mitchell Schwartz, OT (#37)
Player at position picked next: Kendall Reyes, DT (#49) or Vinny Curry, DE (#59)
2018 BMB Take:
If the 2011 draft/offseason sewed the seeds for the Broncos future domination, then 2012 was the plants sprouting. The offseason was headlined by signing the biggest name free agent in NFL history. The draft saw the Broncos turn their attention to the other side of the ball and draft three guys who would become impact players on one of the best defenses in recent memory. The Child Eater was the first of these three.
Wolfe is an example of an ideal high 2nd-round draft pick. Short of becoming a truly elite player (which is possible, but not probable in that slot), he’s done everything the Broncos have wanted him. He made a great duo with Malik Jackson (for like the one year the Broncos used Malik properly lolthanks JDR). He provides a nasty edge on the defense. He’s an extremely physical player who plays with relentless effort and energy. His ability to howl off the edge and pack onto lineman was one of the many things that made the 2015 Broncos a generational defense.
The only concern so far with Wolfe has been various injuries. He suffered a horrible spinal injury in 2013 and had various injuries that plagued his 2016 and 2017 seasons. Looking forward, Wolfe being able to bounce back in 2018 will be key for the Broncos success. Reportedly, his injury situation has improved. Perhaps that’s a good sign and he’ll be back to eating children lineman and QBs for 2018. Regardless of what the future holds for him, Wolfe was a very good pick at #36 and the Broncos don’t win the Super Bowl without him.
Brock Osweiler, QB (#57)
Pre-Draft Scouting: NFL.com scouting report
Strengths
Weaknesses
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction: IAOFM, Brock’s reaction, YahooSports
Player picked next: Lavonte David, LB (#58)
Player at position picked next: Russell Wilson, QB (#75)
2018 BMB Take:
If there was ever a pick to criticize, here it is. It’s been a common talking point among the “Elway is a bad drafter” crowd for years, but I’ll share it again here. The Broncos could’ve taken Russell Wilson here, had him sit behind Peyton for a few years, and then trotted him out. Yes, that would’ve been nice and peachy. It’s painful to think about how our current QB issues could so easily have been resolved.
But let’s go back to 2012 and provide a bit of context. I’m not going to argue that actually the Broncos were right to pick Osweiler over Wilson, all I’m trying to do is explain why the Broncos made that unfortunate choice.
It was April 27th, 2012. The Broncos, around a month ago, signed one Peyton Manning. Ol’ Fivehead was coming off of missing the whole 2011 season with his four neck surgeries. There was a lot of uncertainty about what level of play he would reach. It was a legitimate question whether he would be a capable NFL player again, yet alone the MVP that he would end up becoming. Even if he ended up reaching that level again, he probably had 2-4 years left anyway. The Broncos obviously needed to add another QB, preferably a young one to groom for the future.
Enter Brock Osweiler.
The Broncos decided to not select Russell Wilson and instead take Brock Osweiler. They were going with the old Al Davis adage of You can’t teach speed!, or at least in a similar ballpark. The raw, physical attributes of Osweiler were extremely tantalizing for the Broncos. With a few years to sit on the bench and marinate, it was possible he’d work out of his “rawness” and become a decade-long starter for the Broncos. Sure, Wilson had higher upside now. But that present value was useless if he was going to be holding a clipboard for the next few seasons. In that case, having a project guy might work out.
Consensus among scouts was that the talent was there. He was pegged as a for-sure 2nd rounder, if not sneaking into the 1st. NFL teams, for as long as the pig has been skinned, have valued talent and potential. Perhaps it’s the ego of coaches and GMs showing or perhaps they are genuinely convinced they can scrub out the stains, but the justifications don’t matter. Osweiler was every QB coaches’ dream; a great athlete with a good head on his shoulders who just needed to get the mental side of the game down. If he could get a handle on that, maybe Manning/Osweiler would be this generation’s Montana/Young.
It didn’t end up that way.
The early results were promising when he received his first meaningful time in 2015. He didn’t light the world on fire, but he played solid enough football to win some big games and help the Broncos clinch the #1 seed. Perhaps with a full offseason of work in the system, with an extremely talented roster surrounding him, the Broncos could end up continuing to be pretty ok after the impending retirement of PFM.
The Broncos plans, the gains from four years of working on seasoning this lobster, all came crashing down. After the season he spurred the Broncos big money offer to sign a bigger money offer with the Texans. After an extremely poor year in Houston, Osweiler found himself traded to Cleveland as a salary dump and eventually cut. He found his way back to Denver as backup/startethird-string QB. All roads do lead home.
This gamble of project/safe is one that countless teams have taken over the years. The high-ceiling/high-floor young guy has more value than the safe prospect in the moment. Nobody wants to plan for the worst possible outcome when drafting a player. That’s like going to a first date planning out how you’ll break up with them.
Combine this mindset with the criticisms about Russell Wilson’s height (which, by the way, I find height criticisms of QBs short-sighted and simplistic but that’s a story for another time) and the Broncos had an easy out to roll the bones on the big guy and give themselves some “logical” cover for what could become a head-scratching pick down the line.
One last point about the timeless OsweileWilson debate. Peyton’s also a huge guy. He was (listed) at 6’5” and ~230. Brock is (listed) at 6’7” (he claims that he’s actually 6’6” and the 6’7” stems from his basketball days so let’s split the difference) and ~240. While I do thinks QBs of any “normal” height can be decently successful (let’s say Wilson’s 5’11 to Brock’s 6’6.5”), there does exist a logical argument that taller QBs need taller lineman and taller receivers and shorter QBs the opposite. Since the Broncos were building their offense around a huge QB like Peyton, the logic of having a young, also huge QB does fit in with this angle.
The Broncos should’ve picked Wilson. It would’ve helped to continue the Broncos dominance and would’ve set the team up for future success. However, back in 2012, the logic did make some sense. It didn’t work out and that’s regrettable for the Broncos. But criticizing the team for a pick that was rational when it occurred seems a little short-sighted.
Ronnie Hillman, RB (#67)
Pre-Draft Scouting: NFL.com
Strengths
Weaknesses
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction: IAOFM
Player picked next: DeVier Posey, WR (#68)
Player at position picked next: Bernard Pierce, RB (#84)
2018 BMB Take:
Want a hot take? Ronnie Hillman wasn’t a bad draft pick. He wasn't good, but he wasn’t bad.
I’ll let Coach Green describe him.
Hillman’s scouting report is probably one of the more accurate ones out there. It says his YPC was skewed by big runs (held true in NFL), he’s very fast in open space (yep), not a very explosive/shifty player (mhm), and has little power (accurate). He was more or less the same player the Broncos drafted in 2012 throughout his whole four year career. While this wasn’t what the Broncos wanted, the fact that he had some success in the league is impressive. Forget him or not, he was the leading rusher in the 2015 season and had a very good game in Week 17 against the Chargers to help them clinch homefield throughout the playoffs.
Ronnie was held back through his career by his turnover problem. He had 8 turnovers over his Bronco career (CJ Anderson only had 4) and showed incredibly low football IQ when he failed to cover the ball in the 2015 AFCCG. He also was unable to put together any sort of consistency from game-to-game. He’d have great games where he’d show his elite speed but then would look like just another guy the next game. His turnover issues also prevented coaches from trusting him. After his fumble against the Colts in 2013 with the game on the line, he didn’t receive a touch for the next 7 games.
Hillman was also crazy young when the Broncos drafted him (20 years old, turned 21 during his rookie year). He was put in the uncomfortable position of having to the Broncos go-to back during their playoff game due to injuries. He wasn’t anything special (22 for 83 rushing, 3 for 20 receiving), but when he had less than 100 touches during the season his performance becomes a little more admirable.
Oh, and the only two RBs worth a darn selected below him were Lamar Miller and Alfred Morris. Morris, who is his generation’s Mike Anderson or Olandis Gary, is a relic of Shanahanigans gone to the wayside. Miller is a pretty good RB with the right skills, though has never been able to put it together consistently. So, it isn’t like the Broncos missed out on anything special (at RB) by talking the Hill Man. While there could’ve been better picks for the Broncos, Hillman did at least contribute something during his Bronco tenure.
What is daming about the Hillman selection is how he is (probably) the 2nd or 3rd best skill position player the Broncos have drafted under Elway. More on that later, though.
Omar Bolden, DB (#101)
Pre-Draft Scouting: NFL.com
Strengths
Weaknesses
(Remember NFL.com’s score system? I hate to bag on it, but they projected Bolden as a future All-Pro. That’s, uh, a little less than accurate.)
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction: The Denver Post had reactions for the 4th-6th round picks here.
Player picked next: Kirk Cousins, QB (#102)
Player at position picked next: Coty Sensabaugh, DB (#115)
2018 BMB Take:
In the spirit of #positiveliving, I’m just going to say positive things about Bolden.
Jk, I’m too jaded to do that.
Bolden fits into a trilogy of draft picks the Broncos had in 2012-14 of players who never did what they were drafted to do, but found a role on ST. Bolden found a niche as the Broncos on-again, off-again kick/punt returner. He had a few big returns in 2014 (Bengals, Dolphins) and 2015 (Colts, playoffs against the Steelers), but never became an elite returner. His last season in Denver was limited by a hamstring injury and a partial PCL tear, the latter of which caused him to end his season IR.
As a prospect, Bolden was hyped as a possible sleeper candidate to end up as a good CB. He was First-Team All Pac-10 in 2010 and was looking to have a great senior season in 2011. However, an ACL tear in his knee ended up sidelining him for the entire year and cause him to fall in the draft. For a guy who was getting (fringe) first round buzz after his 2010 season to fall due to injury is exemplary of why guys should always take the money and run.
After the 2015 season was over, Bolden attempted a comeback by signing with the Bears and reuniting with John Fox. However, he was waived before camp was done and hasn’t seen a lot of public interest from teams. Even so, Bolden did work back from a career-altering ACL tear to win a Super Bowl. Perhaps there’s another timeline where he never gets hurt in college and becomes the elite CB he may been. Bolden is a testament to how hard (and sometimes based on luck) it can be to make it to the NFL. At least Bolden, whose career could’ve gone so different if he didn’t catch the injury bug in college, won a ring.
Philip Blake, OL (#108)
Pre-Draft Scouting: NFL.com
Strengths
Weaknesses
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction: MHR There isn’t a lot going on in the article, but the comments provide a good “temperature” of how Broncos Country reacted to the pick. The Denver Post also had reactions for the 4th-6th round picks here.
Player picked next: Alameda Ta'amu, DT (#109)
Player at position picked next: Bobby Massie, OT (#112)
2018 BMB Take:
It’s hard to say that a 4th round pick busted, but Philip Blake comes close to it. Blake, who was drafted with the 13th pick in the 4th round, never played an NFL game and was waived after his second training camp. It’s odd for a 4th rounder to never see any playing time, let alone not even dress for a game.
Now, the Broncos did do something similar with fellow lineman Michael Schofield (2014 3rd round) and Connor McGovern (2016 5th round). It’s perfectly ok to have a project player to “redshirt” their first year while they adjust to the speed and physicality of the NFL. Especially lineman, who may need to bulk or cut. But if that was the plan with Blake, why waive him? Was it just so obvious after his 2nd full offseason that he wasn’t ever going to amount to anything? Perhaps this was the case and the Broncos didn’t fall into the trap of the Sunk Cost Fallacy. Good on them!
After his entirely forgettable and unremarkable Broncos career, Blake spent 2013 on the Arizona Cardinals practice squad before being released after their 2014 training camp. He never would play in an NFL game. The native Canadian would return up north and sign with the Montreal Alouettes in 2015, where he finally played a down of professional football. Blake was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2011 CFL draft by the Alouettes. He would’ve been a top 5 pick, but when it became clear he was going to stay at Baylor and eventually go to the NFL he fell down their draft board. For a guy who didn’t even play football until his senior year of high school, even playing in the CFL is a very impressive feat.
Remember my point about Mike Mohamed and the “lunch pail CFB player”? Blake was the total opposite of this archetype. He fits another trope of the late-round pick; all the raw, physical strengths in the world but none of the technique and skill. The thinking is that with the right coaching and the passage of time, the player can grow from a raw prospect to a tremendous player who can take advantage of their athletic ability. However, with Blake, this obviously didn’t work out.
I don’t like to say here’s who the Broncos could’ve taken instead, but Mike Daniels was taken later in 4th round. Yikes. However, if the Broncos ended up taking Daniels then they likely wouldn’t have drafted…
Malik Jackson, DL (#137)
Pre-Draft Scouting: NFL.com
Strengths
Weaknesses
BleacherReport had a little bit about him as well.
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction: The Denver Post had reactions for the 4th-6th round picks here.
Player picked next: Tahir Whitehead, LB (#138)
Player at position picked next: Billy Winn, DT (#205)
2018 BMB Take:
The Broncos have had a lot of talented players under Elway. As such, a lot of talented players have left in FA once their rookie contracts are up. Most of these players, while I have fond memories of and wish them well in their future, I don’t end up really missing. Not to say they aren’t great players, but I can accept the loss.
Malik? Oh man, every single time I watch the Jags play I’m like Kylo Ren at the end of TLJ. Thirsty as hell and wishing that things went differently.
It’s a crime against football that the first three years of Malik’s career were spent in JDR’s soft, read-and-react defense. He made only 8 starts his first three seasons. Even counting that lack of playing time, he still put together a 6 sack season in 2013. Once the Broncos hired Wade Phillips in 2015 and moved to his aggressive 3-4, it came as no surprise that Malik Jackson was a human wrecking ball the whole season. For the first time his career he started all 16 games (and all 3 playoff games), while being a dominant force against the run and rushing the passer. Week in and week out, Jackson was a treat to watch in 2015.
One of the hallmarks of any great defense is a bit of a nasty streak and meanness. Think back to some of the great defenses: ‘85 Bears, ‘13 Seahawks, the Steel Curtain, the ‘00 Ravens. Not only did they all feature numerous elite players, but they also had tough personalities that played through the whistle. Malik Jackson’s penchant for late hits and personal fouls sometimes got frustrating, but it’s that behavior and attitude was a cornerstone of the ‘15 defense. Jackson (along with his 2012 draft classmate Derek Wolfe) made teams think twice before running his way. The Broncos don’t give up only 3.3 ypc during 2015 (which lead the league) without Jackson.
However, it wasn’t meant to be a long-term relationship. His breakout season coincided with his contrat year. The Broncos had a slew of other UFAs to sign (along with assuming they’d have a big contract for Osweiler) and Malik wasn’t coy with his (justified) desire to cash in. As soon as FA opened, he signed a big money contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He made his first Pro Bowl in 2017 and was a big part of the Jags elite defense last year. Luckily, he didn’t reunite with JDR in Oakland as was rumored. I guess the player can leave the Broncos, but the Bronco can’t leave the player.
Malik was a tremendous draft pick in both value and also on-the-field performance. If the Broncos, who have a few late round picks this year, could pick another Malik, they’d be setting themselves up greatly for the future.
Danny Trevathan, LB (#188)
Pre-Draft Scouting: WalterFootball
Strengths
Weaknesses
Immediate, Post-Draft reaction: PredominatelyOrange and the Denver Post had reactions for the 4th-6th round picks here.
Player picked next: Christo Bilukidi, DE (#189)
Player at position picked next: Emmanuel Acho, LB (#204)
2018 BMB Take:
Remember how in the 2011, I talk about how the goal with 6th/7th rounders is to find guys that are good rotation players? Maybe make an impact on ST or as quality depth?
Yeah, the Lionbacker wasn’t going to settle for just depth.
After playing a mostly reserve role his rookie year, Trevathan started all 16 games his sophomore year. On a very subpar Broncos defense, he was a major brightspot. He made play after play in a year known for offense, including the game-changing pick of Tony Romo against the Cowboys. He basically missed all of 2014 with various knee injuries before coming back in 2015. In that magical year, Trevathan really made his presence felt. He lived in the heart of one of the best defenses in recent history. Like all the Bronco defenders that year, he made clutch play after clutch play. Trevathan’s came in the form of a fumble recovery in the Super Bowl and a pick six against the Chargers.
Trevathan is one of the more depressing players in the Elway draft history. He was a great player in Denver (still is in Chicago), he made a great duo with Marshall in 2015 (which would’ve continued being elite), and the Broncos totally could have afforded signing him after the 2015 season. However, because of his knee history, the Broncos made the smart financial decision to not risk his knees blowing out again and losing the cap space. Because of this, Trevathan ended up in Chicago. He’s played relatively well, but suffered a knee injury in 2016 which prematurely ended his season. If not for his knee problems, it’s possible that Trevathan and Marshall are still terrorizing the middle of the field in Denver.
2012 Draft Comparisons
Here’s the sheet with the 2012 drafts of all five teams. If it didn’t work properly, just click the “2012” on the bottom.
A few selected thoughts on the other drafts:
Patriots:
Seahawks:
Packers:
Browns:
2012 Concluding Thoughts
Elway’s second draft built the foundation for what would become one of the greatest defenses in recent memory. If Von Miller is the beautiful windows and stunning foyer, then the “triplets” taken in 2012 are the nails and mortar holding it all together. The Broncos, whose 8-8 season the preceding year was a bit flukey, still had some holes on the roster that needed to be filled. The arrival of Peyton Manning allowed them to take a few gamble picks (Bolden, Osweiler) since PFM covers up holes like he works for a road crew, in addition to the team becoming the go-to destination for all FAs. It changed the Broncos whole draft philosophy.
In terms of value, a team really couldn’t do better than Malik Jackson or Danny Trevathan. To find Pro Bowl-caliber players in day 3 is rare in its own right, let alone to get two in the same draft. These are the type of picks that fuel dynasties and are the backbones of all-time great units/teams. Sadly, in the Salary Cap era, it’s difficult to retain all this talent and make it unlikely to keep truly elite units like the 2015 defense together for too long. The Broncos found themselves in the same position that the Seahawks were in a couple years prior; capped out due to big-money extensions to their best talent while the “tier 2” guys leave for their own big money contracts in FA.
Unlike 2011, there is a clear cut worst pick. I suppose the Broncos tremendous luck on the third day of 2012 wouldn’t hold for all their picks and Blake proved it. Ironically enough, their second highest pick in rounds 4-7 ended up being the one that did literally nothing in the NFL whereas the 6th rounder became a great ILB. Blake’s raw physicality could never be developed in the NFL game and that gamble didn’t pay off for the Broncos.
(I actually had him as the worst pick before slapping myself in the face. I think I’ve been kneedeep in PFR logs too long)
Brock was the worst pick (I ain’t that contrarian). The fact that they got a few decent-to-good games out of him doesn’t excuse that he was the football equivalent to Tormato. If the Broncos had selected Wilson, Cousins dead to me, or even Nick “I have as many SBMVPs as Peyton Manning” Foles, perhaps they wouldn’t be in the state of offensive offense they’ve lived in over the past couple of seasons.
While 2012 wasn’t as flashy as the 2011 for the Broncos, it did produce three great defensive players, a solid depth RB, and a ST player who made some good plays. Nothing spectacular, but it got the job done. It’s like duct tape. Good, sturdy duct tape. Without that tape, the 2015 team would’ve fallen apart and not reached the heights it did.
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132+ Teams in 132+ Days: Day 84 - TCU Horned Frogs

STILL IN EDITING PHASE: PLEASE EXCUSE WHILE WE CLEAN UP!
Texas Christian University Horned Frogs Big 12 Conference
Year Founded: 1873
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Total Attendance: 9,725
Mascot: Horned Frogs
Live Mascot: SuperFrog
Cheerleaders: Best known for the TCU Showgirls, Bonus Showgirls, Cheerleaders
Stadium: Amon G. Carter Stadium just finished a $164 million renovation, which was 100% funded by private donations. It was only football stadium nominated for up for the 2013 Sports Business "Sports Facility of the Year."
Stadium Location: Stadium Drive, on the west side of campus and across from the student union + campus commons
Conference Champions (17): 1920, 1929, 1932, 1938, 1944, 1951, 1955, 1958, 1959, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011
Number of Bowl Games: 29 (13-15-1)
National Titles (2): 1935, 1938
2012 Season
Record: 7-6
Coach: Gary Patterson
Key Players:
  • True freshman Devonte Fields stepped in to become the Big 12 defensive player of the year, finishing with 10 sacks. In a rainy game ongoing monsoon during TCU’s game against rival SMU, he posted 7 tackles, 4 for loss, and 2.5 sacks.
  • Redshirt freshman Trevone Boykin filled some big shoes when quarterback Casey Pachall was suspended for the season after being arrested on suspicion of DUI. At the time, Pachall had the highest QBR in football. Boykin was taking reps as a running back two days before start against Iowa State. He struggled at times, but managed to lead the team to wins against Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas (all on the road).
  • Josh Boyce seemed to be the only consistent offensive threat for the Frogs. The wide receiver was limited due to the quarterback situation, but the junior broke most of the career receiving records at TCU on his way to another great season. He would have broken more, but decided to declare for the NFL Draft. He was picked up in the 4th round by the New England Patriots and signed a 4 yea$2.6 million deal.
Biggest Plays:
  • TCU picks off Baylor five times in TCU’s 49-21 routing over Baylor.
  • In the same game, Trevone Boykin secures his fame at TCU by going 13-13 in passing on third down plays, including four TDs, and rushes for one too.
  • Down a touchdown to WVU late in the 4th quarter, Trevone Boykin avoided a safety and connected with Josh Boyce, who went 94 yards to tie the game for the Horned Frogs.
  • Later in the game, after scoring in the second overtime, Coach Patterson decides to use his famous brass balls (if you ever wondered why he’s always adjusting his pants) and go for the 2-point conversion to win the game. On the same exact play that beat Boise State in 2011, Trevone Boykin scrambled right to find Josh Boyce for the win.
  • With 1:37 left against Texas and the Longhorns at midfield, Case McCoy made a poor throw into traffic and was intercepted by Sam Carter to seal a win in Austin and make the Frogs bowl-eligible for the 14th time in 15 years.
    2013 Season
  • Roster
  • Schedule
    The Greats
    Greatest Games:
  • Led by legendary quarterback Davey O'Brien (the guy the QB award is named after), TCU beat Carnegie Tech in the 1939 Sugar Bowl. It gave the Frogs their first consensus national championship (they also share claim to the 1935 title).
  • In the 1957 Cotton Bowl Classic, the underdog Horned Frogs blocked an extra point to beat the Jim Brown-led Syracuse Orange 28-27.
  • In a 52-24 rout of UTEP in 1999, LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for an NCAA record 406 yards and six touchdowns. His quote after the game: "All the credit goes to the offensive line. They've done a great job of creating holes all season," Tomlinson said. "I need to buy them a couple of steaks."
  • In 2010, BCS busters collided when No. 3 TCU traveled to Salt Lake City to take on the No. 5 Utah Utes. With a Mountain West Conference title and BCS dreams on the line, fans camping out for ESPN GameDay, and fans paying upwards of $200 for standing-room tickets, it was the biggest game in the conference's history. It turned out to be an embarrassment for the Utes. The Frogs dominated Utah in every way, snapping Utah's 21-game home winning streak in a 47-7 win on the road.
  • In Casey Pachall's first start, TCU traveled down to Waco for a Big 12 preview against Baylor in 2011. Robert Griffin III looked Heisman-worthy in jumping out to a huge 47-24 lead entering the 4th quarter. Pachall led the Frogs to an astonishing comeback, scoring 25 points in less than 11 minutes to give the Frogs the lead. With their back against the wall on a 3rd and 10, Baylor used a trick play and receiver Kendall Wright connected on a 15 yard pass to the quarterback. The Bears' drive continued and set up the go-ahead field goal with 1:04 left to play. Pachall wasn't done, either. The Frogs got the ball on their own 14, and marched down to the Baylor 40-yard line. Pachall's late interception on 3rd and 10 denied TCU's chance at a game-winning field goal.
  • After its first undefeated season in the BCS era, TCU made it to the 2011 Fiesta Bowl against fellow BCS buster Boise State. Trick plays would spell doom for the Frogs however, as TCU would fall 17-10 in the desert.
  • After an undefeated season, TCU was left out of the BCS Championship due to undefeated Auburn and Oregon teams and sent to the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin. The Badgers were averaging 67 points over their last three games, but the Frogs were coming in with the nation's top defense. Needing a 2-point conversion to tie with exactly 2:00 left, Tank Carder's immaculate deflection eventually gave the Horned Frogs its first BCS win and an undefeated season.
Greatest Players:
"Slingin'" Sammy Baugh: The Sweetwater six-shooter became the weapon of choice in the first primarily passing attack in college football. Teams had thrown the ball long before Baugh, but it was mostly used as a surprise. Coach Dutch Meyer and Baugh perfected the downfield pass, and Baugh would later be instrumental in making the forward pass part of the NFL playbook. He was also the team's starting punter and defensive back. Did I mention he also played baseball for TCU, and was in the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system before being drafted by the Washington Redskins? When asked about being drafted he said: "I didn't know what they were talking about, because frankly, I had never heard of either the draft or the Washington Redskins." Oh yeah, he also took up acting in a 12-week series called "King of the Texas Rangers". In the NFL, he retired with the record for the most seasons leading the league in passing (6, which still stands, tied with Steve Young), and highest career punting average (45.1, which is second all-time behind Shane Lechler).
Davey O'Brien: TCU's lone Heisman winner, first Heisman winner from the Southwest Conference and namesake to the award given to the best quarterback in collegiate football came to TCU as Baugh's backup in 1935. He still holds the NCAA record for most combined passing and rushing plays in a single season - 400. The 1938 O'Brien-led Horned Frogs outscored opponents 269-60, and held all but one of their 10 regular season opponents to seven points or less. In 1939, he went on to lead the NFL in passing his rookie year, breaking Sammy Baugh's standing single-season record. He did so again in 1940, then retired to become an FBI agent.
Jim Swink: The Rusk Rambler was one of the best running backs in Southwest Conference history, leading the Frogs to consecutive conference championships in 1955 and 1956. His most memorable game came in a 47-20 win over the Texas Longhorns in Austin. He rushed for 235 yards and scored 26 points.
Bob Lilly: Known more for his 11 Pro Bowl seasons with the Dallas Cowboys' "doomsday defense", Lilly was a dominant defensive lineman and consensus All-American for the Horned Frogs. He is now considered among the best defensive linemen in NFL history.
LaDainian Tomlinson: Holds the NCAA single-game rushing record with 406 against UTEP in 1999. Didn't play running back until his senior year of high school. He won the 2000 Doak Walker Award and Jim Brown Trophy before being the 5th selection in the 2001 NFL Draft.
Andy Dalton: Nicknamed the "Red Rifle" by Bengals fans (how did we never think of that?), Dalton took over the starting spot as a redshirt freshman and led the Frogs to an 8-5 season and 2007 Texas Bowl win. From then on, Dalton's Frogs went 34-3 with losses to then-No. 2 Oklahoma (eventual BCS runner up) and No. 10 Utah (13-0 with Sugar Bowl win over Bama) in 2008 and No. 3 Boise State in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl. He is the Mountain West Conference career leader in total offense and holds most TCU career passing records. High points include completing 21-23 passes in a 45-10 domination of then-junior Robert Griffin III's Baylor Bears in 2010, completing 21-26 for 355 yards and 3 TD in a 47-7 beating of then-No. 5 Utah in Salt Lake City, and in his final game, beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.
Greatest Coaches:
  • Gary Patterson: GMFP, as he’s well-known as in Fort Worth, is a staunch advocate of the 4-2-5 defense and is regarded as one of the greatest defensive minds in modern college football. TCU has led the nation in total defense more times (5) than any team since the NCAA started tracking statistics in 1937 and last year led the Big 12 in defense, despite having only one senior in the starting lineup. All five seasons have come under Gary Patterson since 2000. He is winningest coach in school history with a 116-36 (72-23) record as head coach, and has only failed to make a bowl game once (2004). Thanks to the revolving conference door, he has coached the Frogs in bowl games as a member of four different conferences (WAC, CUSA, MWC and Big 12). Aside from coaching, he's also a pretty good guitar player!
  • Dutch Meyer: Dutch's famous quote, "Fight 'em until hell freezes over. Then fight 'em on the ice!", can be seen on locker room walls, t-shirts, and of course, above the entryway to the back dining room at Dutch's Hamburgers -- a mainstay across from TCU's campus named after the legendary coach and home of the best hamburger buns in the world. Both TCU national championships came under Dutch. He revolutionized football by incorporating the short pass as the primary play in the offense, and is one of the early inventors of the spread formation. He retired from football in 1952 to become athletic director. In 1956, without someone to fill the position, he decided to also coach the baseball team, leading the Frogs to a SWC championship that year. In 1934, "Old Iron Pants" served as TCU's football, baseball, and basketball coach.
  • Jim Pittman: More a fun trivial fact than “great coach,” Pittman coached only seven games for TCU before dying of a heart attack on the field during a game against Baylor in Waco in 1971.
Greatest Rivalries:
SMU (45-40-7) The rivalry started in 1915 with a 43-0 TCU win, and has continued to this day for all but six years (two of which were SMU's death penalty years). According to legend, The "Battle for the Iron Skillet" name started when SMU fans were frying frog legs before a game. A TCU fan bet the frog legs -- and the skillet -- on the game. TCU would win the game. The trophy is currently at Amon G. Carter Stadium after last year's monsoon-ish 24-16 victory. The rivalry has gone through lopsided streaks, with TCU going 14-2-1 between 1949-1965, then SMU going 19-2 between 1966-1986. The Frogs have won every game since 1999 except for a painful 21-10 loss in 2005 (it was TCU's only loss of the season after beating Adrian Peterson's No. 5 Sooners) and a home overtime loss in 2011.
Baylor (51-50-7) From 1899, when TCU was still located in Waco (until a "mysterious fire" burned down the campus in 1910) until the SWC disbanded in 1995, TCU and Baylor played each other 103 times. It is one of the oldest and most-played rivalries in football. Like the SMU rivalry, both teams enjoyed streaks, with TCU dominating most of the 50's and 60's, and Baylor taking most of the 70's and 80's. Now the only private schools in the Big 12, the rivalry is coming back to its form as TCU is 2-1 against Baylor in the past three years.
Others Thanks to TCU's entrance in the Big 12, the Frogs have renewed old rivalries with SWC foes Texas and Texas Tech. TCU beat Texas 20-13 in front of the largest crowd the Frogs had ever played in front of (99,950 attended) and lost to Tech 56-53 in a triple OT thriller. TCU also had a number of minor rivalries in the Mountain West, including BYU and BCS busters Utah & Boise State. ESPN College Gameday came to the last two matchups between Utah and TCU, and Boise State has provided TCU with some great contests as well. If given the right amount of time, TCU could have developed into some serious hate with these three schools.
Traditions
  • Riff Ram Bah Zoo -- shown in this video by some older alumni -- is one of the oldest cheers in football, unchanged since the early 1920's. * Frog Horn -- TCU has a large horn, painted in the form of a purple Horned Frog. A large train horn is mounted to it and blares whenever the Frogs enter the field or score.
  • Bleacher Creatures -- Before every game, kids can go onto the field and run out with the team at the team entrance. Founded in 2001 by Gary Patterson, DT David Johnson holds the distinction of becoming the first player to play for TCU after running with the Bleacher Creatures as a child.
  • I Won’t Back Down -- At the beginning of every fourth quarter, Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers’ 1989 classic plays over the loudspeakers with accompanying highlights. Tom Petty is one of Patterson’s all-time favorite performers.
  • Frog Alley/Frog Walk -- Before each game, the street going from Stadium Drive to the actual stadium gets filled with vendors, musicians, bounce houses and a lot of other stuff. Before the game, the band, Showgirls and cheer team marches through and the Frogs get off the team bus to unload into the stadium.
  • Fear The Frog flag -- A new tradition made during TCU’s debut Big 12 season, a giant flag is waved after a substantial play.
Campus and Surrounding Area
City Population: 777,992 (16th)
City Skyline
Iconic Campus Building:
  • Campus Commons. Nothing in this picture existed before 2007. It's part of a huge building and renovation phase for the university (TCU is often joked as Texas Construction University) - now totaling more than $1 billion since 2007.
  • Robert Carr Chapel. The tallest building on campus (just inches taller than the football stadium, the old joke going "Texas: Where God is just barely above football"). Tour guides tell visiting students to book their wedding then, as the chapel is a very popular place for Horned Frog nuptials (I believe the next wedding date available is in February of 2014, but that was a few months ago that I checked).
Local Dining:
  • Dutch's Hamburgers. Named after the legendary head coach (if you haven't been reading), Dutch's is home to the world's best hamburger buns. They also have 1/2 price burgers and $2 premium drafts on Tuesday and $5 pitchers of Shiner on Thursday. Hard to beat.
  • Buffalo Bros -- I linked to their Facebook because the site is under maintenance. Dozens of TV's with every sports package available, homemade pizza, homemade wings with sauce imported from Buffalo, a full service bar, and drink specials every day? Makes sense, right? My favorite -- whiskey and wings Wednesdays. Boneless or traditional wings for 50 cents and all whiskey is $4.
  • Fuzzy's. Yes, this is the original Fuzzy's. The one before they sold out to the man and started opening them everywhere. Hard to miss a trip to TCU without some fish tacos and a signature purple margarita.
  • Joe T. Garcia’s A bit away from the stadium, but widely regarded as the best Mexican food in the city. A must-have in the city of Fort Worth.
  • Salsa Limon. A sketchy food truck run by guys who disappear to Miami all the time. After hitting the local bars, it's hard to beat these tacos, though.
Current NFL players (17)
  • Daryl Washington, LB, Arizona Cardinals
  • Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
  • Jeremy Kerley, WR, New York Jets
  • Tank Carder, LB, Cleveland Browns
  • Josh Boyce, WR, New England Patriots
  • Stansly Maponga, DE, Atlanta Falcons
  • Marcus Cannon, OL, New England Patriots
  • Jerry Hughes, LB/DE, Buffalo Bills
  • Marshall Newhouse, OL, Green Bay Packers
  • David Hawthorne, LB, New Orleans Saints
  • Jason Phillips, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
  • Colin Jones, S, Carolina Panthers
  • Matthew Tucker, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
  • Skye Dawson, WKPR, Washington Redskins
  • Clint Gresham, LS, Seattle Seahawks
  • Jimmy Young, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Braylon Broughton, DT, Detroit Lions
Random Trivia
  • Girls, girls, girls: TCU has been ranked by several organizations, including The Onion, MyPlan, and College Prowler has having the hottest girls of any university. Anyone in disagreement may consult any Google results of “TCU Showgirls”.
  • David and Goliath: Other than Wake Forest, TCU is the smallest school in the BCS. It is also the smallest school to ever win a BCS game. Not everything is small at TCU, though. Next to UT (with 55,000 students), TCU has the largest endowment in the Big 12 ($1.4 billion).
  • With added exposure thanks to its athletic programs, the academic profile has increased significantly. With a 2012 acceptance rate of 37%, TCU is the most selective school in Texas behind Rice. Its business, nursing, and pre-med programs rank among some of the elite in the nation.
  • While many focus on the "C" in TCU, the university is actually mostly secular (meaning separate from religion). TCU has no religious requirements, other than for students to take one religious class (of their choosing) as part of the University Core Curriculum. This can be anything from The Bible to Scriptures of Islam to Religous Sects and Cults. TCU is the largest university affiliated with the First Christian Church (Disciples of Christ), which still has an affiliation to the school through scholarships, programs, and members of the board. TCU is often jokingly referred to by students as “Texas Construction University” for the constant construction.
  • TCU was one of the first schools in the southwest to allow women and African-Americans. The university nearly folded because of people pulling funding because of these reasons.
  • TCU was the first major university to offer a Bachelor's Degree in ballet. The joke being -- TCU had ballet before it was legal to dance at Baylor. This is actually true. When dancing was finally allowed at Baylor, the president warned against anything "obscene or provocative. No pelvic gyrations, no excessive closeness, and no dirty dancing." Oh, by the way... This was in 1996.
What Is and What is to Come
The 2013 season has a lot of potential for the Horned Frogs. The season opener against LSU will be a good measuring stick for a squad returning nine starts from the conference's best team defense, but they will be without star DE Devonte Fields due to a two-game suspension. More importantly, it will be a welcome-back for reinstated quarterback Casey Pachall. Coach Patterson is still mum on who the starting quarterback will be, but any and all speculation leads to Pachall taking the reigns back from Trevone Boykin. Pachall didn't throw at all during his stint in an alcohol rehab clinic, but looked sharp during spring practices. He has packed on all the weight he lost, and even beefed up a little bit (about 6'5", 230 pounds). He also took the majority of first-team reps during spring practice. Due to scheduling entering the Big 12, the Frogs will play at OSU for the second consecutive year, and an odd Thursday night game/away game in Lubbock against Texas Tech will be great tests for the Frogs.
This year's schedule is much easier on the Frogs than last year, and after years of traveling the globe in different conferences, TCU plays eight of their 12 games in Texas and two in Oklahoma. This season will rise or fall based on the return of Casey Pachall, and if the team can stay away from off-the-field issues and injuries that plagued them last year. Consensus in Fort Worth media seems to be that the Frogs will improve on their 7-6 opening season in the Big 12 and go anywhere between 9-3 and 11-1 in the regular season. Sneaking out of Cowboys Stadium with a win over a young LSU team would be huge for the Frogs' momentum. Winning even a share of a Big 12 Championship would go a long way for a team looking to boost its goal of dominating the recruiting within Dallas-Fort Worth.
More Information Subreddit: [/TCU](www.reddit.com/tcu) Contributors: steinertimer, RiffRamBahZoo Contributor bios:
steinertimer: I saw some people were doing this, so I thought I'd write something short. I attended TCU, where I covered the football team as a student during the Fiesta Bowl and Rose Bowl years. I even won an regional Emmy Award for story I did on Gary Patterson. I currently work for the university now, but have very little involvement with the football team (definitely not enough to get free tickets). Before switching to higher education, I had a short stint writing for ESPN Dallas. I left journalism because sports journalism was too cut-throat for me (I like to think I'm a nice guy, at least), and news journalism didn't really interest me.
RiffRamBahZoo: I felt like I could contribute to the TCU 132+ Days post and felt like writing one for my school, however, it was already taken. After asking mods for help, I was pointed to steinertimer. As funny as it is, I know steinertimer in real life and previously did work with him in TCU’s journalism school. I currently serve as the sports editor for TCU’s student media and have covered a number of big events, including TCU’s 20-13 upset over Texas. Before I decided to be a sports journalist, I dressed up in a morphsuit and top hat and before that, I dressed as a 80‘s hair metal styled rocker for TCU football games.
Please upvote this thread even if you are not interested in the team so that users who are interested will see it For more information on the 132+ Teams in 132+ Days Project, see: [the full listings here](http://www.reddit.com/CFB/comments/1930fe/132_teams_in_132_days_mega_thread/
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Four Offseason Moves That Will Reshape The NFC

Four Offseason Moves That Will Reshape The NFC
by Ty Schalter via FiveThirtyEight » Features | FiveThirtyEight
URL: http://ift.tt/2v8OnPo
On Tuesday, we looked at four players who changed teams during the offseason and could tip the scales of balance in the AFC. Now, we turn our attention to the NFC, where last season’s division champions — the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks — all appear vulnerable, while several of the also-rans they bested have made significant additions.

NFC East: Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles

Opportunity: The Dallas Cowboys were the class of the NFC East last season, going 13-3. But a spate of off-field issues and the potential of regression for second-year quarterback Dak Prescott may open up an opportunity for Philadelphia. Despite finishing last in the division at 7-9, the Eagles were among the best teams in the NFL according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, finishing fourth in the league (Dallas finished second).
What needed to be addressed: Last year’s No. 2 pick of the NFL draft, Carson Wentz, took the league by storm — at least until fans, media and opposing defenses figured out that he was relying so heavily on the screen pass. According to TruMedia, Wentz threw more passes to or behind the line of scrimmage in 2017 than all but three other quarterbacks. And the Eagles ranked 29th in yards per completion last season.
Potential impact: Jeffery and fellow free-agent acquisition Torrey Smith will add serious field-stretching ability to Philadelphia’s dink-and-dunk passing attack. Jeffery averaged an outstanding 15.8 yards per reception in 2016; since Jeffery became a full-time starter in 2013, only Julio Jones and T.Y. Hilton have averaged more yards per reception over more receptions. He also provides Wentz with a much more reliable catcher of the ball:Jeffery had the 14th-lowest drop rate of 87 qualifying NFL receivers in 2016, while Eagles WRs Jordan Matthews, Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor ranked 59th, 81st and tied for last, respectively.
Carson Wentz is getting an upgradeHow new Eagles wideout Alshon Jeffery’s 2016 performance compared with that of Philadelphia’s receiving corps.
YARDS/RECAIR YARDS/TGTDROP RATE
Alshon Jeffery15.813.11.10%
Jordan Matthews11.09.64.50
Dorial Green-Beckham10.910.16.90
Nelson Agholor10.110.59.10
Source: TRUMEDIA
Question mark: At age 27, Jeffery already has a history of nagging muscle pulls and soft-tissue injuries. He also served a four-game suspension for performance-enhancing drug use in the middle of last season as a member of the Bears, making his gameday availability an ongoing concern.

NFC North: Jarrad Davis (R), LB, Lions

Opportunity: The Lions were just over half a game of head-to-head football away from claiming the NFC North crown when they squandered a 14-7 lead against the Green Bay Packers — and a 9-4 start to the season. They finished the year with three straight losses to fellow NFC playoff teams, including that Week 17, winner-take-all home game against the Packers. This spring, Detroit seriously outspent Green Bay in free agency, eyeing a possible first division title since 1993.
What needed to be addressed: Detroit had the worst defense in the NFL last season, according to DVOA. Their pass coverage was an absolute disaster, allowing opponents to be 38.1 percent more effective than average through the air — by far the worst in the NFL. But none of the Lions’ major signings were on the defensive side of the ball.
Potential impact: Davis, whom Detroit drafted with the No. 21 overall pick this spring, has been the unquestioned starter at middle linebacker since his first day on the team, according to the Lions’ official site. Head coach Jim Caldwell told the Detroit Free Press he expects Davis to “quickly” make an impact. Davis’s college defensive coordinator, Randy Shannon, described Davis as an amalgam of three linebackers Shannon coached at the University of Miami: Jonathan Vilma, Jon Beason and Ray Lewis. Together, those three boast 19 Pro Bowl appearances between them. If Davis’s athleticism and attitude are as advertised, he’ll fill a sizable portion of the hole in the middle of Detroit’s defense.
Question mark: There’s no such thing as a can’t-miss rookie. Projecting a college player’s impact on an NFL unit is closer to superstition than art, let alone science. Further, Detroit’s problems with depth and quality up front were just exacerbated by pass-rusher Armonty Bryant’s latest suspension; it’s hard for linebackers to make impact plays when opposing quarterbacks are unpressured and tailbacks have free passes to the second level of the defense.

NFC South: Adrian Peterson, RB, Saints

Opportunity: In 2016, the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers finished 6-10, good for last place in the NFC South. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons improved from a lackluster 8-8 in 2015 to winning the NFC for themselves last season. Somehow, in all the churn around them, the New Orleans Saints have finished 7-9 for three consecutive seasons. But with the Falcons losing the architect of the offense that took them to the Super Bowl, Kyle Shanahan, to the 49ers, the division could be there for the taking.
What needed to be addressed: Saints tailback Mark Ingram had the fourth-highest per-carry rate of yards before contact in 2016; he didn’t run into a defender until he’d run an average of 3.26 yards. After the crack of the pad, Ingram was solid, averaging a 14th-best 1.82 yards after contact. But he can’t compare to Peterson:
If Ingram needed any guidance learning how to make defenders looks silly, he now has the perfect mentor — albeit one who wants to steal his job. From 2011, the year Ingram entered the league, through 2016, Peterson had the highest average after-contact yardage rate of any back with at least 150 carries.
Potential impact: Peterson’s historical lack of effectiveness out of shotgun alignments seemingly makes him an odd fit for Sean Payton and Drew Brees’s spread-style offense, but the Saints actually used shotgun formations at the eighth-lowest rate of any team in the NFL last year, according to Football Outsiders. Moreover, New Orleans ranked fourth in average yards-per-play when under center, roughly the same as in the ‘gun, and had one of the smallest gaps in efficiency between the two alignments. Though they still passed 63.4 percent of the time, the Saints are a strong fit for Peterson’s skill set. No wonder Peterson told Bleacher Report earlier this month that he was impressed by Payton’s passion about the dimension the veteran running back would add to the Saints’s offense.
Question mark: Peterson is a 32-year-old running back with 11,747 of the hardest-earned yards in recent NFL history already on his odometer. The jury is out on how effective he could be moving forward.

NFC West: Haason Reddick (R), LB, Cardinals

Opportunity: At this time three years ago, the NFC West was one of the two best divisions in football. The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks had a death grip on the rest of the NFC, but the Arizona Cardinals were right on their heels. Since then, attrition has taken a toll on all three squads; a Cardinals team that went 29-9 with Carson Palmer under center from 2013 to 2015 finished second in the division last year at 7-8-1.
What needed to be addressed: A host of defenders from recent years left in free agency this past offseason. The Cardinals lost Calais Campbell, Kevin Minter, Alex Okafor and Tony Jefferson, who finished first, third, seventh and 10th, respectively, on the team’s defense in Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Approximate Value from 2013 to 2016.
The Cardinals boasted a top-three DVOA defense in three of those four seasons, but to keep that up, they’ll need the best of whoever is left — including Karlos Dansby, who returns at age 35 after three years elsewhere. Arizona desperately needs a young impact defender who can run, cover and hit at all three levels of the defense.
Potential impact: Reddick, a Temple product who put up an outstanding combine performance, has the size and athleticism to run with the Cardinals’ outstanding secondary. The 6-foot-1, 237-pound No. 13 overall pick was among the top-performing linebackers in the 40-yard dash (4.52 seconds), vertical jump (36.5 inches) and broad jump (133 inches). General manager Steve Keim told the media that he expects Reddick to have a “huge” impact, according to the team’s official site — and Reddick’s timetable to contribute has since been accelerated, with linebacker Deone Bucannon slated to start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list.
Question mark: As with Davis, measurables and fit alone don’t guarantee anything in the NFL. Reddick will have to prove that his knack for playmaking in the AAC can translate to the NFL.
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