Everyone spun, Lewis was last. The rain came down with a blast
FP3 was a wet affair in Istanbul, with the rain starting to come down shortly before the session and continuing throughout. It worsened as time went on, and towards the end, the rain was harder than at the beginning. Combined with the lack of grip from the newly resurfaced track, that meant there was very little traction to be found anywhere. Almost every driver had a spin during the session, although incredibly, apart from Antonio Giovinazzi clipping the barrier on the inside of exit of Turn 7 and damaging his front wing endplate, the session was not interrupted. Some drivers like Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Räikkönen had to use their rallying experience to keep the temperatures on the tires with Pierre Gasly also getting in on the action. Sebastian Vettel, meanwhile, had to spin his wheels quite aggressively in a bid to gain some temperature after an off-track excursion. The weather was near 10C all day, and the intermittent showers and wind did not help matters. Most drivers started the session with intermediate tires on, but once McLaren pulled the plug on the wet tires 10 minutes into the session, everyone followed suit. Every driver completed some semblance of running in the torrential conditions, but Lewis Hamilton, George Russell and Nicolas Latifi fail to do any running. Most drivers chose not to run after the rain increased in intensity and with an extra set of intermediate tires for the day, most teams saved it for qualifying. Ultimately, Max Verstappen set the fastest lap of the session and there was talk of qualifying being red flagged if the rain did not go away, but Race Director Michael Masi ultimately decided that the show would go on.
Qualifying
A Boat Would Be a Better Option
As the session began, the rain came back in the form of a drizzle, with standing water in some parts of the track. Red Bull, McLaren, Racing Point, Ferrari, and Haas all gambled on the intermediate tires, while Renault, Mercedes, AlphaTauri, and the Alfa Romeo used the wet. All drivers had trouble finding grip in the early part of the session. Every driver was eventually shown drifting or spinning, but as the session progressed, the considerable amount of standing water at the start was beginning to clear up. Lando Norris completed the first timed lap with a 2:07, followed by Sergio Perez. Meanwhile, McLaren engineers hinted that the intermediates could be viable, but the Mercedes engineers begged to differ by calling more immediate rain on the forecast. Every driver kept struggling for grip as 10 minutes had gone by, Bottas holding P1 with 2:07:001s, while his teammate was 5th. Plenty of drivers had not set a time at that point and time was running out. Alexander Albon kept struggling for grip with less than a quarter of the throttle, showing how delicate the throttle application had to be. And then lightning struck. A red flag was called out on track with 6:56 left after a massive amount of water started to collect on track, causing multiple drivers to spin and aquaplane. With 6:56 left on the clock, it meant there would still be time for 2, maybe 3, laps once the track was cleared. At this point, Esteban Ocon was on top, with Bottas, Lance Stroll, Hamilton, and Perez behind him. Charles Leclerc, Romain Grosjean, Gasly, Russell, and Latifi were all in the bottom 5, under pressure to improve once qualifying resumed under penalty of not going through to Q2. Bottas was 0.886 behind Ocon in P2, while Räikkönen was 3.153 seconds off in P10, and Verstappen was a staggering 4.768 off the best time in P15, unable to improve his position after a spin on his outlap caused his fast lap to be interrupted by the red flag. Russell was in 19th 7 seconds off and his teammate had not even completed a timed lap yet. The Safety Car came out twice to judge the track conditions and after over 30 minutes and a sweeper truck wiping the water off the racing line, the track was deemed to be safe enough to run again. Albon was the first to leave the pits on wet tires, with all cars following him with the same compound. Räikkönen had a massive spin on the outlap, nearly collecting Leclerc upon re-entry. But before we go any further, has anyone in your life told you that lightning does not strike the same place twice? Well… A red flag was called out with 3:30 left in the session, to clear Grosjean’s car, beached just past Turn 1. He lost control of the car and failed to maintain enough momentum to get out of the gravel trap. The red flag only lasted about 5 minutes, but no driver could set a lap time, and 3 more minutes were off the clock now. Verstappen and Leclerc were under even more pressure now, as they were still stuck in P15 and P16. Track evolution would be quite fantastic, however. The Red Bull immediately went 8.6 seconds faster than before, Vettel and Leclerc improved massively and the two Alfa Romeos followed suit. Hamilton had his lap time deleted, which put him P14, one of the lowest results for him in his career in Q1. Bottas also failed to improve his time, but he survived in P9, 9.5 seconds off the pace. Grosjean was unable to set a lap time, and his teammate failed to clear the elimination zone as well. Russell did not make Q2 this time, but he still maintains his perfect qualifying record, now standing at 35-0. Daniil Kvyat had a very hard time on track, with multiple spins, and it meant he failed to clear Q1. During the frantic last laps, a couple of yellow flags were called out on track, but some drivers improved in those sectors. The stewards called a few drivers to debate the matter, as Kevin Magnussen alleged that some drivers did not lift off as they saw the flags. The stewards will have their say on these decisions after the qualifying session is over. Lance Stroll has been cleared, while others were not no lucky, starting with Q1 victim George Russell. Right as the session was ending and the cars were heading back into the pits, Latifi beached his Williams on the gravel.
Orange and Red: Shades of Disappointment
The second part of qualifying began with yellow flags still being flown as marshals were in the process of clearing Latifi’s stranded car - a strange and borderline dangerous decision that was immediately criticized by a number of drivers. Speaking of peculiar decisions, both McLaren drivers came out on the intermediate tire. As the racing line was still very wet, Lando Norris did manage to set the first timed lap of the session but had that time deleted for exceeding track limits. Both he and his teammate Carlos Sainz struggled throughout the session and complained that sustained running on inters caused their rear tires to burn too fast and rear grip to dissipate. With less than a third of the time remaining, the duo pitted for wets in a last-ditch attempt to reach the top 10 but, ultimately, lacked the pace to do so and ended up P11 and P13. The team's day would get even worse, as Sainz was deemed to have impeded Perez and handed a 3 place grid penalty, while Norris lost five places for falling to slow down for yellow flags. Meanwhile, in a demonstration of superb form, the Red Bull boys had a front-row lockout after the initial set of laps while Bottas was half a second down, with reigning Driver’s Champion Hamilton even further back. The Red Bull supremacy, however, was not set in stone. As the 15 cars on the track pushed more water off the racing line with every lap, the conditions were quickly improving and times tumbling. Stroll momentarily rose to P1 while Perez was 3rd fastest. Surprising many, Räikkönen extracted enviable pace from his Alfa Romeo, threatening those at the front during the entire session, and raising eyebrows as he outperformed both Ferrari drivers. Mercedes made progress as well but failed to usurp their rivals and did not appear to be the same F1 juggernaut that they almost always are. With the checkered flag shown, the session came to a close, and Verstappen still held P1, an incredible gap of over 2 seconds to his nearest rival. Fellow Red Bull-family driver Pierre Gasly had to settle for P15, and, as previously mentioned, McLaren failed to make Q3 after spending much of their session on the wrong compound. It was also a disappointing afternoon for Ferrari. The Scuderia had shown strength during the free practice sessions but, when push came to shove, wound up in P12 and P14. Interestingly, however, of the two Prancing Horse drivers, it was Leclerc who struggled with the car more. The Monégasque was 1.5 seconds slower than Vettel, thus ending his long-stretching streak of beating his 4-time WDC companion on Saturdays. Compared to Q1, the second part of qualifying was a quiet affair, as there were only a handful of yellow flags and the drivers seemed to have slowly begun to find the limits of their cars and of the track. Nevertheless, the implications from the session are profound, given that McLaren fell well short of the pace they need if they are to battle for P3 in the Constructor’s Championship. Racing Point, McLaren, and Renault are all separated by a grand total of just one point and a good performance by McLaren on Sunday will be needed if they are to hold on to the other teams, while continuing to lag will see them have to play catch-up in the last 3 rounds remaining after Istanbul. The pressure is on for the Woking squad and their drivers.
Max v Lance: Who Could’ve Guessed?
The weather for Q3 had greatly improved, a beautiful overcast sky showing over Istanbul, the Seven Hills visible in the background. A 4th consecutive pole position for Red Bull in Istanbul looked inevitable as Max Verstappen was seconds quicker than the nearest competitor. But conditions had changed and it remained to be seen if Q2 form would hold. Red Bull showed early on just how eager they were, coming out to complete their initial timed laps first, followed by both Alfa Romeos and both Mercedes. For the first set of laps, everyone was on the blue striped wet tire other than Ocon and Perez. It was a strange call as Verstappen’s onboard shots showed that there were still puddles on track. As he crossed the line, Verstappen set the benchmark at 1:52.3 but was quickly pipped by Perez, who went 2 tenths faster on intermediates, a rare opportunity to see the fabled “tire cross-over” in action. Red Bull was quick to respond as Verstappen set 2 purples sectors on his follow-up lap but ultimately abandoned his lap to come into the pits, instructed by his team to switch to the faster Intermediate tires, as the intermediate was now clearly the faster tire. Both sides of the Mercedes garage struggled today, Hamilton’s non-running in FP3 apparently hindering his progress, at one point the #44 being 7 seconds off the pace. The gap did shrink as qualifying went on, but the struggles still continued. Hamilton was not convinced the Intermediates were the right tire, eventually reluctantly coming into the pits for the green stripes at the behest of his engineer. It was all for naught as Lewis finished P6 with a 1:52.560, 5 seconds off the pole position time. Bottas struggled even more than Hamilton in the dynamic weather conditions, finishing P9 with a 1:53.358. Racing Point’s strategy call to place Sergio Perez on the intermediates turned out to be a master stroke. As other teams pitted to switch, Perez spent additional time on track, bringing in valuable information for the team. With the puddles draining away from the racing line, Perez improved his lap time by 2.7 seconds, Stroll behind him for an incredible Racing Point 1-2. But it was not over yet. Verstappen came out of the pits on a mission and after dominating the free practice sessions, and he looked determined to claim pole position on the wet Istanbul Park. Fate, however, had other plans, as he came out of the pits and immediately protested over the radio that his tires had neither grip nor temperature. It got even worse when he found himself behind Räikkönen on his outlap, the much slower car hampering Verstappen’s tire warming strategy. Verstappen could not pass initially and had to finish his first out lap still behind the Alfa Romeo, and as he had enough time for another outlap, he waited to set his final fast lap, eventually finishing the session in 2nd place. Lance Stroll continued on after setting his preliminary time and further improved on the treacherous track, he dropped his teammate to P2 and eventually claimed his maiden pole position with an impressive 1:47.765. Lance Stroll also became the first Canadian to start from pole since Jacques Villeneuve at the 1997 European GP. The final qualifying order, on which very few people would have bet on before the session started, was Stroll, Verstappen, Perez, Albon, Daniel Ricciardo, Hamilton, Ocon, Räikkönen, Bottas and Antonio Giovinazzi.
Looking Forward to the Race
Strategy was the name of the game today, it led to Racing Point and Lance Stroll’s historic pole position, but great strategy calls on Saturday will not guarantee success on Sunday, even more so in changing conditions. Racing Point has had its fair share of dubious strategy calls this year, most recently throwing away a podium for Perez at the Emilia Romagna GP in Imola. But hopefully they will again do well tomorrow and build on their Saturday glory. Verstappen has been electric all weekend and all odds pointed toward him getting pole until he came out in traffic and struggled with the temperatures on his intermediates. He was utterly dejected with the result, clearly feeling he could have done better, but tomorrow will be a different day, and while Lance Stroll is known on the paddock for his great starts, Verstappen is already considered one of the best drivers on the grid and should be in a great position to fight for the lead with Stroll. The weather forecast for tomorrow shows similar temperatures at 14C / 57F with a 50% chance of scattered showers, which heavily points to a wet track tomorrow. As both Mercedes struggled with the cold conditions, it is not inconceivable that they will not be able to challenge for the lead. But a wise Formula 1 fan does not discount the Black Arrows that easily, so we will watch them closely once the red lights are out tomorrow. If they do struggle, Verstappen could have a great shot at victory, provided the Racing Points fail to match their Saturday pace. Renault have shown potential to grab important points this weekend, as McLaren and Ferrari will be starting further behind them. A hot take to finish this preview before the race tomorrow: both Alfas are in the points, as tomorrow could see a replay of the battle of attrition and longevity we saw in the 2019 German GP. There remains a slim possibility that Alfa could snatch a podium and become the eighth different team to do so this season. All questions will be answered tomorrow on track.
Cover Art! Story Summary: After years of beatings and neglect from her parents, 13-year old Frances was summoned with her entire class to the fantastical world of Durannon to fight the monsters invading the human kingdoms and defeat the "Demon King." If she succeeds, she might have the home she never had. But if she can't overcome the trauma and self-loathing inflicted on her by her abusive parents, Frances will die, and be summoned back to the home she escaped, on the day that she left. Teaser: Let's say the Grand Army of Erlenberg isn't going to be a Grand Army for much longer. [The Beginning] [<=Book 2 Chapter 27 (91)] [Chapter Index and Blurb] [[Book 2 Chapter 29 (93)=>] Index of Windwhistler Family Members Art of Frances's friends, Elizabeth, Martin, Ayax and Timur. Courtesy of RianneDraws :) Fractured Song Discord Server so you can ask me questions and just hang with other fans. We have a meme channel. It has memes of the serial. As part of their preparations, the Grand Army of Erlenberg had dug earthworks on both sides of the Silverstream River. Comprised of a thick earthen wall about the height of two humans, there were a total of six V-shaped earthworks, three on each side of the river bank with the tip pointed towards the north. Each earthwork was packed with musketeers, cannons and soldiers to defend them. Frances and her company were, to their surprise, not on any one of those Earthworks. Instead, they’d been placed far on the left flank of the army, along with a mix of cavalry and infantry. The cavalry stood in front of Frances and her company, who were all on foot. There were about a thousand riders armed with pistols and sabers. In front of the horsemen, with the teenagers and the convicts, were about five hundred musketeers. Their commander, called Helena, didn’t even introduce herself to the teens. When the group and their soldiers arrived at their position, they were met with a messenger. In a crisp tone, and a slightly apologetic wince, he said, “You’re to follow my troops and shoot any enemy you see.” “Is that it?” Elizabeth asked. The messenger coughed, “Look, you’re not really part of our army and we appreciate the firepower, but our plan is to keep the orcs back with our musketfire.” “Wait, what if their cavalry charges us?” Martin asked. “You have pikes so you should be fine, and we have our own cavalry to skirmish with them. Look, you kids don’t have to worry. We’re ready for them.” With that the messenger rode off. Frances briefly thought about what she’d been told and turned to Ginger. “Ginger, how many battles have you been through?” Scratching her hair, the convict frowned, “A lot. Um, I was fighting before the Otherworlders arrived. I also did some skirmishing at Meluthen. I was also at Westfall Pass and Kwent.” Frances pursed her lips, and turning to her friends, pulled them into a huddle. “You thinking what I’m thinking?” she whispered. “That you have bad feeling about this and that you’re right? Yes,” said Ayax. “Well, that and I’m also thinking of letting Ginger take command, or at least be our advisor,” said Frances. Elizabeth nodded. “Probably a good idea to let her lead.” “Not quite. She should advise. They are our company. If we let her command, they’ll question our authority and I really, really don’t want that to happen,” said Martin. They all quickly agreed with the knight, broke the huddle and faced Ginger, Frances glanced at her friends, and realized they were all looking at her. “Alright, we’d like you to advise on how to get through this,” said Frances. Ginger blinked. “Me?” At Frances’s nod, Ginger squawked, “I’m a convict!” “Ginger, we’ve commanded, and we’ve fought, but not in a major battle.” Frances looked the convict in the eye. “Do you think right now that we can hold against a cavalry charge?” “No. This whole section of the line is going to break,” said Ginger. “Then what do you think we should do?” Elizabeth asked. The convict rolled her eyes. “Run.” “Not an option, we have orders,” said Martin, arms crossed. “Besides, we can’t run when our own horsemen are behind us.” Ginger eyed the horsemen and sighed. “Fuck. Well we’ll have to fight our way out of it after we hold their charge with our pikes.” “If we stay close, hold a square formation with pikes on the outside, maybe we can withdraw to the earthworks?” Elizabeth suggested. The convict nodded. “That’s probably our best bet, but I wouldn’t even think about going to the earthworks. We need to just head for the woods.” Ayax hissed, “We’d be abandoning our army—” “Twelve thousand untested, unblooded troops against fifteen thousand of Antipades’s veterans? We don’t stand a chance,” Ginger snapped. “We’ll stand a better chance if we stick to our friendly forces, though,” Elizabeth argued. “Let’s see how the army is doing first, before we decide where to withdraw,” said Martin in a calm voice. Frances swallowed. Her instincts were screaming at her to just lead her soldiers away, but that just wasn’t an option. No, they had to fight this battle, a battle they had no say or control over. One they had a good chance of losing. “I think we should examine how the situation develops,” said Frances. She took a deep breath. “We do have a duty and we should try to do it, but if the situation looks hopeless, we’ll withdraw.” There were nods at that, though, nobody was completely happy, least of all Frances herself. She had no idea if she had just condemned herself, her friends and her soldiers to die. They stood, or sat, in formation for what seemed like forever, though, Frances could tell by the sun’s movement that it’d been only about two hours. It was still morning, though the sun was much higher now. Given how wet the ground was thanks to the spring rains, there weren’t any dust clouds. However, nobody could miss the mass of soldiers approaching them. Weapons glinted in the sunlight. Hooves and feet stomped on the ground. They were clearly closing for battle. Frances watched the approaching force with a spyglass that Edana had given her for a present. The attackers facing her were mostly infantry. They included: goblin light skirmishers with small muskets and crossbows, goblin wolfrider packs, a few groups of orcs and trolls. As they continued to march toward them, the Erlenberg cannon started to fire. Huge gouges were suddenly carved into the ranks of the enemy army as the Erlenberg cannon skipped their shot across the wet ground. Frances could hear the ships off the coast also opening up. She turned her spyglass across the battlefield to the other side of the river and blinked. The Alavari were charging. Orc boar cavalry, goblin wolfriders, centaurs with lances and carbines, raced across the field. There were undoubtedly infantry following them. Somehow, they continued to charge, even as Erlenberg cannon cut down bloody gashes in their formation, but they only hit from one direction. Was the fleet not firing? A closer look with her spyglass revealed what was going on. Thick, grey smoke, magical or artificial in nature was rising along the far eastern edge of the coast. It was so thick it seemed to obscure the sight of the ships at sea. Frances turned her attention back to the enemies in front of her, and found that they weren’t advancing any longer. They’d stopped, and were lying down, just out of effective bullet range. Moreover, now that they were lying down, Frances could see that there weren’t a lot of Alavari facing them. It came together all at once. “They’re going for an all-out attack on the right side!” Elizabeth gasped. “Now can we run?” Ginger asked. “We have to go to them,” Martin said. “Wait!” Frances grabbed Martin and Elizabeth’s shoulders. “I don’t think we can change this! We’ll just get killed.” Martin shook his head. “Frances, you don’t know that. We need to try—” “Hate to break it to you, but she’s right,” said Ginger, pointing at the other side of the river. The Erlenberg line was spitting musketballs, and hundreds of Alavari riders were dead. And yet, the charge didn’t stop. A wave of panic spread through the Erlenberg line as the Alavari army, moving like one great beast, cut into their foes. They clawed through the lines of footsoldiers and musketeers, cutting down fleeing troops. Some squads and companies tried to rally around flags and standards, but the orc war pigs and centaurs surrounded them, and crushed them beneath their hooves. Meanwhile, as harpies harassed the gunners firing from the earthworks, goblins and trolls scaled the fortifications, leaping onto the platforms and attacking the soldiers manning them. Tearing her eyes from the scene, Frances could see the other soldiers' shock, could see her own convict soldiers nervously backing glancing at each other. The horsemen behind them? They were running, riding away toward the direction of Erlenberg. Small squads at first, and then full companies. Frances could see officers shouting at their soldiers, but they weren’t being listened to. “Where’s the general?” Martin asked. Frances couldn’t see the general’s standard. It should have emblazoned the Erlenberg coat of arms, a city surrounded by ocean. Only, that standard was fleeing, with the cavalry. Elizabeth stammered, “They’re abandoning us.” Frances grimaced. “Withdraw to the camp! Everybody together!” The camp on the left side of the river was chaos. Alavari and humans were grabbing food, supplies, anything really. Frances, her friends, and their company only just managed to get out of the mess thanks to having packed their supplies into two large wagons. “How long until we get to Erlenberg?” Ginger asked. “Five days. Assuming we can outrun their cavalry,” Martin muttered, panting heavily. The teens all had horses, but they didn’t want to exhaust their animals. Not unless they got into trouble. That and Frances and Elizabeth had hitched their horses to the wagons they’d borrowed. Every convict-soldier carried food, but the wagons carried the rest of their supplies and more importantly, ammunition. “Elizabeth, you and Martin were studying the maps. Do you think we can outrun their cavalry?” Frances asked. Elizabeth and Martin exchanged glances, before Martin said, “If we get to the forest tonight, we might stand a chance. They’ll have to sleep too.” “Tomorrow, we should try to rally as many soldiers as we can and try to make a stand there, slow them down a bit,” said Elizabeth. “Wait, slow them down? How are we going to do that?” Frances asked. “Guerilla tactics. We hit, and disappear back in the forest,” Elizabeth explained. “They outnumber us, though, Elizabeth,” said Frances. Martin looked back from where he was marching. “We need to do something. They will reach the walls of Erlenberg and they will not hold. I know you want everybody to stay safe, but if we retreat now the fighting will move into the city.” “I understand but…” Frances thought about the decision, tried to think through the possibilities, but honestly she had no idea how to act, and what to do in this situation. “Ayax, what do you think?” “I have even less combat experience than you three. So I think we should ask the professional here,” said Ayax, thumbing at Ginger. The convict seemed to panic for a second, before swallowing. “Um, yeah about that. I’d run for the city, but… if you really want to fight, I’d rather fight in a forest than at the city. City-fighting is brutal.” “Forest it is then,” said Elizabeth. Martin nodded after her, and was followed slowly after by Frances and Ayax. Ginger watched this and frowned. Coughing, she walked ahead of the teens and turned around. “Holdup, who here is actually in charge? I thought it was you who was in charge,” said Ginger, pointing at Frances. “Me? Oh no. I… I’m not in charge. We… we make decisions together,” Frances squeaked, waving her arms. “Well, we do agree with you a lot, cuz, but that’s because you tend to have a pretty good head on your shoulders,” said Ayax. “Except you seem to trust… Elizabeth and Martin right?—Yeah, you trust them with military stuff. So who will be making the call in battle?” “Elizabeth,” said Frances and Ayax. “Frances,” said Elizabeth and Martin. The four stared at each other as they realized what they all had said. “Elizabeth, you are good at leading troops. I saw you at Freeburg, you had everybody rallied to you and following your lead,” said Frances. Elizabeth shook her head. “But you came up with the plan, and I’m the youngest of everybody here! You come up with all of our plans!” “Yes, but you lead us through them, Elizabeth,” said Frances. Martin nodded. “Actually Frances is right. I think it should be Elizabeth too.” “Wait seriously?” Elizabeth stammered. The only reply she got was a bunch of nods. “So that’s decided. Elizabeth has final say then,” said Ginger. “What are your orders?” Elizabeth took a moment to brush her hair out of her eyes, and stand straighter. “Get to the trees. We’ll find as many people as we can and rally them to our cause. Then we’ll delay the Alavari army as long as we can.” “Aye,” said Frances, gently clasping and squeezing her friend’s shoulder. The company had just reached the edge of the Pinewoods when Frances felt her hand mirror vibrate. Reaching into her belt, she pulled out the mirror to find the face of her Grandmother staring back at her. “Oh Gods of Sea and Sand, Frances, you’re alive. Where’s Ayax and your friends?” Eleanor stammered. “We’re all alive. We’re going to the Pinewoods. We’re going to try to slow them down as much as possible. “How many do you have?” Eleanor asked. “A company, but we think we can gather more soldiers and use the Pinewoods to our advantage. Grandma, you need to reinforce the city’s defenses and evacuate the civilians. General Antigones is on his way to the city.” “I’ll do that. But please, in the meantime, stay safe.” Eleanor pursed her lips. “Call you mother. You need to let her know. You know…” “I will.” Frances glanced ahead at the treeline. “When I get the chance. Thanks, Grandma.” “Good luck, Frances.” The Pinewoods existed in Erlenberg for one reason and one reason only, to provide a ready supply of ship-quality woods for the repair of Erlenberg’s many ships. This was why the majority of the woods were the eponymous pine, firs, oak and teak. So unlike a typical forest, where the ground is bumpy and curled with tree roots and boulders, where bushes grow at the foot of trees and smaller shrubs and fallen trees split the undergrowth, and where squirrels, birds and all manner of animals frolic, the Pinewoods were… different. The best way Frances could describe it was that there was a kind of ‘fake’ feeling to the woods. She remembered being in Leipmont’s forests and to a national park in one of her school trips. The woods here seemed more open, with very clear paths running between clumps of trees. The sound of animal life wasn’t there and there were places where she could see quite far into the forest. This was because the trees were all the same size and type and all planted with fairly uniform spacing. They also weren’t alone. The first night they were in the forest, Frances had been on guard with their sentries, and several squads of soldiers joined them, drawn by their campfires. The next day, as they marched deeper in, they ran into more hungry and tired soldiers. Most only had their weapons and the clothes on their back. Some didn’t even have that. They didn’t care that they were agreeing to follow a bunch of teens leading a group of convicts, they just wanted to be safe and fed. By mid-afternoon, their company had tripled in size to a force of over three hundred as they had picked up a group of musketeers who’d fled, along with another group of footsoldiers. The teens had enough soldiers to send a scouting party to find a fjord so they could get across the river. Frances was leading this scouting party of ten foot soldiers along the riverbank, with Ayax bringing up the rear. Martin and Elizabeth had told them that there was a bridge ahead they needed to secure. As they approached the bridge, Frances’s eyes scanned the surroundings. The bridge itself was a sturdy structure of stone, with low, interspersed columns, carrying the arched structure over the wide river. It had no railings, and divots in the stonework showed its frequent use. Taking a deep breath, Frances signalled for her squad to halt, pushed magic into her barding and ran across. Nobody shot at her, nobody showed themselves. She reached the other side without harassment. Even after a brief lookaround, she couldn’t find anybody else. Seeing the area was clear, she signalled the rest of her squad to come. “Stay alert and set up a perimeter. Can one of you go back and tell Elizabeth to bring the rest of our troops up?” Frances asked. “Aye ma’am,” said one of the convict soldiers, a lithe girl who couldn’t have been more than Frances’s age. “Just Frances, thank you.” She peered back into the forest, crouching low close to a tree, watching the silent forest. “Ma’am—Frances, is it true you’re an Otherworlder?” asked one of the convicts, a grizzled, muscular man in an awkward fitting helmet. “Yes. Though, some of us like to call ourselves, the Displaced,” Frances explained. “Is it true that your world has flying machines and not a single Alavari? That even poor people own two story houses?” he asked. “Yes. Though, we do have… less fortunate people in our world.” Frances smiled. “What’s your name.” “Gareth. Used to be a farm hand. You know, times got tough, debts piled up,” he sighed. “Don’t have a home to go back to, unlike you, but at least my family’s safe.” Frances winced. “Durannon is my home. I’m one of those… less fortunate Otherworlders.” She glanced back at the forest and narrowed her eyes. “Look sharp. Someone’s approaching. Hold your fire.” The squad pressed against the trees, peering at the approaching figures. There were Alavari and humans, about twenty. All of them were out of breath, crashing through the woods on horses so tired they were foaming at the mouth. They were heading right toward them and were nearing their position. Frances stepped out, her wand raised. “Are you of Erlenberg?” The riders yanked on their reigns, staring at her. “Yeah. Who—the hell are you?” one asked. “Frances Windwhistler, Otherworlder mage,” said Frances. “Well mage or not we need to get away. We’re being pursued by goblin wolf-riders,” “How many?” Frances asked. “Fifty. So unless—” “Gareth! Tell Elizabeth that the bridge is going to be contested by fifty wolf-riders and I need reinforcements!” Frances turned to the riders. “We have three companies heading this way. Were there any behind them?” The riders blinked and shook their heads. “No-" “Then dismount and get your carbines ready. We’re going to hold the bridge until our allies arrive," said Frances. Ayax smirked. “Or you can run like you did a few days ago.” The riders flinched and dismounted, taking positions alongside the rest of the squad. Frances pulled Ayax aside. “Ayax can I ask you something?” “Too on the nose?” the troll asked. Frances blinked, realized her cousin was talking about her comment and shook her head. “No, I think you were right. If you went further I would have been worried. What I wanted to ask you about was if you have any spells that affect a large area?” “None, but I can fire a pretty good bolt of magic,” said Ayax. “Alright. Everybody, fire at will, but pick your shots! Save your ammunition.” Frances pulled out her spyglass and scanned the tree. Then she saw it, wolves bounding over the undergrowth, weaving between trees. Goblin wolf-riders were amazingly mobile scout cavalry. Armed with shortbows, but also increasingly pistols, Frances knew they’d have to get very close to get their shots off. What they relied on were numbers and psychology. It was rather terrifying when an unnaturally large wolf charges toward you after all, especially when they are carrying a rider. Frances however, planned to turn the tables. Ivy’s Sting in hand, she began to sing. Ayax glanced at her cousin as she recognized the aria. As it always was, there was a primal quality to it. It was hard to pin down why. If she had to say, though, Edana’s song sounded a lot like a shriek, a banshee or ghost venting its anger. Frances’s aria however, was somehow more delicate, reedier and almost mournful, as if the notes she chose would never be resolved. Until the last chord, followed by a thunderous crack that blinded the soldiers. Ayax blinked away spots to see the wolf riders in disarray, their mounts cowering, fleeing in all directions, out of control. “Fire!” Ayax bellowed, she threw her first spell, smashing a goblin into a tree with a sickening thud. The convict soldiers and the cavalry added their own fire, and the quiet forest became split with the crack of muskets. In the forefront stood Frances, throwing rocks at the goblins with force enough to split armor, sending bolts of fire that made wolves howl. Soon, the goblin riders fled, much of their number down and groaning. “By Amura and Rathon, we won!” gasped a convict-soldier. “Ahahah look at them run!” exclaimed a troll rider. Frances took a quick sip from her hip flask. “Reload and ready for a counterattack. Keep your eyes peeled. Does anybody see our reinforcements?” “We’re here!” Elizabeth yelled, at the head of a marching column of soldiers. She rode across the bridge, dismounted and blinked. “Oh? You ran into some friendly cavalry.” “Survivors from the first day. How many did you bring?” Frances asked. “One company. The rest are bringing up our supplies. They’ll be here in ten minutes. The horses can’t go any faster than that,” Elizabeth swallowed. “We have a problem, though. We saw some troll and orc foot scouts. So we don’t know how many we are being pursued by.” “You said you fought about fifty wolf riders?” Ginger asked, jogging up to them. “Yeah, why?” Frances asked. Ginger grimaced. “There may be more behind them. Goblin wolf-riders are great scouts but they wouldn’t have attacked unless they knew they had serious back up. We’re talking about orcs on war pigs or even a full regiment of foot soldiers with archers and musketeers.” Frances winced. “So we need to decide if we want to hold the bridge so we can cross it or retreat and keep on the west bank of the river.” Elizabeth pursed her lips. “We hold the bridge. It’s only ten minutes and we need to get to the west bank.” She glanced at Ginger, “You don’t agree. Why?” Ginger stiffened and her eyes narrowed. “Look. I get that we need to get to the west bank, but we don’t want a fight. We can fight, but we really don’t want to get into one.” Elizabeth shook her head. “You’re right, but Erlenberg’s west side faces the Silverstream and is defensible. They don’t need us there. However, Erlenberg’s north doesn’t even have a moat. We need to slow them down from reaching there.” “Elizabeth, you’re right, but we have enemy forces behind us too. What if we get sandwiched between the two?” Frances asked. Elizabeth frowned, “Ayax?” The troll swallowed, tail swishing back and forth. Looking Elizabeth in the eye, she said, “Liz, I don’t know. Just do what you think is best. I trust you.” Elizabeth blinked, and stared at Ayax for a second, unmoving, until the troll broke contact, looking away. “Thanks, Ayax.” Elizabeth closed her eyes. “Here’s what we’ll do.” Author's note: So I will be taking a break from updates on Thursday this week as I am coughing a storm and he also used the entire weekend working on an important job application instead of writing. Hopefully, it's not the-you-know-what, but I am hanging in there quite alright and I'm off work until Friday. I wrote a short character sketch below to make it up and I am thinking of making a lore-update to flesh out a few things about Erlenberg I wasn't able to earlier. Question of the update: What's the worst thing you've ever tasted that wasn't actual feces (so it was food that was prepared and so Chinese herbal medicine doesn't count)? So if the question wasn't a hint, I'm Asian. Specifically Chinese, though, I actually live in Canada so I'm apparently Chinese diaspora? Whatever the term is I consider myself Chinese-Canadian. My mom however has a habit of making these Chinese soups that... I just don't like. She's an amazing cook, but she tends to put herbs in the soup and yeesh, never like em, still don't, still have to drink them. Character answers: Frances: ... If... if we're excluding the times I was trash-hunting, and if my biological mother and Dan weren't making me eat scraps.... then I think the worst thing I've ever had was mom's first attempt at poutine. Elizabeth: Edana's bad at cooking? Frances: No! She's not bad at cooking, but the dish is from our world and well, you know how easily people in Durannon can mess up fries. Martin: Ohhhhh yeah I remember that. You took two days to drill my cooks to make good fries. (See chapter 63). Frances: blushes Oh yeah I did... Ginger: Fries? Ayax: I'll remind cuz to make you some. They're really good. Elizabeth: Anyway, so I'm allergic to almonds, but I didn't know that I was for the longest time. When II was a kid, I tried this dish called um... I don't know it's a Chinese dish with almond tea and well, after I drank it, I started choking. I remember it was good, but um... yeah. Can't look at almonds the same way again. Martin: shivers. My mom's... that is my Countess mom, is really really bad at cooking. She's so bad that we tried one of her pies and we very nearly broke our teeth on it. I felt really bad for her. She's really good at most things, but cooking is just not her strong suit. Ayax: How did you nearly break your teeth on a pie? Martin: I don't know! She added something into it that turned it into like... this hard thing. Ayax: Snaps her fingers. OHHHH she made flour ornaments. She must have forgotten the butter and added like salt to it and then when she baked it so it turned hard. Frances: Mile long stare at Martin, But... but how do you forget butter in a pie crust and add salt... I ...how? Ayax: laughs I think the worst thing I've eaten was my adoptive little brother Benjamin's first attempt at cookies. Um.... let's just say... he didn't cook them very well, and thought um... thought that THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS NOT ENOUGH SUGAR! Now... I have a sweet tooth like any other, but that... I think Edana could set these cookies on fire there was so much sugar in them. Martin and Elizabeth laugh whilst Frances giggles and Ayax beams proudly. Ginger sitting there looking a little lost. Right that's the character sketch, enjoy everybody!
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 30th, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance. Several polls are in the field, so we won't have a full picture of the field until next week when more are expected to be released. Until then, here are the polls since August 16th.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (September 2nd, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance. With the conclusion of both major parties’ nominating conventions, pollsters scrambled into the field to conduct polls of swing states and the national race. The result has been a slew of high quality pollsters releasing their numbers on Wednesday as well as today, which paint a picture of the electorate right after the candidates are expected to have received a temporary convention bounce.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - 538's runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 16, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance. This is likely to be one of the last clear snapshots of polling until at least mid-September. Historically speaking, the party conventions impart a statistically significant 'bump' in candidates' poll numbers. This convention bounce averages around 5 points for candidates (though some candidates have far surpassed this number), but the trend of high bounces has seen a decline in recent elections. With increased coverage of each party during their respective conventions (DNC: August 17-20, RNC: August 24-27), and this year's conventions taking place in a mostly-remote setting, it is hard to predict how large or any impact on the polls will be.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
General Election Polling Discussion Thread (Aug 9, 2020)
Introduction
Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models. As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
FiveThirtyEight - this model isn't active yet (though Nate's been sharing some results from it, so it may be coming out soonTM ), but it's the original model from Nate Silver that debuted in 2008 and really kicked off this genre of race prognostication. For now, here's the polling aggregates that they've set up in lieu of a now-cast (which is likely not returning to the model this year). Will likely also include Senate and House projections like in past years.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
Also known as a Canadian, a Super Yankee is a bet on five selections consisting of 26 bets – ten doubles, ten trebles, five fourfolds and a fivefold accumulator. Heinz The Heinz bet is a six-selection bet consisting of 57 bets: 15 doubles, 20 trebles, 15 fourfolds, six fivefolds and a one sixfold accumulator. Horse racing is one of the most popular sports to bet on in the world with billions of dollars being wagered around the globe every year. In Canada, you can bet on horses online at many of the ... Horse racing is one of the most popular and oldest forms of betting. Also known as “sport of kings”, horse racing dates back to the ancient Greeks racing with horses as far back as 700 BC. The sport is extremely popular all over the world. More so, horse racing is a pastime that is enjoyed at Canada sports betting sites. A Canadian (also sometimes referred to as a Super Yankee) consists of 26 bets on five selections i.e. 10 doubles, 10 trebles, five fourfold accumulators and one fivefold accumulator. Two or more selections must be successful to have a return. A £1 Canadian costs £26. A £1 each-way Canadian costs £52. Bet anywhere, any time with Canada’s most trusted way to wager on the races Welcome to HPIbet; Why ... BET MOHAWK LIVE RACING. BET WOODBINE LIVE RACING. on HPIbet. on HPIbet. BET & WATCH LIVE RACING. HPIbet Industry News. Carryovers. Blood-Horse. Paulick Report ... What is a Canadian Bet? A Canadian bet is where you pick 5 selections. It is also known as a Super Yankee. The bet is then made up of 1 fivefold, 5 fourfolds, 10 trebles, and 10 doubles. Some bookmakers will offer an All Winner Bonus if all five selections win which is applied to the total return. One of the world's leading online gambling companies. The most comprehensive In-Play service. Deposit Bonus for New Customers. Watch Live Sport. We stream over 100,000 events. Bet on Sportsbook and Casino. What is a Canadian Bet? A wager on 5 selections consisting of 26 bets: 10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 four-fold's and a five-fold accumulator. The canadian, also known as a super yankee, is a bet where all runners have an equal weight on determining the return from the wager. Very similar to the Lucky 31, the only difference being the 5 missing single ... Horse racing remains one of the most popular sports for the betting community and in some parts of the world, it is second only to football in terms of the money wagered across a calendar year. In Canada, it is possible to bet on horse racing using one of the authorized sportsbooks and it retains a huge following across the country. Canadian bets can be placed on a wide range of sports, including but not limited to football and horse racing. For the purposes of this example, let's take football as the sport being bet upon. A bettor looking to place a Canadian bet makes five selections from the weekend's football. These selections are: Manchester City to beat Everton
